Tag: Workplace Return

As the pandemic-induced rise of remote work has lowered office demand and occupancy rates, building repurposing projects are on the rise—and the nation’s mayors are exploring ways to revitalize their downtowns and damaged tax bases. (Commercial Property Executive, Jan. 16 | CBRE Research, Dec. 2 | New York magazine, Dec. 29)

Growing Threat to Municipal Tax Bases

• The president of the U.S. Conference of Mayors, Miami Mayor Francis Xavier Suarez, above, will discuss the issue of how cities are responding to the economic impact of hybrid work arrangements during The Real Estate Roundtable’s Jan. 24 business meeting in Washington.

• This week’s National Conference of Mayors Winter Meeting included a session on “Bringing Life Back to Downtown: Opportunities for Office Conversions” with the Mayors of Hartford, Pittsburgh and Birmingham.  

• Additionally, members of the Ohio Mayors Alliance, a bipartisan group of mayors representing the state’s 30 largest cities, recently issued a report that identified remote work’s economic threat to municipal revenue as among their top concerns for 2023. (Dayton Daily News, Dec. 19)
• A Jan. 19 editorial in the Washington Post focuses on the national problem of hybrid work for downtown areas and suggests paths to recovery, including the need to speed up permitting, rezoning and easing of restrictions. “Cities must adapt to this new reality or risk a downward spiral of falling commercial property values, lower taxes on those buildings and ghost downtowns that could lead to increased crime and homelessness,” the editorial states.
• Employees working full-paid days from home increased to about 30 percent from 5 percent before the pandemic, according to a July 21 panel on “Vulnerable Cities Facing Work from Home Realities” from the Volcker Alliance and the Penn Institute for Urban Research.

Federal Agencies & Remote Work

• Federal government employees were recently urged to return to their agency offices by Washington, D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser, who called on President Biden to urge more federal workers back to the workplace and convert underutilized commercial real estate spaces into affordable housing. (Roundtable Weekly, Jan. 6)

• Mayor Bowser’s views reiterated a letter sent on Dec. 12 by The Roundtable to President Joe Biden about the ongoing, harmful economic impacts of widespread remote work on cities, local tax bases, and small businesses—and how work-from-home policies by federal agencies threaten to magnify these negative economic and social consequences. (Roundtable letter | GlobeSt and CoStar, Dec. 15) 

• Legislation introduced in the House of Representatives last week would require all federal agencies to revert to pre-pandemic office arrangements that were in effect on December 31, 2019 and give employees 30 days to return to their offices. [Roundtable Weekly, Jan. 13 and Bill text of the SHOW UP Act (H.R. 139)]
• Any federal order to mandate government workers back to their offices could be complicated by federal worker labor unions, which support flexible hybrid arrangements. (GlobeSt, Jan. 17 and (TechTarget,  Jan. 12)

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve released its “Beige Book” this week, which reports on national economic conditions. The report stated, “Commercial real estate activity slowed slightly, on average, with more notable weakening in the office market.” Additionally, some bankers reported to the Fed that higher borrowing costs had begun to dampen commercial lending. (Beige Book national summary, Jan. 18 and GlobeSt, Jan. 20)

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Legislation introduced in the House this week would require all federal agencies to revert to pre-pandemic office arrangements that were in effect on December 31, 2019 and give employees 30 days to return to their offices. The bill, if enacted, would also require the Biden administration to provide Congress with a plan to mitigate the negative impacts of remote work and report on agencies’ plans for federal property leases. [Bill text of (H.R. 139)]

