Tag: Quarterly Sentiment Index

Roundtable’s Q4 Sentiment Index Shows CRE Execs Optimistic Despite Serious Market Challenges; Walker Webcast Focuses on the Future of Urban Real Estate

Posted on by Trey Jackson

Commercial real estate executives expressed a modest increase in optimism about market conditions despite serious COVID-related challenges, according to The Real Estate Roundtable’s Q4 Economic Sentiment Index released this week. (Roundtable news release, Dec. 2)

  • A majority of respondents to the survey also noted that general conditions one year from now will be either “somewhat better” or “much better” than today. 
  • “Nearly every sector of the commercial real estate industry is facing serious economic challenges due to the overall impact of the pandemic. High unemployment, closed businesses, travel reductions and more have ripped into otherwise healthy real estate portfolios, creating challenges for all building owners in meeting their payroll, utility, tax and debt service obligations. Overall industry low leverage, general market balance, and functioning capital markets are positive influences that – when coupled with growing good news regarding vaccines – results in an increased optimism on part of industry leaders,” said Real Estate Roundtable President and CEO Jeffrey DeBoer. 
  • DeBoer also said,  “That optimism is dependent however on urgently-needed additional COVID relief from Washington and on the rapid testing and availability of effective vaccines. Federal lawmakers and regulators must support further assistance to bridge people and businesses into a post-COVID economy. Help is needed quickly for local governmental budgets, as well as for people and businesses negatively economically impacted by the pandemic. And some protection from unnecessary lawsuits must be provided to businesses to spur a more robust transition back to workplaces. ” 

The Roundtable’s Q4 Sentiment Index topline findings include:

  • The Sentiment Index registered a score of 44, an increase of two points from the third quarter of 2020. Respondents continued to express optimism about future conditions, and many noted increasingly positive trends in their own portfolios. Participants from the hospitality and retail sectors were understandably less optimistic, but felt market dynamics were strong enough that successful recoveries were possible.
  • Respondents referenced stronger markets for industrial and multifamily properties, while retail and hospitality properties were perceived as challenging in this environment. Dynamics in the office sector remain uncertain for most participants as work from home policies have created an uncertain future operating environment.
  • Lower leverage and continued forbearance have combined to allow owners to retain their positions, despite distress within their portfolios. As a result, owners are resistant to realizing discounted asset prices while buyers are seeking discounts as steep as 30% within the hospitality industry.
  • Most respondents cited accessible capital markets for high quality assets, and an increase in debt as well as equity availability. Many also noted the real estate market in general has lower levels of leverage than seen in the last downturn.

Future of Urban Real Estate

Walker Webcast with Mark Parrell and Owen Thomas image

On this week’s Walker Webcast, Roundtable Member Willy Walker (Chairman & CEO, Walker & Dunlop) discussed the pandemic’s impact on urban centers with Roundtable Board Member Owen Thomas (CEO, Boston Properties) and Roundtable Member Mark J. Parrell (President & CEO, Equity Residential Investments). 

  • Thomas commented, “It’s all about the virus. CEOs increasingly are understanding the problems with all remote work. Cultures are getting stretched and it is difficult to do more creative and strategic work, to procure new customers when everyone is working remotely. Companies want to get their employees back to work but companies are also very concerned about liability. What’s going to change all that around is health security.”
  • He added, “We have to get people back to the offices, back to the big cities for the overall economy to recover.”
  • Parrell noted, “When we think about our urban centers, there are places like New York that have been around 400 years and they’ve been resilient over time. (During) the last two decades in New York, up to the pandemic, the quality of life improved so much. These cities are capable of recovery, but good leadership is required. It will be very important that these cities be led by both public and private minded individuals who, like the Partnership for New York for example, are trying to put the city back together and on its feet. Once the cities re-energize, renters will return.”
  • Parrell added, “I do think there’s going to be a migration back into city centers, based initially on price and on activation as the vaccine gets broadly distributed.”

