Quarterly Sentiment Index – Page 2 – The Real Estate Roundtable

Rising Interest Rates, Tighter Liquidity, Hybrid Work, and Cost Cutting Reflected in Roundtable’s Q4 Sentiment Index

Posted on November 19, 2022October 27, 2023 by Trey Jackson

The Real Estate Roundtable’s Q4 Economic Sentiment Index dropped to an overall score of 39, five points lower than the previous quarter. Commercial real estate executives cited a reduction in available equity and debt capital, changes in post-pandemic office use, general business cost cutting, and employee layoffs among the contributing factors causing market uncertainty and a decrease in transactions. (News Release and Entire Q4 Report, Nov. 18)

Roundtable View Jeffrey DeBoer Real Estate Roundtable

Roundtable President and CEO Jeffrey DeBoer, above, said, “Industry executives report that asset valuation difficulties, coupled with the tightened availability and cost of capital, have caused a slowdown in commercial real estate investment and overall transactions. This situation, magnified by steep inflation and interest rate hikes, is leading to investor hesitancy. Additionally, while some businesses are instituting greater return-to-the-workplace policies, many are not, partially due to employee reluctance. Ultimately, greater clarity on businesses’ future post-pandemic workspace demands is needed to provide a more reliable window into asset valuations, particularly in the office sector.”
“As an industry, we’re working with tenants to provide attractive building safety and use amenities—and where possible, converting underutilized property types to other uses, including housing. We continue to urge policymakers and business leaders to push for the safe return of workers to their shared, physical workspace. A back-to-the-workplace movement would increase overall economic productivity and competitiveness, help preserve urban small businesses, and lower the threat to the property tax base of municipalities throughout the nation,” DeBoer added.
The Roundtable’s Economic Sentiment Index—a measure of senior executives’ confidence and expectations about the commercial real estate market environment—is scored on a scale of 1 to 100 by averaging the scores of Current and Future Economic Sentiment Indices. Any score over 50 is viewed as positive.
Although the Q4 Overall Index registered an Overall score of 39, the Current Index registered 29—a nine-point drop from Q3 2022—and the Future Index posted a score of 48 points, a dip of three points from the previous quarter. (Download Q4 report, Nov. 18)

Market Perspectives

The return of office workers to buildings in New York, Boston, Atlanta, San Francisco and other cities is languishing well below pre-pandemic levels as hybrid work, layoffs and higher interest rates act as drags on the office market, according to a Nov. 17 New York Times article. Despite the headwinds, office owners believe demand will eventually return.
Roundtable Chairman Emeritus (2015-2018) William Rudin (Co-Chairman & CEO, Rudin Management Company, Inc.) noted in the article that occupancy was much higher at buildings occupied by financial companies, many of which have required employees to return to the workplace.
The impact of layoffs, macroeconomic trends, and office demand were discussed this week by Roundtable Board Member Scott Rechler (Chairman CEO, RXR), above, in a CNBC Squawk on the Street interview. Rechler, a member of the New York Fed, said he expects the next 12 to 18 months will be “choppy” as the Federal Reserve continues to fight inflation, but that a strong economy will emerge with significant growth potential.

Economic conditions and commercial real estate markets will be discussed during The Roundtable’s Jan. 24-25 State of the Industry in Washington.

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Commercial Real Estate Executives’ Perceptions Of Industry Fundamentals Hold Steady Despite Current Market Conditions

Posted on August 9, 2022October 27, 2023 by Trey Jackson

Commercial real estate executives continue to view current conditions as significantly less favorable than previous quarters due to rising interest rates, increased inflation, supply chain disruptions, and labor shortages. However, leaders’ views of where the markets will be one year from today have improved, indicating a cautiously optimistic outlook for the future, according to The Real Estate Roundtable’s Q3 2022 Economic Sentiment Index.

Roundtable President and CEO Jeffrey DeBoer said, “Our Q3 Sentiment Index reflects many of the challenges our economy and industry have faced since early 2022. While these challenges will continue to be bottlenecks in the near term, CRE leaders are optimistic about the future, as underlying real estate fundamentals, such as housing, remain in high demand.

DeBoer added, “Industrial and multifamily continue to be a source of strength, but office and retail still struggle to regain momentum following the pandemic. These are uncertain times, but quality assets and owners will persevere as they continue to meet fundamental demand.”

