Tag: Interest Rates

Fed Cuts Rates Again: Slower Path Ahead Amid Inflation Concerns

Posted on by Abigail Grenadier

The Federal Reserve reduced its benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point Wednesday, bringing it to a target range of 4.25% to 4.50%. While the cut provides some relief to borrowers, the central bank signaled a more cautious pace for future rate reductions as inflationary pressures persist. (Axios, Dec. 18)

Why It Matters

  • The Fed’s decision reflects its effort to balance slowing inflation with a resilient economy.
  • Powell cited recent data, and not just potential policy changes, justified an adjustment to the inflation forecast. Additionally, the labor market has proven more resilient than officials anticipated when they began rate cuts in September. (WSJ, Dec. 18)
  • “We are at or near a point at which it will be appropriate to slow the pace of further adjustments,” Fed chair Jerome Powell told reporters at a press conference on Wednesday, referring to the decision to cut rates. (Press Conference, Dec. 18)
  • The Fed’s latest quarterly projections suggest a slower path to lower rates, with officials anticipating only two rate cuts in 2025, down from four or five predicted in September. (AP News, Dec. 18)
  • Beth Hammack, President of the Cleveland Federal Reserve, dissented from the decision, advocating for steady rates.

Looking Ahead

  • The incoming Trump administration is expected to pursue policies such as deregulation, tax cuts, and a growth-focused agenda.
  • While policies like deregulation and tax cuts could stimulate growth, tariffs and deportations threaten to exacerbate inflationary pressures.
  • Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that some officials have started factoring in “highly conditional estimates” of the potential economic impacts of Trump administration policies into their forecasts.
  • The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) emphasized that further cuts would depend on incoming data, stating it will assess “the extent and timing” of future adjustments. (Summary of Economic Projections, Dec. 18)
  • The Fed now projects inflation to reach 2.5% in 2025, higher than its September forecast of 2.1%, reflecting expectations of slower progress in curbing price increases. (CBS, Dec. 18)
  • For CRE, adaptability remains key as the macroeconomic environment evolves.

The Fed’s next meeting will be January 28-29, 2025, a week after inauguration, and RER’s all-member State of the Industry (SOI) Meeting on January 22-23. 

View from the CEO: Priorities for the CRE Industry in 2025

Posted on by Abigail Grenadier

With control over the White House and both chambers of Congress decided, attention has turned to how President-elect Donald Trump’s second term will affect the commercial real estate industry.

Looking Ahead

  • As Roundtable President & CEO Jeff DeBoer noted to BisNow last week, the new administration represents a chance to strengthen policymakers’ understanding of the critical role CRE plays in the economy. (BisNow, Nov. 12)
  • “Anytime that there’s a turning of the page, there’s an opportunity to emphasize new issues, or to bring priority to older issues that maybe have been pushed out by previous leaders,” DeBoer told BisNow. DeBoer also highlighted key policy priorities for commercial real estate to move forward in the coming administration, including housing, tax, capital markets, and energy.

Housing Policy

  • Interagency task force: The Roundtable is calling for a federal task force focused on expanding the housing supply, particularly affordable housing. This task force would coordinate efforts across agencies to streamline building processes and reduce regulatory barriers, incentivizing new development across the U.S.
  • Property conversions: The administration should support federal incentives for (such as low interest loans) converting obsolete office buildings into residential housing. Modeled after tax credits for historic preservation, bipartisan legislation like the Revitalizing Downtowns and Main Streets Act could help relieve the national housing shortage. (Roundtable Weekly, July 12)
  • Tariff concerns: Proposed tariffs on materials like lumber, steel, concrete, glass and appliances could impact housing supply: “By putting tariffs on housing materials, you will be indirectly increasing costs for buyers and renters and making it more difficult to solve this housing crisis,” said DeBoer.

Tax Policy

  • With key provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (TCJA) expiring soon, tax legislation will likely be central to President-elect Trump’s first 100 days.
  • Capital gains: Long-standing elements of the tax code, including the reduced rate for capital gains, the ability to reinvest through like-kind exchanges, and step-up in basis of assets at death, are critical for real estate businesses and encourage productive investment and economic growth. RER will continue to advocate that these provisions be maintained.
  • Section 199A: The qualified business income deduction for pass-through businesses, known as Section 199A, ensures that small businesses can compete on a level playing field with public corporations. RER supports extending the deduction, which is currently set to expire.
  • Foreign investment: Restrictions on foreign investment discourage capital formation and could hinder growth in real estate at a time when increasing the supply and availability of capital is critical to the industry’s recovery. Policymakers should avoid imposing additional restrictions or tax burdens on foreign investors, and consider repealing or reforming the Foreign Investment in Real Property Tax Act (FIRPTA).