The pandemic’s ongoing impact on CRE and the policy response will be a focus of discussion during The Roundtable’s virtual State of the Industry Business Meeting and policy committee advisory committee meetings on January 27-28, 2021.

#  #  # 

Commercial Real Estate Executives Optimistic Despite Serious Current Market Challenges

Posted on by Trey Jackson

A quarterly survey of commercial real estate industry leaders reflects optimism about market conditions, despite ongoing serious COVID-related challenges. Sentiment is somewhat bouyed by positive supply, demand and capital access, as well as hopeful expectations for a vaccine.  

(WASHINGTON, D.C.) — Commercial real estate executives expressed a modest increase in optimism about market conditions, according to The Real Estate Roundtable’s Q4 Economic Sentiment Index, released today. A majority of respondents to the survey also noted that general conditions one year from now will be either “somewhat better” or “much better” than today. 

Those surveyed noted particularly challenging economic conditions in the hospitality and retail sectors; market uncertainty associated with future office space use; somewhat stable multifamily markets, and relatively stronger industrial and life science markets. They cited industry fundamentals, functioning capital markets, industry-wide low leverage and modest lender debt service forbearance as factors in the industry’s ability to thus far withstand the very serious COVID-related market challenges.

“Nearly every sector of the commercial real estate industry is facing serious economic challenges due to the overall impact of the pandemic. High unemployment, closed businesses, travel reductions and more have ripped into otherwise healthy real estate portfolios, creating challenges for all building owners in meeting their payroll, utility, tax and debt service obligations. Overall industry low leverage, general market balance, and functioning capital markets are positive influences that – when coupled with growing good news regarding vaccines – results in an increased optimism on part of industry leaders,” said Real Estate Roundtable President and CEO Jeffrey DeBoer. 

DeBoer added, “That optimism is dependent however on urgently-needed additional COVID relief from Washington and on the rapid testing and availability of effective vaccines. Federal lawmakers and regulators must support further assistance to bridge people and businesses into a post-COVID economy. Help is needed quickly for local governmental budgets, as well as for people and businesses negatively economically impacted by the pandemic.  And some protection from unnecessary lawsuits must be provided to businesses to spur a more robust transition back to workplaces. ” 

The Roundtable’s Q4 Economic Sentiment Index’s Topline Findings include:

  • Increased Optimism
    Respondents’ views reflected an increase in optimism for overall and near-term conditions (from a recent and sharp drop).
  • Better General Market Conditions
    A majority of respondents anticipated better market conditions in one year’s time, having noted worse market conditions today as compared with a year ago.
  • Stable Capital Markets
    Most respondents cited accessible capital markets for high-quality assets, and an increase in debt as well as equity availability. 
     

    Data for the Q4 survey was gathered by Chicago-based FPL Associates on The Roundtable’s behalf. 

    #   #  #

Commercial Real Estate Executives See a Coronavirus Vaccine as Cure for Current Market Challenges

Posted on by Trey Jackson

Commercial real estate executives recognize the various challenges in the current market as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, while remaining optimistic about future market conditions, according to The Real Estate Roundtable’s Q3 2020 Economic Sentiment Index released today.  The report emphasizes the importance for developing, testing, and distributing a vaccine in the coming months in order for market conditions to show further improvements.