The Roundtable’s Overall Q3 2022 Sentiment Index—a reflection of the views of real estate industry leaders—registered an overall score of 44. The Economic Sentiment Overall Index is scored on a scale of 1 to 100 by averaging the scores of Current and Future Indices. Any score over 50 is viewed as positive. The Current Index registered at 38, a 19-point decrease compared to Q2 2022; however, the Future Index registered a score of 51, a 5-point increase from the previous quarter, reflecting leaders’ optimism in future conditions.

Topline findings:

The Q3 2022 Real Estate Roundtable Sentiment Index registered an overall score of 44, a decrease of 7 points from the previous quarter’s overall score and 34 points lower than a year earlier.

Survey respondents are cautious of rising interest rates, increased inflation, supply chain disruptions, and other issues but remain optimistic regarding the underlying fundamentals for real estate.

While fundamentals, such as industrial and multifamily, remain strong in terms of supply and demand, there is concern over current market conditions for other asset classes, particularly office and retail.

Although in the short-term the pandemic has led to a lack of enthusiasm for office and retail assets, industry leaders expect strong, long-term demand for assets that allow increased flexibility by providing tenants with more amenities and higher quality accommodations.

Rising interest rates and general market uncertainty represent clear challenges facing asset pricing; where trades are taking place, they have been occurring at a discount relative to recent high-water marks.

In terms of capital markets, participants noted that capital is available, though market uncertainty has induced hesitancy for risk-taking and tightening across both debt and equity.

Data for the Q3 survey was gathered in July 2022 by Chicago-based Ferguson Partners on The Roundtable’s behalf. Read the full Q3 report.

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News Release: Economic Headwinds and Geopolitical Uncertainty Top CRE Executives’ Views About Q2 Market Conditions

Posted on May 16, 2022October 23, 2023 by Abigail Grenadier

(WASHINGTON, D.C.) — Commercial real estate executives remain optimistic about overall Q2 market conditions despite growing economic headwinds and geopolitical uncertainty, according to The Real Estate Roundtable’s Q2 2022 Economic Sentiment Index released today.

Roundtable President and CEO Jeffrey DeBoer said, “The decline in this quarter’s Real Estate Roundtable Sentiment Index reflects concerns regarding inflationary pressures, interest rate increases, labor shortages and supply chain disruptions. Even so, the overall sentiment of commercial real estate industry senior executives remains positive. Businesses and individuals continue to rethink how real estate meets their evolving working, living, and traveling preferences. Building owners, managers and financiers across the nation are partnering with their business and residential tenants to respond, while also pressing forward in developing and redeveloping buildings to be greener, smarter, and more efficient.”

He added, “Our Q2 Sentiment Index reveals especially bright spots for lease demand in a wide swath of the economy, particularly regarding life sciences, industrial, multifamily, and data center assets. At the same time however, high inflation, rising interest rates, labor and supply chain shortages are increasing costs associated with all real estate development and operations. The impact of ongoing war in eastern Europe is another cloud tempering optimism. We urge national policymakers to focus on creating jobs and supporting strong real estate asset values. Both actions would buttress the overall economy and help local community budgets provide needed safety, education and transportation services.”

The Roundtable’s Overall Sentiment Index—a measure of senior executives’ confidence and expectations about the commercial real estate market environments—is scored on a scale of 1 to 100 by averaging the scores of Current and Future Economic Sentiment Indices. Any score over 50 is viewed as positive.

Topline findings include:

The Q2 2022 Real Estate Roundtable Sentiment Index registered an overall score of 51, a decrease of 15 points from the previous quarter’s overall score and 26 points lower than a year earlier. Survey respondents remain optimistic but have tempered their expectations due to geopolitical and economic uncertainties, which include rising interest rates, increased inflation, and labor and supply chain shortfalls.

Perceptions vary by property type and geography, with industrial, multifamily, life sciences, and data centers continuing to be most favored. As employers continue to roll out return-to-office policies, the demand for office space remains uncertain.

Asset values have trended upward across asset classes compared to last year, while forward-looking expectations are starting to taper off.

Participants cited a continued availability of debt and equity capital despite those heightened concerns over rising interest rates, geopolitical concerns, and inflationary risk.

