Tag: Federal Reserve

Fed Cuts Rates Again: Slower Path Ahead Amid Inflation Concerns

Posted on by Abigail Grenadier

The Federal Reserve reduced its benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point Wednesday, bringing it to a target range of 4.25% to 4.50%. While the cut provides some relief to borrowers, the central bank signaled a more cautious pace for future rate reductions as inflationary pressures persist. (Axios, Dec. 18)

Why It Matters

  • The Fed’s decision reflects its effort to balance slowing inflation with a resilient economy.
  • Powell cited recent data, and not just potential policy changes, justified an adjustment to the inflation forecast. Additionally, the labor market has proven more resilient than officials anticipated when they began rate cuts in September. (WSJ, Dec. 18)
  • “We are at or near a point at which it will be appropriate to slow the pace of further adjustments,” Fed chair Jerome Powell told reporters at a press conference on Wednesday, referring to the decision to cut rates. (Press Conference, Dec. 18)
  • The Fed’s latest quarterly projections suggest a slower path to lower rates, with officials anticipating only two rate cuts in 2025, down from four or five predicted in September. (AP News, Dec. 18)
  • Beth Hammack, President of the Cleveland Federal Reserve, dissented from the decision, advocating for steady rates.

Looking Ahead

  • The incoming Trump administration is expected to pursue policies such as deregulation, tax cuts, and a growth-focused agenda.
  • While policies like deregulation and tax cuts could stimulate growth, tariffs and deportations threaten to exacerbate inflationary pressures.
  • Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that some officials have started factoring in “highly conditional estimates” of the potential economic impacts of Trump administration policies into their forecasts.
  • The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) emphasized that further cuts would depend on incoming data, stating it will assess “the extent and timing” of future adjustments. (Summary of Economic Projections, Dec. 18)
  • The Fed now projects inflation to reach 2.5% in 2025, higher than its September forecast of 2.1%, reflecting expectations of slower progress in curbing price increases. (CBS, Dec. 18)
  • For CRE, adaptability remains key as the macroeconomic environment evolves.

The Fed’s next meeting will be January 28-29, 2025, a week after inauguration, and RER’s all-member State of the Industry (SOI) Meeting on January 22-23. 

Second Consecutive Fed Rate Cut Offers Continued Relief to CRE

Posted on by Abigail Grenadier

On Thursday, the Federal Reserve reduced the federal funds rate by 0.25 percentage points, setting the new target range at 4.5% to 4.75%. This marks the second consecutive rate cut, following a 0.5 percentage point reduction in September, as the Fed responds to moderating inflation and evolving economic conditions. (FOMC Statement, Nov. 7)

Fed’s Decision

  • Policy Adjustment for Economic Stability: Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that while inflation has eased to 2.5% as of August 2024, the labor market shows signs of softening: “This further recalibration of our policy stance will help maintain the strength of the economy and the labor market, and will continue to enable further progress on inflation as we move toward a more neutral stance over time.” (Reuters, Nov. 7)
  • Outlook for Future Cuts: The Federal Reserve’s Summary of Economic Projections indicates the possibility of additional rate cuts in the coming months, with the federal funds rate projected to decrease to a range of 3.25% to 3.5% by the end of 2025. (Barron’s, Oct. 9)

Impacts on CRE

  • The Fed’s rate cut arrives at a time when real estate capital markets are under considerable pressure. Industry leaders expect this move will enhance credit capacity and capital formation, support refinancing efforts, and stabilize property values.
  • Credit Availability & Market Sentiment: The positive impact of a continued downward trend in the federal funds rate on CRE industry sentiment is reflected in the Roundtable’s Q4 Sentiment Index. The Q4 results showed a 9-point jump in the overall score of the Index, marking the highest score in three years, since Q4 2021. (Q4 Sentiment Index Survey)
  • Implications for Property Refinancing: Decreasing financing costs could reignite projects that have been delayed due to high interest rates.The rate cut should facilitate refinancing efforts, particularly in sectors like office and multifamily, where challenges from post-pandemic occupancy shifts continue to impact valuations and cash flow.