  • “As our Q3 index shows, commercial real estate markets continue to suffer from the effects that the COVID-19 pandemic has had on businesses and residential tenants” said Real Estate Roundtable President and CEO Jeffrey DeBoer. “Hospitality, senior housing, and retail commercial real estate tenants in particular are struggling currently, as are CMBS loan pools consisting of these asset types. Other commercial real estate sectors, notably office and multifamily, also are facing challenges related to the overall economic hit from the health care crisis and are very cautious in their activities. However, generally balanced CRE market conditions and responsible leverage prior to the crisis positions the industry to stabilize and move forward positively once a vaccine is available,” DeBoer added.
  • The Roundtable’s Q3 2020 Sentiment Index registered at 42 – a four point increase from the previous quarter.  [The Overall Index is scored on a scale of 1 to 100 by averaging Current and Future Indices; any score over 50 is viewed as positive.]. This quarter’s Current Conditions Index of 21 increased eight points from the previous quarter, while this quarter’s Future Conditions Index of 63, is an increase of one point compared to last quarter, and a 13-point increase compared to Q1 2020. 
  • The report’s Topline Findings include:
    • Many respondents expressed optimism about future market conditions as they feel current market conditions are the result of the COVID-19 pandemic, as opposed to poor underlying market fundamentals.  However, until a vaccine or treatment is released and the general populace regains its confidence, responders felt the market would stay in its current challenged state.  
    • Survey responders expect a challenging market for at least the next six to nine months while a vaccine is created, tested, and distributed. Assuming a vaccine is released, most responders assume the market will be in recovery by this time next year.
    • Transaction volume has been down since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic in most markets.  Anticipated asset price discounts for most property types have yet to materialize as property owners are not willing to capitulate to market pressures if they can keep hold of their assets until a post-vaccine market. 
    • Many responders described the capital markets as open, but challenging to access.  Construction and permanent financing options have increased since the beginning of the pandemic, but are still selective, relative to the projects they will finance.  Institutional equity has continued to enter the market where it has an existing relationship with a manager; otherwise, investors are reluctant to enter the market at this time.    
  • DeBoer noted, “While a vaccine continues to be explored, it is imperative that Congress and the Administration soon come to an agreement on the next round of COVID-19 relief. Extending added unemployment benefits, additional funding for the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP), and a rental assistance program to help impacted people as well as struggling small businesses is needed. Moreover, property owners, hospitals, schools and others need liability protection against frivolous lawsuits and businesses need assistance as they seek to cover new and unusual expenses related to safety and cleaning protocols.” 

Data for the Q3 survey was gathered by Chicago-based FPL Associates on The Roundtable’s behalf. The Roundtable table’s Q4 Sentiment Index will be released in November.

#  #  # 

Q2 Economic Sentiment: Commercial Real Estate Execs Confirm COVID-19 Market Downturn

Posted on by Trey Jackson

Q2 2020 Sentiment Index - Homepage

Commercial real estate executives confirmed a downturn in Q2 market conditions due to job losses and business shutdowns related to COVID-19, according to The Real Estate Roundtable’s 2020 Q2 Economic Sentiment Index released today.  The report also shows there is an expectation for an improvement in market conditions by next year, dependent upon the return of jobs and the ability to safely reopen businesses. 