SHOW UP Act

• The Stopping Home Office Work’s Unproductive Problems (SHOW UP) Act—introduced this week by House Committee on Oversight and Accountability Chairman James Comer (R-KY)—reflects the views recently expressed by The Real Estate Roundtable to President Joe Biden about the importance of getting more federal workers back to the workplace. (GlobeSt, Jan. 13  and Roundtable letter, Dec. 12, 2022)
• The Dec. 12, 2022 letter from Roundtable Chair John Fish and President & CEO Jeff DeBoer urged the administration to consider the consequences of federal agencies’ promotion of permanent remote work—and how it magnifies ongoing, harmful economic impacts on cities, local tax bases, and small businesses. The Roundtable letter also noted how agencies should consider how hybrid work arrangements directly affect governmental service delivery and labor productivity. (Roundtable Weekly, Dec. 2 and Dec. 16, 2022)
• The SHOW UP Act would also require the administration to report to Congress on how pandemic-era telework levels affected agencies’ missions, along with federal property lease plans. (Federal News Network, Jan. 11)
• Similar legislation was introduced in the last Congress by former Rep. Yvette Herrell (R-NM) to address how expanded, pandemic-era telework arrangements negatively impacted agencies’ missions. (One-page backgrounder and Federal News Network, May 20, 2022)

Federal Agencies’ Leases

• Washington, D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser also recently called on President Biden to get more federal workers back to the workplace and convert underutilized commercial real estate spaces into affordable housing. (Roundtable Weekly, Jan. 6)
• President Biden commented on federal return-to-the-workplace efforts in his March 2022 State of the Union address, above. “It’s time for America to get back to work and fill our great downtowns again with people. People working from home can feel safe and begin to return to their offices. We’re doing that here in the federal government. The vast majority of federal workers will once again work in person,” Biden said. (White House transcript, March 1, 2022)
• A General Accounting Office (GAO) survey last year reported that 24 federal agencies planned to reduce their leased space. Sixteen agencies surveyed said they would reduce the number of leases and 19 planned to reduce square footage over the next three years. (GlobeSt, Sept. 15, 2022 and GAO Report, Sep. 7, 2022)
• The GAO survey noted that “… in a post-COVID-19 environment agencies are likely to significantly reduce their demand for federal real estate due to changes to telework and remote policies.” A footnote in the report added, “GSA leases typically have a date after which GSA can terminate the lease with as little as 90 days’ notice.” (Full GAO report)

In addition to the Washington, DC region, cities throughout the nation are responding to the impact of hybrid work arrangements on local communities and tax bases. Roundtable members will hear about this significant issue during our Jan. 24 State of the Industry Meeting in Washington from Miami Mayor Francis Xavier Suarez, who also serves as president of the U.S. Conference of Mayors.

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Washington, DC Mayor Muriel Browser this week reiterated views expressed by The Real Estate Roundtable to President Biden about getting more federal workers back to the workplace and converting underutilized commercial real estate spaces into affordable housing. (ABC News, Jan. 2 and Roundtable letter, Dec. 12, 2022)

Federal Employees & Remote Work

• “The federal government represents one-quarter of D.C.’s prepandemic jobs and owns or leases one-third of D.C.’s office space,” Bowser, above, said in her third inaugural address on Jan. 2. “We need decisive action by the White House to either get most federal workers back to the office most of the time, or to realign their vast property holdings for use by the local government, by nonprofits, by businesses and by any user willing to revitalize it.” She added that converting office space into housing is the key to unlocking the potential of a reimagined, more vibrant downtown. (MarketWatch, Jan. 4)
• Prominent DC office landlords sent a letter on Nov. 28 to the District’s chief financial officer about eroding local market conditions, including increased vacancy rates, lackluster leasing activity, equity flight, and a financing drought—especially for assets with high levels of vacancy. The landlords warned that DC may face a significant loss of tax revenue that could threaten the city’s fiscal health, and that other cities are experiencing similar conditions. (Commercial Observer, Nov. 29 and Bisnow, Nov. 28)     

• A recent federal employee survey from the U.S. Office of Personnel Management reports that about 42% of federal employees “telework” at least a few days per week.
• The federal government maintains facilities in 2,200 communities, influencing local leasing activities, property values, and surrounding small businesses. (Roundtable Weekly, Dec. 16, 2022)

• Federal proposals aimed at encouraging more Americans back to the workplace, including enhanced child- care and eldercare benefits, are under consideration as the administration formulates its 2023 economic agenda. (Wall Street Journal and The Hill, Dec. 20)