Data for the Q2 survey was gathered in April by Chicago-based Ferguson Partners on The Roundtable’s behalf. See the full Q2 report.

The Real Estate Roundtable brings together leaders of the nation’s top publicly-held and privately-owned real estate ownership, development, lending and management firms with the leaders of major national real estate trade associations to jointly address key national policy issues relating to real estate and the overall economy.

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Economic Headwinds and Geopolitical Uncertainty Top CRE Executives’ Views About Q2 Market Conditions

Posted on May 13, 2022October 27, 2023 by Trey Jackson

Commercial real estate executives remain optimistic about overall Q2 market conditions despite growing economic headwinds and geopolitical uncertainty, according to The Real Estate Roundtable’s Q2 2022 Economic Sentiment Index released on May 13, 2022.

Roundtable President and CEO Jeffrey DeBoer, above, said, “The decline in this quarter’s Real Estate Roundtable Sentiment Index reflects concerns regarding inflationary pressures, interest rate increases, labor shortages and supply chain disruptions. Even so, the overall sentiment of commercial real estate industry senior executives remains positive. Businesses and individuals continue to rethink how real estate meets their evolving working, living, and traveling preferences. Building owners, managers and financiers across the nation are partnering with their business and residential tenants to respond, while also pressing forward in developing and redeveloping buildings to be greener, smarter, and more efficient.”

He added, “Our Q2 Sentiment Index reveals especially bright spots for lease demand in a wide swath of the economy, particularly regarding life sciences, industrial, multifamily, and data center assets. At the same time however, high inflation, rising interest rates, labor and supply chain shortages are increasing costs associated with all real estate development and operations. The impact of ongoing war in eastern Europe is another cloud tempering optimism. We urge national policymakers to focus on creating jobs and supporting strong real estate asset values. Both actions would buttress the overall economy and help local community budgets provide needed safety, education and transportation services.”

The Roundtable’s Overall Sentiment Index—a measure of senior executives’ confidence and expectations about the commercial real estate market environments—is scored on a scale of 1 to 100 by averaging the scores of Current and Future Economic Sentiment Indices. Any score over 50 is viewed as positive.

Topline findings include:

The Roundtable’s Q2 2022 Economic Sentiment Index registered an overall score of 51, a decrease of 15 points from the previous quarter’s overall score and 26 points lower than a year earlier. Survey respondents remain optimistic but have tempered their expectations due to geopolitical and economic uncertainties, which include rising interest rates, increased inflation, and labor and supply chain shortfalls.

Perceptions vary by property type and geography, with industrial, multifamily, life sciences, and data centers continuing to be most favored. As employers continue to roll out return-to-office policies, the demand for office space remains uncertain.

Asset values have trended upward across asset classes compared to last year, while forward-looking expectations are starting to taper off.

Participants cited a continued availability of debt and equity capital despite heightened concerns over rising interest rates, geopolitical concerns, and inflationary risk.

Data for the Q2 survey was gathered in April by Chicago-based Ferguson Partners on The Roundtable’s behalf. See the full Q2 report.

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CRE Executives’ Optimism About Q1 Market Conditions Tempered by Inflation and Interest Rate Concerns

Posted on February 18, 2022October 27, 2023 by Trey Jackson

As the economy continues to recover from the global pandemic, commercial real estate executives see strong market fundamentals and steady economic growth, according to The Real Estate Roundtable’s Q1 2022 Economic Sentiment Index. While optimistic about the economic outlook going forward, inflation concerns and a rising interest rate environment are frequently cited as potential headwinds for the industry.