Capital Markets

  • Strengthening capital flows in real estate is a top priority, as lending and credit availability have remained relatively weak since the pandemic and are only recently starting to see improvement.
  • Interest rates: Policymakers should carefully consider the inflationary effects of fiscal policies to maintain a favorable interest rate environment. Avoiding increased capital requirements, such as Basel III Endgame proposal, is also necessary to prevent hindering growth.

Energy Policy

  • With the rise of data centers, AI and other energy-intensive sectors, addressing energy capacity and permitting is a critical bipartisan need and “very important” to RER’s agenda, as DeBoer noted.

RER is committed to working proactively and productively with President-elect Trump and the 119th Congress to support the needs of the economy and commercial real estate industry.

The Federal Reserve Cuts Interests Rates

Posted on by Abigail Grenadier

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve reduced interest rates by half a percentage point, marking the
first rate cut in four years. The target rate now stands at 4.75-5%, with important implications for the commercial real estate industry and broader economy. (Federal Reserve Press Release | Washington Post, Sept. 18)

Fed’s Decision           

  • Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that while inflation is easing, falling below 3% from a peak of 9.1% in June 2022, the labor market needs support to prevent further weakening.
  • At a news conference after the meeting, Chair Powell said, “This recalibration of our policy stance will help maintain the strength of the economy and the labor market, and will continue to enable further progress on inflation.” (WSJ, Sept. 18)
  • Fed officials project the target rate will decrease to 3.4% by the end of 2025, indicating four quarter-point cuts over the next year.    

Impacts on CRE    

  • The rate cut comes at a time when the real estate capital markets landscape remains challenging. However, this move could improve credit capacity and capital availability and help stabilize asset values.
  • Prior to the rate cut, The Roundtable’s Q3 2024 Sentiment Index revealed that a majority of respondents expected improvements in the availability of both equity capital (71%) and debt capital (60%) within the next year.
  • Meanwhile, 88% of respondents expressed optimism that asset values will either increase (57%) or remain stable (31%) over the same period. Stay tuned for The Roundtable’s Q4 Sentiment Index, which will provide further insights into how the rate adjustment is impacting real estate markets.

Looking Ahead

  • Chair Powell added that decisions regarding further rate adjustments will be data-driven and made on a meeting-to-meeting basis.
  • Roundtable President & CEO Jeffrey DeBoer commented on the impact for commercial real estate: “The Fed’s rate cuts will bring much-needed relief to the industry. Lower borrowing costs could help address the wave of maturing commercial real estate loans, reignite stalled projects and encourage new investments, helping stabilize property values as we move into a more favorable lending environment.”
  • A mix of lower rates and corporate decisions like Amazon’s office return could help stabilize the office sector still grappling with the post-pandemic shift toward remote work. (Business Insider, Sept. 18)
  • This environment also presents multifamily investors with opportunities to refinance properties, reduce payments, improve cash flow, and capitalize on lower borrowing costs, while exploring new asset classes as valuations stabilize. (JPMorgan, Sept. 19)

The Fed has two more opportunities to adjust interest rates in 2024, with meetings scheduled for November 6-7 and December 17-18.

Federal Reserve Leaves Rates Unchanged

Posted on by Abigail Grenadier

The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously this week to maintain the federal funds rate at the 5.25%-5.5% range where it has been since July of last year. (Federal Reserve Press Release)

Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting

  • After the meeting Wednesday, Fed chair Jerome Powell said at a news conference that he saw either one or two rate cuts this year as “plausible” scenarios. (Axios, June 12)
  • “What everyone agrees on is it’s going to be data dependent,” Powell added.
  • The FOMC issued a statement indicating that lowering inflation to 2 percent is their primary objective before reductions can occur.
  • The FOMC currently anticipates making four quarter-point cuts next year, bringing the federal funds rate down by 1.25 percentage points from its current level.

Congressional Pushback

  • Senators Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), Jacky Rosen (D-NV), and John Hickenlooper (D-CO) wrote to Fed chair Jerome Powell, urging the Fed to cut the federal funds interest rates from its current, two-decade-high of 5.5 percent, citing that other major central banks around the globe have made cuts or are leaning toward lowering interest rates. (Press Release | Letter)
  • Their letter also raises concerns that high interest rates are increasing the costs of housing and insurance, continuing to hurt Americans as rates remain unchanged.
  • On housing prices, the senators wrote: “The country is already facing a severe housing shortage, and the Fed’s refusal to bring down interest rates is exacerbating this shortage and driving higher inflation rates…Lower mortgage rates would encourage more people to sell their homes, which would in turn increase housing supply, decrease prices, ease the costs of renting, and ultimately increase homeownership.”
  • Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI), chairman of the Senate’s Budget Committee, and Rep. Brendan Boyle (D-PA), ranking member of the House Budget Committee, also wrote to Chairman Powell echoing their concerns that high interest rates are exacerbating the housing supply crisis. (Letter)

Next week, at The Roundtable’s all-member Annual Meeting, we will hear economic and market forecasts from a panel of Roundtable members and Kenneth T. Rosen, Chairman, Fisher Center for Real Estate and Urban Economics at the Haas School of Business at the University of California, Berkeley; Chairman, Rosen Consulting Group.