Looking Ahead

  • Chair Powell emphasized that future rate adjustments will be assessed on a meeting-by-meeting basis, allowing the Federal Reserve to respond flexibly to evolving economic conditions. Powell’s remarks suggest a cautious but adaptable stance, which CRE leaders can look to as they assess financing and investment strategies in a shifting economic landscape. (Wall Street Journal, Nov. 7)
  • The Fed’s final 2024 meeting is scheduled for December 17-18. RER will continue monitoring rate adjustments, advocating for policies that support CRE stability and growth as the rate environment evolves.
  • At FSU’s Real Estate TRENDS conference this week, Roundtable President & CEO Jeffrey DeBoer commented, “The Fed’s recent action to lower interest rates is a promising development for the commercial real estate industry. Reduced borrowing costs may help alleviate current pressures on project financing, foster investment, and ultimately support asset valuations as we enter a more balanced credit environment.”

DeBoer was a featured speaker at the FSU Real Estate Center’s 30th Real Estate TRENDS conference this week, where he shared economic and political insights on the recent elections, on the Fed’s rate cuts, ongoing economic trends in CRE, and the industry’s upcoming political and regulatory landscape. 

The Federal Reserve Cuts Interests Rates

Posted on by Abigail Grenadier

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve reduced interest rates by half a percentage point, marking the
first rate cut in four years. The target rate now stands at 4.75-5%, with important implications for the commercial real estate industry and broader economy. (Federal Reserve Press Release | Washington Post, Sept. 18)

Fed’s Decision           

  • Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that while inflation is easing, falling below 3% from a peak of 9.1% in June 2022, the labor market needs support to prevent further weakening.
  • At a news conference after the meeting, Chair Powell said, “This recalibration of our policy stance will help maintain the strength of the economy and the labor market, and will continue to enable further progress on inflation.” (WSJ, Sept. 18)
  • Fed officials project the target rate will decrease to 3.4% by the end of 2025, indicating four quarter-point cuts over the next year.    

Impacts on CRE    

  • The rate cut comes at a time when the real estate capital markets landscape remains challenging. However, this move could improve credit capacity and capital availability and help stabilize asset values.
  • Prior to the rate cut, The Roundtable’s Q3 2024 Sentiment Index revealed that a majority of respondents expected improvements in the availability of both equity capital (71%) and debt capital (60%) within the next year.
  • Meanwhile, 88% of respondents expressed optimism that asset values will either increase (57%) or remain stable (31%) over the same period. Stay tuned for The Roundtable’s Q4 Sentiment Index, which will provide further insights into how the rate adjustment is impacting real estate markets.

Looking Ahead

  • Chair Powell added that decisions regarding further rate adjustments will be data-driven and made on a meeting-to-meeting basis.
  • Roundtable President & CEO Jeffrey DeBoer commented on the impact for commercial real estate: “The Fed’s rate cuts will bring much-needed relief to the industry. Lower borrowing costs could help address the wave of maturing commercial real estate loans, reignite stalled projects and encourage new investments, helping stabilize property values as we move into a more favorable lending environment.”
  • A mix of lower rates and corporate decisions like Amazon’s office return could help stabilize the office sector still grappling with the post-pandemic shift toward remote work. (Business Insider, Sept. 18)
  • This environment also presents multifamily investors with opportunities to refinance properties, reduce payments, improve cash flow, and capitalize on lower borrowing costs, while exploring new asset classes as valuations stabilize. (JPMorgan, Sept. 19)

The Fed has two more opportunities to adjust interest rates in 2024, with meetings scheduled for November 6-7 and December 17-18.