  • “The commercial real estate industry, like all industries, experienced in the second quarter a sudden onset of economic disruption due to business lockdowns and stay-at-home shutdown orders put in place to combat the pandemic,” said Real Estate Roundtable President and CEO Jeffrey DeBoer.  “The economic damage to commercial real estate has been particularly harmful for the retail and lodging sectors of the industry.  Although our Q2 survey results show there is hope for improved conditions within the next year, there are significant concerns that other sectors of the industry could be dragged down if jobs don’t rebound and government assistance tapers off.  The fear is that business and residential tenants may be suddenly unable to pay rent beyond the sectors already impacted and struggling to come back,” DeBoer added.
  • The report’s Topline Findings include:
    • The Real Estate Roundtable Q2 2020 Sentiment Index registered a score of 38, a decrease of 14 points from the first quarter of 2020.   Many respondents confirm tenants are having increased difficulties paying their rent obligations as a result of massive job losses.  Most survey participants expect the eventual reopening of businesses and resolution of rental obligations will lead to improved real estate market conditions.
    • Many survey respondents have seen the industry quickly adapt to new social distancing environments by implementing technologies and online processes that provide some continuity for current operations.  Market volatility is leading to uncertainty about how future retail real estate and multifamily demand will be affected.
    • Job losses have led to widespread economic uncertainty.  Lockdowns and stay-at-home orders have also impaired the ability of survey respondents to accurately value commercial real estate assets.  As a result, transactions have slowed until a medical solution to the outbreak may allow reopening of properties, renewed business activity and underwriting of investments. 
    • The majority of survey participants indicated the availability of debt and equity are worse today than one year ago.  Many respondents indicated they believe there is plenty of equity capital on the sidelines, but it is unwilling to invest in a market without price discovery.  As for debt markets, debt funds have been largely absent from the market and only the most pristine assets are qualifying for new debt capital.  
    • The Roundtable’s Q2 Overall Sentiment Index is scored on a scale of 1 to 100 by averaging Current and Future Indices; any score over 50 is viewed as positive. 
  • The Q2 Current Conditions Index dropped to 13 from Q1’s score of 55 – yet the Q2 Future Conditions Index increased 12 points to register 62 when compared to Q1’s score of 50.
  • The 49-point disparity between the Q2 Current Index (13) and Future Index (62) is the most significant difference registered by The Roundtable’s Quarterly Economic Sentiment Survey in its 12-year history.  The next highest disparity previously occurred in Q1 2009, when the difference between current and future indices registered 40 points during the financial crisis.
  • DeBoer noted, “The unprecedented wave of job losses is disproportionally impacting women, minorities and veterans.  Unemployment and business closures have added tremendous stress on people worried about taking care of their families and maintaining their housing. And it also has added to the worries of business owners, particularly in terms of meeting their payroll and rent obligations.  The Roundtable continues to support the Federal government’s efforts to date including the CARES Act, the FED lending facilities and the expanded unemployment benefits.  In addition to finding ways to improve and extend these programs, we now call on Congress to create a temporary assistance program specifically designed to help COVID impacted residential and commercial tenants meet their rent obligations.”
  • He added, “Such a program would help people and businesses cope with the current economic downturn. It would help building owners maintain their workforce that is necessary to ensure that visitors to buildings are safe and  healthy.  It would ease pressure on financial institutions and local governments.  The next COVID relief bill must include a rent assistance program for people and businesses.”

Data for the Q2 survey was gathered by Chicago-based FPL Associates on The Roundtable’s behalf.  The Roundtable’s Q3 Sentiment Index will be released in early August.

#  #  #

Commercial Real Estate Executives Report Balanced Real Estate Market Conditions Supported by Stable Economy

Posted on by Trey Jackson

 

The Real Estate Roundtable’s 2020 Q1 Economic Sentiment Index released this week registered a three point increase over the 2019 fourth quarter index. Commercial real estate (CRE) industry executives continue to experience generally balanced market fundamentals across nearly all product types, with limited overbuilding and conservative overall industry debt. CRE executives also positively noted the continued macro-economic job growth and low interest rates. Election year politics and international tensions somewhat temper the overall optimistic sentiment causing some CRE executives to prepare for potential market disruptions later in 2020.    

“As our Q1 index shows, we are beginning a new decade optimistic about continued overall economic growth,” said Roundtable President and CEO, Jeffrey D. DeBoer. “Commercial real estate markets remain fundamentally sound; supply and demand are in relative balance; debt and equity capital markets are functioning and disciplined; wages are rising; and, unemployment is low,” DeBoer added.   

The Roundtable’s Q1 2020 Sentiment Index registered at 52 – a three point increase from the previous quarter.  [The Overall Index is scored on a scale of 1 to 100 by averaging Current and Future Indices; any score over 50 is viewed as positive.]  This quarter’s Current-Conditions Index of 55 increased two points from the previous quarter, while this quarter’s Future-Conditions Index of 50 came in at five points higher compared to Q4 2019.

The report’s Topline Findings include:

  • The Real Estate Roundtable Q1 2020 Sentiment Index registered a score of 52, a three point increase over the last quarter of 2019. Respondents feel the overall economy is stable and the commercial real estate market continues to be supported by strong market fundamentals. Many respondents have stopped attempting to predict an end to this cycle as they see no apparent economic hurdles to current market stability.