Market Conditions

Additionally, Roundtable Chair John Fish (Chairman and CEO, Suffolk), above, on Feb. 14 discussed the real estate market and return-to-office efforts on Bloomberg’s “The Tape” podcast. (Listen to podcast from 10:45 to 16:55)
The Roundtable’s Overall Q1 2022 Sentiment Index—a reflection of the views of real estate industry leaders—registered a score of 66, a seven-point increase relative to the Q1 2021 score, demonstrating continued optimism for market conditions despite a decrease of seven points from Q4 2021. The Current Index registered at 71, a 27- point increase compared to Q1 2021. The Economic Sentiment Overall Index is scored on a scale of 1 to 100 by averaging the scores of Current and Future Indices. Any score over 50 is viewed as positive.
The Roundtable’s quarterly economic survey also shows that 69 percent of respondents believe that general market conditions today are “much better or somewhat better” versus one year ago—and that 53 percent anticipate conditions will continue to improve one year from now.
Roundtable President and CEO Jeffrey DeBoer said, “We are encouraged by the decreasing number of cases of COVID-19, pandemic-related restrictions being lifted throughout the country, cities continuing to reopen safely and efficiently, and increased travel and consumer spending. Our nation’s post-pandemic recovery is reliant on the revitalization of cities, safe transportation systems, significant return of employees to the workplace, and healthy real estate values.”
He added, “Throughout the pandemic the real estate industry has assisted suddenly jobless residents and troubled business tenants restructure leases to remain in their properties. Industry leaders now look forward to reimagining people’s living, shopping, work, and other spaces in the built environment to accommodate the evolving needs of the post-COVID economy.”

Topline Findings

The Q1 2022 Real Estate Roundtable Sentiment Index registered a score of 66, a decrease of seven points from the fourth quarter of 2021 but a seven-point increase over Q1 2021. While optimistic about the economic outlook going forward, inflation concerns and a rising interest rate environment were frequently cited as potential headwinds for the industry.
Survey respondents’ outlook varied between asset classes and location; most participants felt that real estate assets, particularly single and multifamily housing and industrial, remain largely “priced to perfection” with limited supply being chased by seemingly “boundless” capital.
This supply-demand imbalance has generally led to compressed cap rates across favorable asset classes and results in perceptions that valuations will remain elevated.
Participants cited a continued abundance of debt and equity capital and strong investor demand for real estate.

Data for the Q1 survey was gathered in January by Chicago-based Ferguson Partners on The Roundtable’s behalf. See the full Q1 report.

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Commercial Real Estate Executives Report Steady Q4 Market Fundamentals

Posted on November 19, 2021October 27, 2023 by Trey Jackson

Commercial real estate leaders report positive market fundamentals across asset classes, according to The Real Estate Roundtable’s Q4 2021 Economic Sentiment Index. Industry leaders describe steady supply, demand and financial conditions for multifamily, industrial, life science and other assets while expressing some caution about the strength of office and hotel assets. Leaders also noted conditions vary by geography and local governmental policies.

Topline Findings

The Roundtable’s Overall Q4 2021 Sentiment Index registered a score of 73, which reflects continued optimism about general market conditions despite a slight dip of five points from the previous quarter. The Economic Sentiment Overall Index is scored on a scale of 1 to 100 by averaging the scores of Current and Future Indices. Any score over 50 is viewed as positive.
Roundtable President and CEO Jeffrey DeBoer (above) said, “Our Q4 Sentiment Index score is a 29-point increase over the same time period last year. This is a solid indication of significant progress in the overall economy as more businesses continue to reopen under cautious, local COVID-19 protocols.”
He added, “CRE leaders are encouraged by the safe (albeit slow) return of employees to their work places, robust retail consumer appetites, and the gradual return of domestic and international travelers to hotels, resorts and other hospitality assets. The commercial real estate industry continues to play an active role in accommodating new business and individual preferences that will help the economy adjust post-COVID.”
“Industry leaders are concerned with accelerating inflation, supply chain obstacles and still unclear questions regarding future office space desires,” DeBoer noted.
The Roundtable’s quarterly economic survey also shows that 85 percent of respondents believe that general market conditions today are “much better or somewhat better” versus one year ago – and that 61 percent anticipate conditions will continue to improve one year from now.
The report’s Topline Findings include:
- The Q4 2021 Real Estate Roundtable Sentiment Index registered a score of 73, a decrease of five points from the third quarter of 2021 and a 29-point increase over Q4 2020. Despite the slight downtick from Q3, participants largely expressed optimism regarding the current fundamentals of the commercial real estate market.
- That said, perceptions vary by property type and geography, with industrial, multifamily, life sciences and data centers most in favor. Delayed return-to-office policies and questions about office space demands have resulted in a degree of uncertainty.
- Asset values have trended upward across asset classes compared to the previous quarter.
- Participants cited a continued availability of debt and equity capital. International investors remain highly interested in opportunities within the United States.