Fed Holds Rates Steady: Implications for Commercial Real Estate

Posted on by Abigail Grenadier

The Federal Reserve chose to maintain current interest rates at the same level since last July, despite calls from economists and policymakers to implement a cut. (AP News, July 31 | Axios, July 31)

Fed’s Decision

  • Fed chair Jerome Powell emphasized the need for data-driven decisions, indicating that future rate adjustments will hinge on economic indicators. (Washington Post, July 31)
  • During the June meeting, Fed officials released their Summary of Economic Projections report, which showed that policymakers penciled in just one rate cut this year, down from the three initially estimated at the start of the year. (RW, June 14)
  • After the decision, Powell said, “a reduction in our policy rate could be on the table as soon as the next meeting in September.” (Barrons, Aug.1)
  • In June, Senators Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), Jacky Rosen (D-NV), and John Hickenlooper (D-CO) wrote to Powell, urging the Fed to cut the federal funds interest rates from a two-decade-high of 5.5 percent, citing that high interest rates are increasing the costs of housing and insurance, and exacerbating the housing supply crisis. (Letter)
  • In their letter on housing prices, they emphasized that “The country is already facing a severe housing shortage, and the Fed’s refusal to bring down interest rates is exacerbating this shortage and driving higher inflation rates…Lower mortgage rates would encourage more people to sell their homes, which would in turn increase housing supply, decrease prices, ease the costs of renting, and ultimately increase homeownership.”

CRE Markets

RER board member Owen Thomas (BXP)
  • With interest rates unchanged at a 23-year high, the commercial real estate sector faces significant challenges, particularly in financing and investment, as higher rates increase borrowing costs and reduce demand for development.
  • Higher interest rates and the pandemic-induced shift to remote work have left a lasting impact on office demand, prompting landlords to rethink space utilization.
  • In a recent interview with Bloomberg Television, RER board member Owen Thomas (BXP) discussed the transformation of the office market and the need for innovation and adaptability in the face of changing tenant needs and market conditions. (Watch interview)

The Fed’s next meeting is scheduled for September 17-18, 2024.

Roundtable’s William C. Rudin Discusses Public Policies to Strengthen CRE and the Economy

Posted on by Abigail Grenadier
Real Estate Roundtable Chairman Emeritus (2015-2018) William C. Rudin (Co-Executive Chairman, Rudin)

Real Estate Roundtable Chairman Emeritus (2015-2018) William C. Rudin (Co-Executive Chairman, Rudin) discussed commercial real estate conditions on CNBC’s Squawk Box this morning, emphasizing how public policies could help the industry meet significant challenges as it faces a wave of looming maturities in a high-interest rate environment.

Federal Action Needed

  • Rudin noted that unless a property owner has a top-tier asset with a stable long-term lease, liquidity is a major issue. “The federal government and the Federal Reserve have to keep giving the banks flexibility to be able to restructure some of the loans.” (Watch Rudin’s comments)
  • Rudin added, “The federal government should support legislation to help incentivize owners to convert obsolete office buildings to residential—and the federal government should be getting their employees back into the office space.” (Entire Rudin interview)
  • Rudin referenced recent testimony by Roundtable President and CEO Jeffrey DeBoer that addressed these issues during a House subcommitteeon the “Health of the Commercial Real Estate Markets and Removing Regulatory Hurdles to Ensure Continued Strength.” (Roundtable Weekly, May 3 and video of DeBoer’s testimony)

Roundtable Recommendations

Roundtable President and CEO Jeffrey DeBoer
  • The Roundtable’s testimony last week addressed a wide swath of concerns for owners, lenders, and local communities. DeBoer discussed specific issues with House policymakers, including market liquidity, the state of the office sector, remote work, affordable housing, and property conversions. (DeBoer’s oral statement and written testimony)
  • DeBoer also emphasized the need for lawmakers to stimulate the production of affordable housing by converting obsolete buildings into housing, increasing the Low Income Housing Tax Credit volume caps, incentivizing local zoning and permitting reforms, increasing efficiency in the Section 8 housing voucher program, and more. (Roundtable Weekly, May 3)
  • Separately, The Roundtable and a broad real estate coalition submitted a set of specific policy recommendations last week to Congress detailing a host of pending legislative and regulatory actions that would help provide housing to more Americans. (Roundtable Weekly, May 3)

The Roundtable’s all-member Annual Meeting on June 20-21 in Washington, DC will include speakers and policy advisor committee meetings focused on many of these topics.