  • Despite respondents finding comfort with the current market climate, many are anticipating two phases of the 2020 calendar year: pre-election and post-election. Many noted that election years are notoriously unpredictable and point to a large volume of transactions already underway as platforms attempt to execute before the summer.

  • Asset values remain elevated across most property types and geographies. While certain respondents suggest that asset values have room to grow, others view current pricing as being at peak levels.

  • Debt and equity capital are perceived as widely available in most markets. Many respondents noted the high level of discipline they are witnessing in the debt markets on behalf of lenders. This level of discipline suggests a healthy state in the capital markets, and is a contributing factor to the continuation of the current cycle.

DeBoer noted, “There is natural concern regarding the uncertainty of the coming presidential election.  However, the commercial real estate industry’s leading executives are positive about today’s economy and optimistic about future market conditions.  As the year progresses, The Roundtable will continue working with national policymakers to maintain and strengthen pro-growth policies to create jobs, expand housing opportunities, and benefit the overall economy.”

Data for the Q1 survey was gathered in January by Chicago-based FPL Associates on The Roundtable’s behalf.  For the full survey report, visit http://www.rer.org/Q1-2020-Sentiment-Index/

 

CRE Execs Report Solid Q4 Market Fundamentals Ease Concerns Over Economic Uncertainty and Geopolitics

Posted on by Trey Jackson

Jeffrey DeBoer, President and CEO, The Real Estate Roundtable

Commercial real estate executives report solid fundamentals are countering concerns about economic uncertainty and geopolitics, maintaining an optimistic outlook for market conditions in 2020, according to The Real Estate Roundtable’s 2019 Q4 Economic Sentiment Index released today. 

  • The Q4 Sentiment Index dropped one point from the previous quarter to register a score of 49, which shows a positive view regarding the U.S. economy and real estate market conditions. The Overall Economic Sentiment Index is scored on a scale of 1 to 100 by averaging Current and Future Indices and a score of approximately 50 is viewed as positive.
  • For Q4, the Current-Conditions Index of 53 remains the same as the previous quarter. The Q4 Future-Conditions Index of 45 decreased three points from Q3.  The Overall Sentiment Index has registered between 49 and 77 every quarter since Q3 2009 – except for Q1 2019 (45 score) and Q4 2016 (48 score).
  • “Our Q4 Sentiment Index shows that macro real estate markets remain fundamentally sound and reasonably leveraged, with balanced supply and demand,” said Real Estate Roundtable President and CEO Jeffrey DeBoer (above).  “The markets continue to benefit from business and consumer spending, encouraged by low unemployment, rising wages and low energy prices.”

The report’s Topline Findings include:

  • The Real Estate Roundtable Q4 2019 Economic Sentiment Index registered a score of 49 – a one-point decrease from the previous quarter. Survey participants remain confident in stable market fundamentals, but are concerned about recession talk, troubled international markets and politics.  
  • Sixty-two percent of Q4 survey respondents believe markets conditions will be about the same or better in 2020.  Approximately 82% of respondents see today’s market as about the same or better compared to the same time last year. 
     
  • More than 65% of respondents anticipate asset values to maintain their current level or be somewhat higher going into 2020.  Additionally, half also suggested asset values increased over the past year.  Respondents consistently suggested the number of buyers for assets was decreasing, a factor which is creating challenging selling and buying circumstances. 
     
  • Most respondents feel debt and equity capital are readily available for quality investments.  The availability of capital and refinancing opportunities are offsetting a decline in buyers/investors in some markets.

DeBoer added, “Real estate leaders cautiously await the outcome of several unpredictable influences on the global and domestic economies.  Despite the uncertainty, U.S. real estate markets have shown consistent stability, which positions them well to withstand potential economic gyrations in the future.”  He also said, “Washington policymakers need to keep their focus on policies that encourage long-term job creation and support economic growth in local communities.”