While Uncertainty Remains, Commercial Real Estate Executives Are Optimistic About Future Market Conditions

Posted on by Abigail Grenadier

The Real Estate Roundtable’s Q1 Economic Sentiment Index reports that industry executives, while optimistic about the future, remain uncertain about current market conditions, citing inflation, rising interest rates, and supply chain disruptions as concerns. However, executives also express that perceptions and outlooks differ across asset classes, as some remain strong and others show concerns.

  • Roundtable President and CEO Jeffrey DeBoer said, “Fundamentally, our Q1 index illustrates that the trends accelerated by the pandemic have led to mixed performances across asset classes. Multifamily and industrial assets have maintained steady growth due to increased housing demand and supply chain needs, while hospitality and student housing are regaining momentum. But in the office sector, remote work policies, concerns over crime and transportation are driving record-high vacancy rates throughout the country, hurting city budgets and small businesses.”
  • “Looking forward, industry leaders are anticipating the landscape to improve throughout the year, despite recent declines in asset values and the decreased availability of debt and equity capital compared to a year ago. Policymakers should emphasize the need to return to the workplace while considering other innovative solutions such as legislation to convert underutilized offices to housing to entrench this optimism, create jobs, spur economic activity, and increase housing supply and tax revenue,” DeBoer added.
  • The Roundtable’s Economic Sentiment Index—a measure of senior executives’ confidence and expectations about the commercial real estate market environment—is scored on a scale of 1 to 100 by averaging the scores of Current and Future Economic Sentiment Indices.­­­­ Any score over 50 is viewed as positive. ­­­­

Top Line Findings

  • The Q1 2023 Real Estate Roundtable Sentiment Index registered an overall score of 44, an increase of five points from the previous quarter. The Current Index registered at 31, a two-point increase from Q4 2022, and the Future Index posted a score of 58 points, an increase of ten points from the previous quarter.
  • Several survey respondents acknowledged the dangers of generalizing trends across the commercial real estate industry as the disparities between asset classes grow; multifamily and industrial continue to attract interest, hospitality and student housing are beginning to bounce back, meanwhile Class B office is struggling.
  • Nearly all survey participants (93%) expressed that asset values have fallen year-over-year. That said, conversations with industry leaders suggest that the market is still in a period of price discovery. With low transaction volume and a limited supply of debt capital, there is lingering uncertainty as to where asset prices will ultimately land.
  • Survey participants overwhelmingly indicated that the availability of debt and equity capital is worse today compared to one year ago (93% and 82% respectfully). However, over half of participants expect the capital markets landscape to improve over the next 12 months.

Data for the Q1 survey was gathered in January by Chicago-based Ferguson Partners on The Roundtable’s behalf.  See the full Q1 report. 

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News Release: While Uncertainty Remains, Commercial Real Estate Executives Are Optimistic About Future Market Conditions

Posted on by Abigail Grenadier

(WASHINGTON, D.C.) — The Real Estate Roundtable’s Q1 Economic Sentiment Index reports that industry executives, while optimistic about the future, remain uncertain about current market conditions, citing inflation, rising interest rates, and supply chain disruptions as concerns. However, executives also express that perceptions and outlooks differ across asset classes, as some remain strong and others show concerns.

Roundtable President and CEO Jeffrey DeBoer said, “Fundamentally, our Q1 index illustrates that the trends accelerated by the pandemic have led to mixed performances across asset classes. Multifamily and industrial assets have maintained steady growth due to increased housing demand and supply chain needs, while hospitality and student housing are regaining momentum. But in the office sector, remote work policies, concerns over crime and transportation are driving record-high vacancy rates throughout the country, hurting city budgets and small businesses.”

“Looking forward, industry leaders are anticipating the landscape to improve throughout the year, despite recent declines in asset values and the decreased availability of debt and equity capital compared to a year ago. Policymakers should emphasize the need to return to the workplace while considering other innovative solutions such as legislation to convert underutilized offices to housing to entrench this optimism, create jobs, spur economic activity, and increase housing supply and tax revenue,” DeBoer added.