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Fed Chairman Testifies on Regional Bank Loan Concentrations in CRE, Basel III Proposal Changes

Posted on by Abigail Grenadier
Fed Chair Jerome Powell addressed CRE concerns in an exchange with Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV)

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testified before congressional committees this week about the risks posed by commercial real estate loans to regional banks—and that he expects “broad and material changes” to a regulatory proposal to hike bank capital requirements known as “Basel III.” (The Hill, March 7 and Reuters, March 6)

CRE Concerns & Banking

  • The Senate and House hearings focused on the Fed’s March 1 Monetary Policy Report to Congress. The publication stated, “Credit quality at banks remained strong, although the quality of CRE loans backed by office, retail, and multifamily buildings continued its decline, a result of the lower demand for downtown real estate prompted by the shift toward telework.” The report also noted, “Low levels of transactions in the office sector likely indicated that prices had not yet fully reflected the sector’s weaker fundamentals.”
  • During a March 7 Senate Banking Committee hearing, Fed Chair Powell responded to questions from Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) that he expects some smaller banks with high commercial real estate office concentrations will fail, but that risks posed by these loans are “manageable.” (Watch a video clip of the exchange, above)
  • Similar concerns were raised by policymakers with Powell during a March 6 House Financial Services Committee hearing. The Fed chair addressed why he expects manageable bank losses and added, “We’ve had a secular change in the economy, which has left office demand significantly lower, at least temporarily, and perhaps for a long time. The same is true in some downtown retail (properties) associated with office workers. So it’s a shock to the system.”

Basel III Changes

Senate Banking Committee
  • The committees also heard Powell state that the “Basel III” regulatory proposal, which would significantly increase capital requirements for banks with at least $100 billion in assets, is likely to be overhauled after an enormous private sector response. He commented to the Senate panel, “We do hear the concerns and I do expect that there will be broad and material changes to the proposal.” He told House lawmakers that a rewrite of the proposal is a “very plausible option.” (Fortune and GlobeSt, March 7 | Bloomberg and PolitcoPro, March 6)
  • The Real Estate Roundtable raised industry concerns about the negative impact of the Basel III proposal in a Jan. 12 letter to the Fed and other agencies. The comments outlined how the proposal would decrease real estate credit availability, increase borrowing costs for commercial and multifamily real estate properties, and negatively impact the U.S. economy—and urged federal regulators to withdraw their proposed rulemaking.
  • The New York Times DealBook reported this week that Basel III could crimp lending as some banks struggle with office portfolios and a looming “maturity wall” of $1.5 trillion in CRE loans come due over the next two years. (New York Times, Feb. 7)

Industry Views

  • On March 6, Roundtable Board Member Scott Rechler (Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, RXR) told CNBC’s Squawkbox that high interest rates, price discovery, and the amount of maturing CRE loans have resulted in a “slow-moving train wreck” for regional banks.
  • Rechler, a member of the New York Fed’s Board of Directors, said, “There’s a balance. The longer rates stay higher, there’s more distress. For the industry, there’s enough imbalance right now that some level of rates moderating will help ease this transition.  Capital structures are upside down. They’re going to need to be re-equitized, there’s going to be write-offs. So if you can bring down (interest rates), it can create some transaction activity.” (Squawkbox, March 6)
  • Squawkbox also featured Roundtable Member Marty Burger (Infinity Global Real Estate Partners CEO and former Silverstein Properties CEO) on Feb. 28 to discuss office-to-residential conversion opportunities in the current CRE environment. (CNBC, Feb. 28)

Today, RER’s Immediate Past Chair Debra Cafaro (Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Ventas, Inc.) discussed the CRE market with a focus on the senior housing sector on Bloomberg Markets. “For the commercial real estate sector writ large, those tightening financial conditions are having an impact, particularly in sectors like office, where you have the demand fall off. There will be an impact on the smaller lenders. It is something the system will have to absorb over time with $1 trillion of real estate loans coming due in 2024. It is having an effect. The best elixir for that might be lower rates,” Cafaro said.