Data for the Q4 survey was gathered in October by Chicago-based FPL Associates on The Roundtable’s behalf.  For the full survey report, visit www.rer.org/q4-2019-sentiment-index-report

#  #  # 

 

Q2 Economic Sentiment: Commercial Real Estate Executives See Disciplined Markets, Healthy Economy

Posted on by Trey Jackson

Questions Remain About The Length of The Overall Economic Cycle  

(WASHINGTON, D.C.) — Commercial real estate executives expressed increased optimism about real estate markets and overall economic conditions, according to The Real Estate Roundtable’s 2019 Q2 Sentiment Index released today. 

The Q2 Sentiment Index registered 51 – a six point increase from the previous quarter. The Index has registered between 50 and 55 every quarter since Q1 2017 – except Q1 2019.

“The increase in our Q2 Sentiment Index can be largely attributed to a calming of the late 2018 capital market volatility and interest rate concerns,” said Real Estate Roundtable President and CEO Jeffrey DeBoer.  “Debt and equity continue to be widely available for quality commercial real estate investments.   At the same time strong lending underwriting is keeping uneconomic new development in check. This positive situation has positioned the commercial real estate industry on solid footing to respond to a continuing growing economy, or to mitigate the impact of a natural slowdown in the current historically long economic cycle,” DeBoer added.

The Roundtable’s Q2 2019 Sentiment Index’s score of 51 reflects a positive trend for the overall economy and real estate market conditions.  [The Overall Index is scored on a scale of 1 to 100 by averaging Current and Future Indices; any score over 50 is viewed as positive.]  Both the Current-Conditions Index of 53 and Future-Conditions Index of 48 for this quarter increased six points from Q1.  

The report’s Topline Findings include:

  • The Real Estate Roundtable Q2 2019 Sentiment Index registered 51 – a six point increase from the previous quarter.  Survey participants expressed increased optimism that real estate markets will remain healthy as positive economic conditions persist. Respondents are encouraged by the resilience of the market, but have questions about the length of the overall economic cycle.  
  • Many respondents expressed caution around the late cycle timing, but they also pointed to a high level of discipline on behalf of equity and debt providers. Lending standards have remained rigid and underwriting of new deals has been thoughtfully executed.
  • Respondents suggested that asset values for certain property types may be approaching peak. The perceived gap between buyer and seller expectations supports this view.
  • Debt and equity are viewed as widely available for quality investments. Despite plenty of capital flowing into the market, respondents pointed to the discipline exhibited by lenders as a factor contributing to their market confidence.

While 42% of survey participants reported Q2 asset values today are “about the same” compared to this time last year, 56% of respondents believe that one year from now, values will be “about the same.”  Many respondents noted asset values may continue to grow in some markets, yet core asset pricing may be tightening.

DeBoer noted, “Real estate markets are showing signs of impressive discipline, as commercial real estate executives carefully consider how the industry may be able to weather unpredictable economic challenges that are bound to arise.  Lawmakers in Washington should focus on bipartisan economic policies affecting infrastructure investment and development of opportunity zones, which can spur continued job creation and support healthy communities nationwide.”

Data for the Q2 survey was gathered in April by Chicago-based FPL Associates on The Roundtable’s behalf.  Full survey report.

# # #

 

Commercial Real Estate Industry Leaders See Balanced Market Fundamentals for Q2

Posted on by Trey Jackson

The Roundtable’s Q2 2018 Economic Sentiment Index released yesterday shows that as plentiful financing and equity continue to drive commercial real estate investment activity, industry leaders continue to see balanced market fundamentals, despite rising costs of construction and an uncertain outlook for markets in 2019.

The Roundtable’s  Q2 2018 Economic Sentiment Index   shows  plentiful financing and equity continue to drive commercial real estate investment activity.   