Roundtable View

• Real Estate Roundtable Chair John Fish, above right, and President & CEO Jeff DeBoer, left, wrote to President Biden last month about the consequences of federal agencies’ promotion of permanent remote work—and how remote work magnifies the ongoing, harmful economic impacts on cities, local tax bases, and small businesses. (Roundtable Weekly, Dec. 2 and Dec. 16, 2022)
• Roundtable Chair John Fish also recently responded to plans by the state of Massachusetts to vacate at least 355,000 square feet of its office footprint. Fish told The Boston Globe on Dec. 27 that government agencies at all levels should consider the effects on small businesses and property taxes when evaluating their back-to-office policies.
• The Roundtable comments also expressed supported legislation that could help facilitate “the increased conversion of underutilized office and other commercial real estate to much-needed housing.” The letter stated that incentives for conversion projects could be modeled on the rehabilitation tax credit as a cost-effective means to increase the housing supply, create jobs, and boost the local tax base.

How cities are responding to the impact to hybrid work arrangements will be one of several topics that Miami Mayor Francis Xavier Suarez, who also serves as president of the U.S. Conference of Mayors will discuss with Roundtable members at our Jan. 24 State of the Industry Meeting in Washington.

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This week, rising U.S. office vacancy rates were the focus of several media reports as a result of the ongoing, negative impact of hybrid work arrangements. 

• On Dec. 20, CNBC’s Squawkbox reported that 100 million square feet of office space is now available in Manhattan.
• On Dec. 18, The Real Deal reported on The Roundtable’s recent letter to President Joe Biden about the harmful economic and social consequences of widespread remote work on cities, local tax bases, and small businesses.
• The article included a quote from Real Estate Roundtable Chairman and SUFFOLK CEO John Fish and The Roundtable’s President and CEO Jeffrey DeBoer, who stated in their letter, “We are concerned that certain administration policy guidance is encouraging federal agencies to adopt permanent work-from-home policies for federal employees and thereby actually magnifying negative economic and social consequences for cities.” (Roundtable Weekly, Dec. 16)
• On Dec. 17, the New York Times reported on office vacancy rates in San Francisco. “Office buildings are at about 40 percent of their prepandemic occupancy, while the vacancy rate has jumped to 24 percent from 5 percent since 2019,” according to the article, “What Comes Next for San Francisco’s Emptied Downtown.”

Commercial real estate trends and potential policy responses will be discussed during The Roundtable’s Jan. 24-25 State of the Industry Meeting in Washington, DC.

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The Roundtable wrote to President Joe Biden on Dec. 12 about the ongoing, harmful economic impacts of widespread remote work on cities, local tax bases, and small businesses—and how work-from-home policies by federal agencies threaten to magnify these negative economic and social consequences. (Roundtable letter | GlobeSt and CoStar, Dec. 15) 

Roundtable Requests 

• The letter from Real Estate Roundtable Chair John Fish and President & CEO Jeff DeBoer urges President Biden “to direct federal agencies to enhance their consideration of the impact of agency employee remote working on communities, surrounding small employers, transit systems, local tax bases and other important considerations.”

• The federal government maintains facilities in 2,200 communities, influencing local leasing activities, property values, and surrounding small businesses. Cities may continue to struggle if federal agencies encourage their employees to work-from-home on a permanent basis. Unfortunately, some federal officials view agency remote work simply as a recruiting tool or cost-saving measure. [Office of Personnel Management testimony, Future of Federal Work Part II, before House Committee on Oversight and Reform (July 21, 2022), and OPM’s Future of Work FAQ]
• The Roundtable letter notes that federal agencies’ actions to emphasize the benefits of permanent remote work differ from the current direction of private sector employers, who are increasingly recognizing the need to bring employees back to the workplace.
• The Roundtable comments also encourage President Biden to support legislation that could help facilitate “the increased conversion of underutilized office and other commercial real estate to much-needed housing.” The letter states that incentives for conversion projects could be modeled on the rehabilitation tax credit as a cost-effective means to increase the housing supply, create jobs, and boost the local tax base. 