Infrastructure & CRE

DeBoer also noted, “The recent passage of the $1.2 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill by Congress will help the commercial real estate industry to ramp up its existing suite of climate-friendly practices by reimagining, building and retrofitting America’s built environment.”
He added, “The Roundtable is also encouraged that the bill emphasized the expanded use of public-private partnerships to reach infrastructure goals – as well as measures that will streamline the federal permitting process and improve key federal energy data that support EPA building labels.”

Data for the Q4 survey was gathered in October by Chicago-based Ferguson Partners on The Roundtable’s behalf. See the full Q4 report.

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Commercial Real Estate Leaders Report Improving Market Conditions Amid Uncertain Return-to-Office Trends

Posted on August 13, 2021October 27, 2023 by Trey Jackson

Commercial real estate executives report improving market conditions, through consistent growth of various asset classes, despite uncertainty surrounding employees returning to the office, according to The Real Estate Roundtable’s Q3 2021 Economic Sentiment Survey released today. The report shows the continued positive momentum for industrial, multifamily and single-family assets, with hospitality continuing to improve with increased travel.

Market Conditions

“As the commercial real estate industry continues to adapt in the face of the global pandemic, we recognize the changing demands and expectations for hospitality, shopping centers, office buildings, travel and convening spaces,” said Real Estate Roundtable President and CEO Jeffrey DeBoer. “Strong, stable and growing real estate markets can be a driving force for the nation’s economic recovery, and contribute productively to a world struggling to overcome COVID and its variants. Investment in these reimagined spaces presents the opportunity to move the economy forward for the benefit of all Americans.”
The Roundtable’s Q3 Current Conditions Index of 85 increased 7 points from the previous quarter, the highest index recorded in its thirteen year history.
The Economic Sentiment Overall Index is scored on a scale of 1 to 100 by averaging Current and Future Indices; any score over 50 is viewed as positive. The Roundtable’s Overall Q3 2021 Sentiment Index registered at 78 – a one-point increase from the previous quarter.
The Roundtable’s quarterly survey shows that 89 percent of respondents believe that general market conditions today are “much better or somewhat better” versus one year ago – with an abundance of available capital compared to one year ago.
However, this quarter’s Future Conditions Index of 71 decreased 4 points compared to last quarter, indicating uncertainty still remains while the country continues to recover from the COVID-19 crisis.

Topline Findings:

Chicago skyline upward

The Q3 2021 Real Estate Roundtable Sentiment Index registered a score of 78, an increase of 1 point from the second quarter of 2021 and a 36-point increase over Q3 2020. The speed of the economic recovery compared to only 6 months ago has provided more clarity and certainty for specific asset classes, with the biggest looming question marks being the impact of employees returning to the office and rising inflation risk.
Industrial performed exceptionally well throughout the pandemic and has maintained positive momentum through the first half of 2021. Additionally, multifamily and single-family suburban assets continue to attract strong demand. Previously challenged assets such as hospitality have rebounded and remain hopeful to reach pre-pandemic levels with increased travel and employees returning to the office.
Assets classes with durability or the perception of durability such as high-quality multifamily, long-term net lease office, and industrial have all hit record levels, all while certain sectors and regional markets (in particular, those relying heavily on mass transit) have yet to fully recover.
Respondents cited a continued abundance of available debt and equity capital, which has led to significant amounts of capital sitting on the sidelines waiting for attractive deployment opportunities.

DeBoer also noted, “Historically, the real estate industry has played a pivotal role in catalyzing economic recovery following national and worldwide events, and we have the opportunity to play that role again. With the recent infrastructure policy developments in Washington, it is a once-in-a-generation opportunity to rebuild cleaner, safer, and more climate-friendly buildings. With private capital readily available for investment, we are hopeful federal and public private partnerships will continue to fuel job creation and equitable economic development needed to continue the progress made in the economic recovery.”

Data for the Q3 survey was gathered in July by Chicago-based Ferguson Partners on The Roundtable’s behalf. For the full Q3 report, visit here.

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Commercial Real Estate Executives Report Improved Current Markets and Caution Ahead

Posted on May 28, 2021October 27, 2023 by Trey Jackson

Commercial real estate executives report Q2 market conditions have stabilized since the previous quarter, yet note the future is clouded by concerns about labor shortages, inflationary pressures and the outcome of current policy proposals in Washington, according to The Real Estate Roundtable’s Q2 Economic Sentiment Index.