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Fed’s Climate Risk Assessment Exercise Will Include Impact on Banks’ CRE Portfolios

Posted on by Trey Jackson

Federal ReserveThe Fed released new details this week about its “pilot climate scenario analysis”—an exploratory exercise that will require six major banks to report by July 31 on how extreme weather event scenarios would impact their operations, investments and real estate portfolios. (Reuters, Jan. 17 and Politico PowerSwitch, Jan. 19)

Risk Scenarios & CRE

  • The pilot exercise aims to learn about climate risk-management practices and challenges of the six largest U.S. banks—and enhance their ability to identify, measure, monitor, and manage climate-related financial risks.
  • The banks will analyze the impact of two risk scenarios on corporate and CRE lending exposures in their portfolios, according to the Fed’s 52-page set of instructions for Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs Group, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo. (Fed news release, Jan. 17)
  • One scenario will include how storms, floods and other “physical risks” could affect residential and commercial real estate portfolios in northeast over a one-year horizon.
  • The second scenario will focus on “transition risks,” which refers to financial stresses caused by regulations and market forces that compel shifts to a lower carbon economy. The banks will analyze impacts over a 10-year horizon, using a scenario based on current policies—and one based on reaching net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. (Yahoo News and Fed Participant Instructions, Jan. 17)

What’s Next

Federal Reserve's 2023 pilot climate scenario analysis

  • The Fed plans to publish a summary of its climate scenario analyses by the end of 2023.

  • Banks will calculate and report to the Fed on credit risk parameters such as probability of default, internal risk rating grade, and loss given default.
  • The Fed’s climate exercises are different from bank stress tests, since these climate risk scenarios are exploratory in nature and have no capital consequences. (Fed Participant Instructions, Jan. 17)
  • The central bank’s exercises come as various federal agencies are taking action on risks that climate change may pose to the economy.
  • The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is expected to issue climate disclosure regulations from by April. The proposed rules would require all registered companies to disclose material financial risks related to climate change, and may include new disclosure requirements for “Scope 3” GHG emissions. The Roundtable submitted extensive comments last year on the SEC’s about the proposal. (Roundtable Weekly, June 10)
  • The Federal Insurance Office within the Treasury Department has also requested information on climate-related financial risks from the insurance sector to identify geographic areas that might lack coverage. (ClimateWire, Jan. 18 and Federal Register, August 31, 2021)

Climate-related regulatory proposals affecting CRE will be among the topics discussed during The Roundtable’s Jan. 24-25 State of the Industry Meeting in Washington, DC.

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Fed Reports U.S. Financial Stability Risks Include Inflation, Asset Valuation Pressures, and Cyber Attacks

Posted on by Trey Jackson

The Federal Reserve in Washington, DC

Near-term risks to the U.S. economy and financial system include inflation, asset valuation pressures and cyber attacks, according to the Federal Reserve’s semiannual Financial Stability Report released this month. (Wall Street Journal, Nov. 4)

Stability Threats

Fed Report Risks Nov 2022

  • “Higher-than-expected interest rates could lead to increased volatility in financial markets, stresses to market liquidity, and declines in asset prices, including prices of both commercial and residential real estate properties,” the central bank states in its report.
  • The report warns that such effects could cause losses at a range of financial intermediaries, reducing their access to capital and raising their funding costs—and pose adverse consequences for asset prices, credit availability, and the economy.
  • Federal Reserve Vice Chair Lael Brainard stated the American financial system has held up through the turbulent developments of the past year. She said, “Household and business indebtedness has remained generally stable, and on aggregate households and businesses have maintained the ability to cover debt servicing, despite rising interest rates.”