The Roundtable’s Economic Sentiment Index—a measure of senior executives’ confidence and expectations about the commercial real estate market environment—is scored on a scale of 1 to 100 by averaging the scores of Current and Future Economic Sentiment Indices.­­­­ Any score over 50 is viewed as positive. ­­­­

The Q1 Sentiment Index topline findings include:

  • The Q1 2023 Real Estate Roundtable Sentiment Index registered an overall score of 44, an increase of five points from the previous quarter. The Current Index registered at 31, a two-point increase from Q4 2022, and the Future Index posted a score of 58 points, an increase of ten points from the previous quarter.
  • Several survey respondents acknowledged the dangers of generalizing trends across the commercial real estate industry as the disparities between asset classes grow; multifamily and industrial continue to attract interest, hospitality and student housing are beginning to bounce back, meanwhile Class B office is struggling.
  • Nearly all survey participants (93%) expressed that asset values have fallen year-over-year. That said, conversations with industry leaders suggest that the market is still in a period of price discovery. With low transaction volume and a limited supply of debt capital, there is lingering uncertainty as to where asset prices will ultimately land.
  • Survey participants overwhelmingly indicated that the availability of debt and equity capital is worse today compared to one year ago (93% and 82% respectfully). However, over half of participants expect the capital markets to improve over the next 12 months.

Data for the Q1 survey was gathered in January by Chicago-based Ferguson Partners on The Roundtable’s behalf.  See the full Q1 report.

The Real Estate Roundtable brings together leaders of the nation’s top publicly-held and privately-owned real estate ownership, development, lending and management firms with the leaders of major national real estate trade associations to jointly address key national policy issues relating to real estate and the overall economy

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Fed Poised to Raise Interest Rates Amid Growing Concerns About Escalating Trade Disputes

Posted on by Trey Jackson

Federal Reserve policymakers this week signaled they are likely to raise interest rates next month, after releasing minutes of their most recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting showing growing concerns over the economic repercussions from escalating trade disputes. 

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell today delivered remarks on “Monetary Policy in a Changing Economy” at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s annual economic symposium .  (reference:  Powell’s speech, Aug. 24)  

  • Fed Chairman Jerome Powell today delivered remarks on “Monetary Policy in a Changing Economy” at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s annual economic symposium .  Powell said the Fed faces two major risks of “moving too fast and needlessly shortening the expansion, versus moving too slowly and risking a destabilizing overheating.  I see the current path of gradually raising interest rates as the FOMC approach to taking seriously both of these risks.”  ( Powell’s speech , Aug. 24)   
  • As central bankers and economists gathered this week for the symposium, Kansas City Fed President Esther George yesterday told Bloomberg Television, “My own forecast is that it will be appropriate to raise rates a couple more times this year.”  Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan added in a CNBC interview that he sees three or four rate increases necessary over the next nine to 12 months.  
  • FOMC members are aiming to set interest rates to a “neutral” setting — one that neither spurs nor slows economic growth.  Powell’s comments at today’s symposium come after his testimony before the Senate Banking Committee last month, when he stated, “With a strong job market, inflation close to our objective, and the risks to the outlook roughly balanced, the FOMC believes that – for now – the best way forward is to keep gradually raising the federal funds rate,” (Roundtable Weekly, July 20)  
  • Regarding commercial real estate, the FOMC’s meeting minutes released Wednesday show “CRE loans at banks maintained solid growth over the past several quarters, with growth shared across all three major CRE loan categories.”

    • FOMC minutes show growing concern among monetary policymakers over how trade disputes could pose a threat to economic growth.

  • The minutes also show growing concern among monetary policymakers over how trade disputes could pose a threat to economic growth.  “All participants pointed to ongoing trade disagreements and proposed trade measures as an important source of uncertainty and risks.  Participants observed that if a large-scale and prolonged dispute over trade policies developed, there would likely be adverse effects on business sentiment, investment spending, and employment,” according to the  Fed’s minutes.  
  • “Moreover, wide-ranging tariff increases would also reduce the purchasing power of U.S. households.  Further negative effects in such a scenario could include reductions in productivity and disruptions of supply chains,” the minutes continue.  
  • Yesterday, the U.S. and China started implementation of 25 percent tariffs on $16 billion worth of each other’s goods, according to Reuters.  The negative economic impact of tariffs on each state is the focus of a recent U.S. Chamber of Commerce analysis.  (Politico’s Morning Money, Aug. 23)  
  • Commenting on last week’s Q3 Real Estate Roundtable Economic Sentiment Index, Roundtable President and CEO Jeffrey DeBoer noted, “Looking to future market conditions, industry executives are noting uncertainties regarding the November midterm elections and growing interest rate and international trade concerns.  Policymakers must stay focused on developing pro-growth policies that continue to benefit the overall economy and spur job growth.” 

The FOMC’s next meeting is scheduled for Sept. 25-26.  Former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh (2006 to 2011) will address Roundtable members on Sept. 26 during The Roundtable’s Fall Meeting in Washington, DC.