Current and Future Sentiment

The Roundtable’s Overall Sentiment Index is scored on a scale of 1 to 100 by averaging Current and Future Indices; any result over 50 is viewed as positive. This quarter’s Overall Sentiment registered a score of 77.
The Roundtable’s Q2 Current Sentiment score of 78 is a 34-point increase over Q1, reflecting increased vaccination, a reduction in the number of positive COVID tests, and moves to reopen businesses. The current sentiment score also stands in contrast to the economic environment of one year ago, when the current sentiment score hit 13, an 11-year low.
However, sentiment reported in Q2 about Future Conditions registered a flat score of 75 – only one point more than the previous quarter – reflecting continued concerns about the pandemic’s long-term impacts.

Roundtable Insight

Roundtable President and CEO Jeffrey DeBoer said, “Industry leaders are encouraged by the steady progress of vaccinations, rapidly declining infection rates and businesses reopening, but their ongoing concerns over increasing construction costs, inflationary pressures and labor supply have resulted in a more measured outlook.”
“As the long-term economic repercussions of the pandemic remain unclear, Washington lawmakers should prioritize new policies that encourage continued economic growth over initiatives that could hinder the recovery,” DeBoer added.
The Roundtable’s survey for the Q2 Sentiment Index also shows that eighty-three percent of respondents believe that general market conditions today are “much better or somewhat better” versus one year ago – and that availability of capital remains plentiful compared to one year ago.
The Roundtable’s Q2 Economic Sentiment Index’s Topline Findings include:
- An Improvement in Current Market Conditions
  Respondents’ views reflect the progress of the national vaccination rollout and improvements in near-term conditions, compared to the economic trough one year ago.
- Increasing Values for In-Demand Asset Classes
  Respondents report investors are starting to bid up asking prices for in-demand asset classes such as life science and storage.
- Steady Capital Markets
  Most respondents cited accessible capital market for debt and equity, especially when compared to a far more difficult overall market one year ago.

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Roundtable’s Q1 Sentiment Index Shows CRE Execs Optimistic About Market Conditions

Posted on March 6, 2021October 27, 2023 by Trey Jackson

Commercial real estate industry leaders continue to acknowledge the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on various asset classes, while expressing increased optimism about market conditions for the remainder of 2021, according to The Real Estate Roundtable’s Q1 2021 Economic Sentiment Index. The March 3 Index also reports on growth potential for the industrial and multifamily sectors, while hospitality and retail continue to face challenges due to government restrictions and health guidelines.

Real Estate Roundtable President and CEO Jeffrey DeBoer stated, “Our Q1 index indicates that despite the extremely challenging past 12 months, industry leaders are optimistic that market conditions are trending in positive way. General supply and demand market balance, functioning capital markets, and low leverage – combined with increased vaccination efforts – have sparked the strong uptick in optimism. Of course all of this is threatened if vaccinations stall overall, or if national policymakers impose new tax or regulatory burdens on the industry.”

DeBoer also noted the positive role that real estate has played in combatting the pandemic. “Throughout the pandemic, real estate owners, managers, investors and lenders each have focused on mitigating the impact of the crisis on their residential and business tenants. The industry has restructured leases with tenants under stress, advocated for federal rental and other assistance, helped educate tenants on how to access relief, provided significant reforms to health-related building operational protocols, and issued detailed guidance to ensure safe and effective ways to re-enter buildings,” he said.

The Roundtable’s Q1 2021 Sentiment Index registered at 59 – a fifteen-point increase from the previous quarter. [The Overall Index is scored on a scale of 1 to 100 by averaging Current and Future Indices; any score over 50 is viewed as positive.]. This quarter’s Current Conditions Index of 44 increased 17 points from the previous quarter, while this quarter’s Future Conditions Index of 74, is an increase of 13 points compared to last quarter. The last time the Future Conditions Index registered at 74 was Q3 2010.
The report’s Topline Findings include:

The Q1 2021 Real Estate Roundtable Sentiment Index registered a score of 59, an increase of 15 points from the fourth quarter of 2020. Respondents continued to express optimism about future conditions; however, the outlook is highly dependent upon asset class and portfolio mix.
The industrial and multifamily sectors were cited as having been the most resilient to the global pandemic, and best positioned to emerge successful in a post-pandemic environment. Retail and hospitality sectors continue to face challenges stemming from public health measures and government restrictions.
Low transaction volume has resulted in limited visibility into asset valuations over the past year. Among the trades that have occurred, industrial assets have seen their values increase, mirroring the market overall, while multifamily properties are trading at a slight discount to their pre-COVID values.
Capital flows within the real estate market are following the sector-specific impacts of the pandemic. Most respondents cited accessible capital markets for high quality assets, particularly in the industrial and multifamily spaces. However, out-of-favor property types and strategies with leasing and/or development exposure are finding it more difficult to secure institutional equity and financing.