Cybersecurity Concerns

Financial Risks Chart - Federal Reserve

  • Respondents to the central bank’s survey on stability threats also noted continuing concerns about the Russian invasion of Ukraine, high oil prices and a potential conflict between China and Taiwan. Cyber attacks pose an additional risk that “could come as retaliation for sanctions imposed on Russia,” according to the Fed’s report.
  • The Roundtable’s Homeland Security Task Force will hold a conference call on Monday, November 28 that will focus on a new Cyber Risk Summary briefing on Commercial Facilities—includes Commercial Real Estate—from the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA). [To register, contact Andy Jabbour of the Real Estate Information and Sharing Network (RE-ISAC)]
  • U.S. financial institutions processed approximately $1.2 billion in ransomware-related payments last year, a nearly 200 percent increase compared to 2020, according to the Treasury Department’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network. (FinCEN report, Nov. 1)

Cybersecurity issues and CRE will be discussed during the next HSTF meeting on Jan. 25, 2023—held in conjunction with The Roundtable’s State of the Industry meeting. (Roundtable Weekly, Oct. 7)

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Roundtable-Supported Fed Liquidity Facility Bolstered CRE Finance During Pandemic

Posted on by Trey Jackson

Fed Building DC

A report published this week by the Dallas Fed concludes that the Federal Reserve’s Term Asset-Backed Loan Facility (TALF) played a key role in bolstering commercial real estate finance during the pandemic. The Federal Reserve added outstanding CMBS as eligible collateral for lending through the TALF in 2020 after urgent requests from business coalitions that included The Real Estate Roundtable. (Roundtable Weekly, April 17, 2020 and Joint Trades letter, March 24, 2020) 

TALF & CRE

  • The report by three authors with the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas’ Research Department states the value of CRE assets at the onset of the pandemic in Feb. 2020 – particularly office towers, retail centers and hotels – suddenly became uncertain. The TALF’s subsequent support of asset-backed securities successfully anchored CMBS prices and helped to steady CRE finance during a tumultuous economic environment.
  • The TALF, previously used during the 2008 financial crisis, was relaunched by the Fed on March 23, 2020 in response to the Covid-19 crisis.
  • A business coalition that included The Roundtable on March 24, 2020 urged the Federal Reserve, Treasury, and Federal Housing Finance Agency to immediately expand the TALF to include non-agency CMBS – including legacy private-label conduit and single-asset single borrower (SASB) assets. The coalition stated the inclusion of private-label assets would stabilize asset prices and shore up the balance sheets of market participants. (Joint Industry letter)
  • On April 9, the Federal Reserve announced the range of TALF-eligible collateral would expand to include triple-A rated tranches of both outstanding (legacy) CMBS, commercial mortgage loans and newly issued collateralized loan obligations. However, the updated term sheet excluded single-asset single borrower (SASB) CMBS and commercial real estate collateralized loan obligations (CRE CLOs). (Federal Reserve news release and Term Sheet)
  • Six real estate industry organizations, including The Roundtable, wrote again to federal regulators on April 14, 2020 about the urgent need to include a wider range of investment grade commercial real estate debt instruments in the Fed’s TALF.
  • The 2020 letter stated, “Commercial and multifamily real estate assets that were perfectly healthy just weeks ago now face massive stress and a wave of payment and covenant defaults.”

  • The Fed on May 12, 2020 broadened the range of leveraged loans that could be used as collateral for the TALF to include new Triple-A rated collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) with leveraged loans. (Fed news release and Term Sheet)

TALF Lessons 

Federal Reserve Building up close

The report published this week concludes the TALF proved especially important in supporting commercial real estate finance. “The TALF program structure provided needed liquidity to investors at the height of the pandemic, but it incentivized borrowers to exit as normal market conditions returned, allowing the program to quickly unwind,” the article states. 

