Tag: Economic Growth & CRE

CRE’s Year of Transformation: Lessons from 2024 and Outlook for 2025

Posted on by Abigail Grenadier

As 2024 comes to a close, the commercial real estate industry has made significant strides in recovery and adaptation.

2024 Roundtable Highlights

  • Over the past year, industry confidence has rebounded. RER’s Q4 Sentiment Index reached 73—a three-year high—and a 12-point jump from Q1 of this year. Despite ongoing challenges, the industry has demonstrated resilience and emerged stronger.
  • RER President & CEO Jeffrey DeBoer spoke about the industry’s 2025 priorities in a recent episode of the Leading Voices in Real Estate podcast, saying, “Real estate cuts across all aspects of our economy, and it’s what makes cities strong. You can’t find a time in history where nations have been strong without healthy cities. Right now, cities are struggling, and we want to help them back.”
  • Looking ahead to 2025, RER remains focused onadvancing policies that support liquidity, innovation, and adaptive reuse to ensure CRE remains a pillar of economic growth and community development.
  • 2025 Policy Priorities Survey: Next week we will be distributing our Policy Issues Survey to all members to gather input on our policy priorities for 2025.

Top Takeaways from 2024

Construction skyline
  • Key drivers of the industry’s growing confidence include easing interest rates and improving financial conditions, which have helped to stabilize asset values and encourage investment activity. By year-end, easing monetary policy and growing investor confidence have started to open up capital availability, with more progress expected in 2025. (Roundtable Weekly, Nov. 8)

  • Office-to-residential conversions saw a banner year, with more than 70 projects completed in 2024. Bolstered by the growing number of state and local incentive programs, 71 million sq. ft. (1.7% of U.S. office inventory) was undergoing or planned for conversion​ as of Q3. Property conversions will continue to see growing momentum in 2025, helping to alleviate elevated vacancy rates. (CBRE, Nov. 11)

  • Loan modifications and extensions, encouraged by regulators and supported by RER, have helped many distressed owners stabilize properties and avoid defaults. While 2024 was a challenging year for the office sector, markets have started to reach an inflection point as capital becomes more available, vacancy rates start to peak, return-to-office momentum grows, and transaction activity picks up. (Roundtable Weekly, Nov. 15)

  • Meanwhile, multifamily and industrial assets—especially data centers—continued to demonstrate strength, benefiting from robust tenant demand and the rapid expansion of AI-driven technologies. (CBRE, Dec. 11)

Prospects for 2025 and Trends to Watch

  • Economic growth: The CRE sector is poised to benefit from moderate economic growth and a more favorable interest rate environment. Investors are cautiously optimistic about improving liquidity and stabilizing valuations, which could unlock much-needed capital. (Commercial Observer, Dec. 10, CBRE, Dec. 11)

  • Office recovery: In San Francisco, office vacancy rates have dropped for the first time in four years—a sign that the office sector is beginning to turn the corner on the pandemic-era economy. Conversion activity is also expected to remain robust, supported by state and local incentives. (S.F. Chronicle, Dec. 16, GlobeSt., Dec. 17)

    • As RER Chair Emeritus William C. Rudin (Co-Executive Chairman, Rudin) recently told Squawk Box, “the demise of office and New York City are greatly exaggerated…there is capital, the CMBS market is back, the banks are coming back to the market,” indicating a welcome trend that could help drive an office revival across America’s downtowns.

  • The data center market will likely see explosive growth driven by artificial intelligence and cloud computing, although power constraints may limit development. Demand for data centers is expected to grow 160% by 2030, driving the buildout of the physical infrastructure needed to support the next digital revolution. (Goldman Sachs, May 14) (McKinsey, Oct. 29)

  • Political and regulatory shifts following the 2024 election—including potential changes to trade, immigration, and fiscal policies with a new Congress and presidential administration—could pose new opportunities or risks in 2025.  Collaborating with and educating policymakers on the impact these policies have on real estate will be crucial to ensuring that public policies support economic growth, job creation, housing affordability, and industry stability.

Heading into 2025, RER will continue advocating for policies that strengthen economic growth and capital availability while addressing industry challenges, including expanded tax credits for affordable housing and property conversions, permitting reform, and other initiatives that support a vibrant and resilient CRE sector.