Economic Impact of Remote Work 

• The work-from-home trend poses a threat to local tax bases and community services, according to research by organizations such as the Pew Charitable Trust. (Pew State Fiscal Health Initiative, Feb. 22)
• The economic threat posed by remote work to municipalities was also a focus of a Dec. 13 Wall Street Journal report—“Shrinking Office Building Values Are Becoming a Dilemma for City Budgets.” 

Roundtable Members in the News 

• Roundtable Chair John Fish (Chairman and CEO, SUFFOLK) spoke with Bloomberg Intelligence on Dec. 9 about the consequences of rising interest rates, the impact of remote work, labor force participation, and the general economic outlook. (Chair Fish interview begins at 26:05)
• Former Roundtable Chair Bill Rudin (Co-Chairman & CEO, Rudin Management Company, Inc.) discussed real estate challenges and the potential for office-to-residential conversions in New York City on Dec. 14 during an interview with CNBC’s Squawk on the Street.
• Roundtable Board Member Kathleen McCarthy (Global Co-Head of Blackstone Real Estate) was interviewed on Dec. 9 by Bloomberg Radio on a wide range of real estate investment issues, asset types, and her experience in the industry. 

Commercial real estate trends and potential policy responses will be discussed during The Roundtable’s Jan. 24-25 State of the Industry Meeting in Washington, DC.

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The Roundtable’s Q4 Economic Sentiment Index released this month noted the influence of hybrid work arrangements on the office market. (News Release and Entire Q4 Report, Nov. 18) 

Roundtable View 

• Roundtable President and CEO Jeffrey DeBoer commented, “We continue to urge policymakers and business leaders to push for the safe return of workers to their shared, physical workspace,” DeBoer said. (Connect CRE, Nov. 22 and CoStar, Nov. 21)
• He added, “A back-to-the-workplace movement would increase overall economic productivity and competitiveness, help preserve urban small businesses, and lower the threat to the property tax base of municipalities throughout the nation.” (News Release and Entire Q4 Report, Nov. 18) 

National Vacancy Rates 

• Recent industry reports show hybrid work arrangements are contributing to increased office vacancy rates nationwide and threatening the health and well-being of American cities. 

• A national report issued this month by CommercialEdge shows that large swaths of companies that have embraced remote and hybrid work since the onset of the pandemic have influenced the current decrease in demand for office space in most markets. (Commercial Observer, Nov. 21)
• CommercialEdge reports U.S. vacancy rates rose over the previous 12 months in 86 of 120 markets, including 22 of the 25 leading office markets. (National Office Report webpage and pdf, Nov. 2022)
• CommercialEdge Senior Manager Peter Kolaczynski stated in the report, “Work-from-home solidifying itself, plus broader economic uncertainty, are set to continue the stress on the office industry as we enter the new year.” 

Risks to Local Tax Revenue 

• In Washington, DC, office owners alerted city officials this week that a dramatic and persistent decline in commuter activity—exacerbated by remote work—has contributed to deteriorating market conditions. The landlords warned that DC may face a significant loss of tax revenue that could threaten the city’s fiscal health, and that other cities are experiencing similar conditions. (Commercial Observer, Nov. 29 and Bisnow, Nov. 28) 

• Prominent DC office landlords sent a letter on Monday to the city’s chief financial officer about eroding local market conditions, including increased vacancy rates, lackluster leasing activity, equity flight, and a financing drought—especially for assets with high levels of vacancy. “The pandemic and work from home have further eroded fundamentals and all indicators of the health of the District’s office market point increased systemic risk and distress,” the letter states.
   
• “For every decline of $100 million in commercial property tax assessments, annual property tax revenue falls by $2 million. It is vitally important for city officials to fully comprehend the difficult environment commercial office buildings are operating under and the risks to the future tax revenue,” the letter noted. 

Signatories to the Nov. 28 letter—including Carr Properties, JBG Smith, Boston Properties, Brookfield, Trammel Crow and Hines—offered to work with DC officials to discuss potential means of addressing “this enormous challenge.” 

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