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Federal Reserve’s Robert Kaplan Discusses Economic Outlook with Roundtable; Real Estate Coalition Urges State and Local Officials to Distribute Federal Pandemic Relief Funds

Posted on by Trey Jackson

Kaplan Discussion

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President and CEO Robert S. Kaplan, top left in photo, on April 12 discussed a wide range of monetary and fiscal policy issues with Roundtable Chairman Emeritus Robert S. Taubman (Chairman & CEO, Taubman Centers, Inc.), top right, and Roundtable President and CEO Jeffrey DeBoer, center. (Watch the Kaplan video interview on The Roundtable’s YouTube Channel)

The Fed View

  • The remote discussion focused on the overall economy, inflation trends, affordable housing, commercial real estate, the banking industry and cryptocurrency. Among Mr. Kaplan’s key points:
    • The Dallas Fed forecast for the 2021 U.S. economy’s growth rate is 6.5 percent. 

    • The distribution of COVID-19 vaccines is outpacing the spread of the virus, positively affecting economic growth.  

    • A recovering economy follows improved health conditions, with expected increases in consumer mobility and spending.

    • A significant element driving the economic recovery is “Substantial fiscal policy, much more substantial as a percentage of GDP than we had during the Great Recession.” 
  • Kaplan acknowledged the challenge of balancing central bank monetary policies with fiscal policies enacted by lawmakers. “Anytime there’s fiscal actions or other changes, you have to keep recalibrating that balance. There’s no textbook for this because we haven’t been through a period where we were shut down and we’re now reopening … and there’s no precedent in recent years of fiscal policy that’s this size of GDP,” Kaplan said.  (Video of the discussion)
  • He commented about the yield on U.S. Treasuries, which rose to 1.77% last month. “As we recover, it wouldn’t surprise me for it to drift higher, the 10 year,” Kaplan said, adding, “There’s no shortage of capital” to buy Treasuries. (BGov, April 9)
  • Kaplan also addressed the economic trends monitored by the Dallas Fed, reopening progress and CRE debt exposure to banks.  

Pandemic Relief Funds & Distribution 

treasury-department-building_x475w

  • Significant fiscal policy enacted by Washington lawmakers last month authorized hundreds of billions in pandemic relief under the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 to households, small businesses, and the hospitality industry suffering from the economic impact of COVID-19. (Roundtable Weekly, March 12, 2021)
     
  • The Wall Street Journal reported on April 13 that state and local authorities are overwhelmed with “how to allocate $25 billion in federal rental relief, leaving many tenants and landlords waiting weeks or months for their share.”
     
  • The Roundtable is part of a broad real estate coalition that wrote on April 15 to state, county and municipal officials, urging them to distribute the allocated federal funds as soon as possible. (Coalition letter)
     
  • The coalition letter emphasized the need for elected state and local leaders “to quickly and fully allocate available American Rescue Plan federal funds to provide assistance to renters, consumer-facing small businesses, and impacted industries such as retail, tourism, travel, and hospitality that are having trouble paying rents, mortgages or remaining viable enterprises due to the COVID-19 pandemic.”
     
  • The letter adds, “Such assistance would make a big difference in the lives of thousands upon thousands of COVID-19 affected renters and businesses in their cities, counties, and states – and would also provide stability to the buildings and communities in which they live.” 

The Treasury Department continues to implement pandemic recovery programs, including the State and Local Fiscal Recovery Fund, State Small Business Credit Initiative, and renter and homeowner assistance. Treasury Secretary Yellen  and White House Rescue Plan Coordinator Gene Sperling met yesterday with members of the National Governor’s Association Executive Committee to determine the most efficient and effective way to get federal resources to states. (Treasury Dept readout, April 15) 

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