The report’s Topline Findings include: 

  • The Q2 index came in at 51, a three point drop from Q1. Awareness of the length of current cycle and trepidation about economic conditions in 2019 has led to a general feeling of cautiousness. That said, availability of affordable financing and plentiful equity for the best quality investments are driving continued investment activity. 
  • Despite rising costs of construction, development continues somewhat unabated. Some responders pointed to the expectations of the millennial generation as the driver for reimagined building uses and new developments. 
  • Asset values are perceived as peaking for the most property types and markets. Industrial and multifamily assets are viewed as classes with room to continue pricing growth, whereas many felt retail assets are overpriced and possibly overbought.

    Roundtable President and CEO Jeffrey DeBoer, “As our Q2 Index show, with debt and equity readily available for quality investments and new development opportunities, industry leaders are being forced to reevaluate, innovate, and reimagine their buildings – driven by an influx of the millennial generation and their new set of expectations for office and multifamily markets.”

  • Responders noted the absence of previously ubiquitous Asian capital this quarter. Despite this absence, all responders felt debt and equity was readily available for quality investments.  

“Real estate fundamentals continue to remain strong into 2018, where balance between supply and demand in almost every sector is healthy, while debt and equity for real estate as an asset class remains abundant,” said Roundtable President and CEO Jeffrey DeBoer. “There are fears about political uncertainty, trade wars and interest rate increases, which are having some impact and creating a manageable amount of uncertainty for the markets for the remainder of 2018 and looking ahead to 2019.” 

DeBoer added, “As our Q2 Index shows, with debt and equity readily available for quality investments and new development opportunities, industry leaders are being forced to reevaluate, innovate, and reimagine their buildings – driven by an influx of the millennial generation and their new set of expectations for office and multifamily markets. It is vital for our industry to continue developing new technology solutions for the ever evolving demands of the market.” 

Data for the Q2 survey was gathered in April by Chicago-based FPL Associates on The Roundtable’s behalf.  The next Sentiment Survey covering Q3 2018 will be released in August.

Roundtable Q3 Survey: Commercial Real Estate Executives Report Balanced and Strong Current Market Conditions, Concern for the Future

Posted on by Trey Jackson

The Real Estate Roundtable’s latest quarterly Economic Sentiment Index reported commercial real estate industry executives continue to see balanced and stable market conditions for Q3, despite growing concerns that the market may be at peak pricing and could be nearing the end of its current cycle. 

The  Roundtable’s Q3 2018 Economic Sentiment Index registered at 52 — a one point increase from the last quarter. However, this quarter’s Future-Conditions Index of 49 is seven points lower than the Current-Conditions index of 56.

  • “As we move into the second half of the year, we continue to see robust markets, with debt and equity available, and asset values strong. The commercial real estate industry remains confident for the remainder of 2018,” said Roundtable CEO and President Jeffrey DeBoer. “The positive snapshot of current commercial real estate markets reflects a general absorption of recent interest rate increases, coupled with overall economic stimulation from tax reform.”  
  • The Roundtable’s Q3 2018 Sentiment Index registered at 52 — a one point increase from the last quarter. [The Overall Index is scored on a scale of 1 to 100 by averaging Current and Future Indices; any score over 50 is viewed as positive.] This quarter’s Current-Conditions Index of 56 increased four points from the previous quarter, and rose 5 points compared to the Q3 2017 score of 51. However, this quarter’s Future-Conditions Index of 49 is seven points lower than the Current-Conditions index of 56.

The report’s Topline Findings include:

Roundtable CEO and President Jeffrey DeBoer noted, “Looking to future market conditions, industry executives are noting uncertainties regarding the November midterm elections and growing interest rate and international trade concerns. Policymakers must stay focused on developing pro-growth policies that continue to benefit the overall economy and spur job growth.”