Data for the Q1 survey was gathered by Chicago-based FPL Associates on The Roundtable’s behalf. For the full Q1 report, visit here and full news release.

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Q1 Survey: Commercial Real Estate Executives Express Optimism About Current and Future Market Conditions

Posted on March 4, 2021October 27, 2023 by Trey Jackson

Current Conditions Index Increases Seventeen Points from Previous Quarter

(WASHINGTON, D.C.) — Commercial real estate industry leaders continue to acknowledge the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on various asset classes, while expressing increased optimism for both current and future market conditions for the remainder of 2021, according to The Real Estate Roundtable’s Q1 2021 Economic Sentiment Survey released today. The report outlined the potential for growth for the industrial and multifamily sectors, while hospitality and retail continue to face challenges due to government restrictions and health guidelines.

“Throughout the pandemic real estate owners, managers, investors and lenders each have focused on mitigating the impact of the crisis on their residential and business tenants,” said Real Estate Roundtable President and CEO Jeffrey D. DeBoer. “The industry has restructured leases with tenants under stress, advocated for federal rental and other assistance, helped educate tenants on how to access relief, provided significant reforms to health related building operational protocols, and issued detailed guidance to ensure safe and effective ways to re-enter buildings.” DeBoer added, “Our Q1 index indicates that despite the extremely challenging past 12 months, industry leaders are optimistic that conditions are trending in positive way. General supply and demand market balance, functioning capital markets, and low leverage, combined with increased vaccination efforts have sparked the strong uptick in optimism. Of course all of this is threatened to be reversed if vaccinations stall overall, or if national policymakers impose new tax or regulatory burdens on the industry.”

The Roundtable’s Q1 2021 Sentiment Index registered at 59 – a fifteen-point increase from the previous quarter. [The Overall Index is scored on a scale of 1 to 100 by averaging Current and Future Indices; any score over 50 is viewed as positive.]. This quarter’s Current Conditions Index of 44 increased 17 points from the previous quarter, while this quarter’s Future Conditions Index of 74, is an increase of 13 points compared to last quarter. The last time the Future Conditions Index registered at 74 was more than a decade ago in Q3 2010.

The report’s Topline Findings include:

The Q1 2021 Real Estate Roundtable Sentiment Index registered a score of 59, an increase of 15 points from the fourth quarter of 2020. Respondents continued to express optimism about future conditions; however, the outlook is highly dependent upon asset class and portfolio mix.

The industrial and multifamily sectors were cited as having been the most resilient to the global pandemic, and best positioned to emerge successful in a post-pandemic environment. Retail and hospitality sectors continue to face challenges stemming from public health measures and government restrictions.

Low transaction volume has resulted in limited visibility into asset valuations over the past year. Among the trades that have occurred, industrial assets have seen their values increase, mirroring the market overall, while multifamily properties are trading at a slight discount to their pre-COVID values.

Capital flows within the real estate market are following the sector-specific impacts of the pandemic. Most respondents cited accessible capital markets for high quality assets, particularly in the industrial and multifamily spaces. However, out-of-favor property types and strategies with leasing and/or development exposure are finding it more difficult to secure institutional equity and financing.

DeBoer noted, “The Roundtable remains committed to working with the Administration and Congress to advance bipartisan federal measures that will accelerate the economic recovery and strengthen our resiliency in the event of future pandemics or similar threats: provide direct relief to workers and families, rental assistance for both residential and business tenants, temporary tax incentives to offset the cost of critical health and safety measures implemented by employers, and legal liability safeguards for businesses that clearly define expectations and create much-needed certainty for employers to facilitate a return to work.”

Data for the Q1 survey was gathered by Chicago-based FPL Associates on The Roundtable’s behalf. For the full Q1 report, visit here.