  • The Q3 index came in at 52, a one point increase from Q2. Responders view the market as balanced in terms of property supply and demand. Some responders pointed to pockets where the balance is slipping, but felt the general market conditions are positive and will continue to be so, barring an unexpected event. 
  • Most responders feel market conditions are stable, but there is growing sentiment suggesting the industry is nearing the end of its current cycle. This sentiment is reflected in the seven point spread between current and future real estate conditions shown in Exhibit 1.
  • Most responders suggested asset values have reached peak pricing for many property types, and certainly in major gateway cities. Despite potential peak pricing, industrial properties continue to attract a large volume of investors. 
  • Debt and equity capital sources remain plentiful, but responders expressed concerns about the amount of debt available and the ramifications of the mounting time pressure some lenders have to invest their capital.

DeBoer added, “Looking to future market conditions, industry executives are noting uncertainties regarding the November midterm elections and growing interest rate and international trade concerns. Policymakers must stay focused on developing pro-growth policies that continue to benefit the overall economy and spur job growth.” 

Data for the Q3 survey was gathered in July by Chicago-based FPL Associates on The Roundtable’s behalf. The next Sentiment Survey covering Q4 2018 will be released in November. 

 

Commercial Real Estate Industry Leaders See Positive Market Fundamentals for Remainder of 2018

Posted on by Trey Jackson

Commercial real estate executives continue to see strong and balanced market conditions for the remainder of 2018 and moving forward into the new year, according to The Real Estate Roundtable’s Q4 2018 Economic Sentiment Index released today.

Commercial real estate executives continue to see strong and balanced market conditions for the remainder of 2018 and moving forward into the new year, according to The Real Estate Roundtable’s Q4 2018 Economic Sentiment Index. 

“Our latest Sentiment Index finds commercial real estate industry leaders experiencing continued positive market conditions and cautiously predicting solid performance into 2019. Concerns exist about interest rate and construction cost increases, as well as labor shortages. However, these concerns have not yet caused significant market disruption.” said Roundtable President and CEO Jeffrey DeBoer. “With some exceptions, supply and demand in major markets remains essentially in balance, and access to debt and equity remains strong. Disciplined, not aggressive, development and investment are the current watchwords of smart real estate executives,” DeBoer added. 

The Roundtable’s Q4 2018 Sentiment Index registered at 50 — a two point decrease from Q3 2018. [The Overall Index is scored on a scale of 1 to 100 by averaging Current and Future Indices; any score over 50 is viewed as positive.] This quarter’s Current Conditions Index of 53 decreased by three points from the previous quarter. This time last year, the Q4 2017 Current Conditions Index registered at 53 as well, highlighting the sustained equilibrium in the market this past year. This quarter’s Future Conditions Index of 47, decreased by two points from the previous quarter. 

The report’s Topline Findings include:

  • The Q4 index came in at 50, a two point drop from Q3. Most suggest that current market conditions are positive and expect such conditions to continue into the new year. However, some responders continue to question, “How much longer can this last?”   
  • Responders pointed to the increase in costs for constructions projects and the corresponding decline in development returns as a concerning market factor. As a result, fewer responders were highly optimistic about market conditions in 2019 as yield becomes increasingly hard to find.   
  • For the first time in many quarters, a large proportion of responders are indicating a belief that asset values will start declining. However, pricing is expect to stay relatively strong for assets in major markets. 
  • Responders feel debt and equity capital are plentiful in today’s market. Equity investors and lenders alike continue to show strong appetite for real estate.

Ninety percent of survey participants report Q4 2018 asset values today are “about the same” or “somewhat higher” compared to this time last year. Looking ahead, a minority of participants said they expect values to be “somewhat lower” one year from now with 55% of respondents seeing no significant value declines.

DeBoer noted, “After the midterm elections we look forward to continuing to work on positive, pro-growth national public policy. The nation needs policy action to address the growing labor shortage and infrastructure needs. The terrorism risk insurance act will also need to be extended in the new Congress. We intend to try to help policymakers tackle these and others issues by offering smart research and positive bipartisan advocacy that emphasizes commercial real estate’s contributions to job creation, communities; and retirement savings.” 

Data for the Q4 survey was gathered in October by Chicago-based FPL Associates on The Roundtable’s behalf.