Second Consecutive Fed Rate Cut Offers Continued Relief to CRE

Posted on by Abigail Grenadier

On Thursday, the Federal Reserve reduced the federal funds rate by 0.25 percentage points, setting the new target range at 4.5% to 4.75%. This marks the second consecutive rate cut, following a 0.5 percentage point reduction in September, as the Fed responds to moderating inflation and evolving economic conditions. (FOMC Statement, Nov. 7)

Fed’s Decision

  • Policy Adjustment for Economic Stability: Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that while inflation has eased to 2.5% as of August 2024, the labor market shows signs of softening: “This further recalibration of our policy stance will help maintain the strength of the economy and the labor market, and will continue to enable further progress on inflation as we move toward a more neutral stance over time.” (Reuters, Nov. 7)
  • Outlook for Future Cuts: The Federal Reserve’s Summary of Economic Projections indicates the possibility of additional rate cuts in the coming months, with the federal funds rate projected to decrease to a range of 3.25% to 3.5% by the end of 2025. (Barron’s, Oct. 9)

Impacts on CRE

  • The Fed’s rate cut arrives at a time when real estate capital markets are under considerable pressure. Industry leaders expect this move will enhance credit capacity and capital formation, support refinancing efforts, and stabilize property values.
  • Credit Availability & Market Sentiment: The positive impact of a continued downward trend in the federal funds rate on CRE industry sentiment is reflected in the Roundtable’s Q4 Sentiment Index. The Q4 results showed a 9-point jump in the overall score of the Index, marking the highest score in three years, since Q4 2021. (Q4 Sentiment Index Survey)
  • Implications for Property Refinancing: Decreasing financing costs could reignite projects that have been delayed due to high interest rates.The rate cut should facilitate refinancing efforts, particularly in sectors like office and multifamily, where challenges from post-pandemic occupancy shifts continue to impact valuations and cash flow.

Looking Ahead

  • Chair Powell emphasized that future rate adjustments will be assessed on a meeting-by-meeting basis, allowing the Federal Reserve to respond flexibly to evolving economic conditions. Powell’s remarks suggest a cautious but adaptable stance, which CRE leaders can look to as they assess financing and investment strategies in a shifting economic landscape. (Wall Street Journal, Nov. 7)
  • The Fed’s final 2024 meeting is scheduled for December 17-18. RER will continue monitoring rate adjustments, advocating for policies that support CRE stability and growth as the rate environment evolves.
  • At FSU’s Real Estate TRENDS conference this week, Roundtable President & CEO Jeffrey DeBoer commented, “The Fed’s recent action to lower interest rates is a promising development for the commercial real estate industry. Reduced borrowing costs may help alleviate current pressures on project financing, foster investment, and ultimately support asset valuations as we enter a more balanced credit environment.”

DeBoer was a featured speaker at the FSU Real Estate Center’s 30th Real Estate TRENDS conference this week, where he shared economic and political insights on the recent elections, on the Fed’s rate cuts, ongoing economic trends in CRE, and the industry’s upcoming political and regulatory landscape. 

Potential CRE Losses Cited as Major Economic Concern in Fed’s Financial Stability Report

Posted on by Abigail Grenadier

Elevated commercial real estate valuations are increasingly viewed as a near-term risk that could stress the U.S. financial system, according to the Federal Reserve’s October 2023 Financial Stability Report. The central bank’s semiannual report also cited inflationary pressures, interest rate increases, and global economic volatility as vulnerabilities—even though survey data was collected before the recent escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. (Fed’s Financial Stability Report, Oct. 2023)

CRE Risk Emphasized

  • Seventy-two percent of all participants in the Fed’s survey cited the potential for large losses on commercial real estate and residential real estate—along with persistent inflation and monetary tightening­—as major risks.
  • The CRE asset valuation problem noted in the Fed Report is influenced by an ongoing lack of price discovery, which creates significant refinancing challenges. GlobeSt reported Oct 24 on the report, noting that “With transactions down and many sellers holding off, waiting for improved pricing while a lot of buyers look for bargains in distress, it’s hard to tell how much properties should be worth.”

WorkPlace Return Pressure

  • The Fed report warns, “If the economy were to slow unexpectedly … investor risk appetite and asset prices might decline, and valuations in the office building sector appear particularly vulnerable given the ongoing uncertainty surrounding post-pandemic norms regarding return to work. A correction in office property valuations accompanied by even a mild recession could result in significant losses for a range of financial institutions with sizable exposures, including some regional and community banks and insurance companies.”

Additional risks that continued to feature prominently in the Fed survey were associated with the reemergence of banking-sector stress, market liquidity strains, and volatility.

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Commercial Real Estate Executives Optimistic Despite Challenging Market Conditions

Posted on by Trey Jackson

August 16, 2023 (WASHINGTON, D.C.) — Industry leaders remain optimistic about future market conditions while acknowledging uncertainty due to interest rate increases, maturing office loans, financing costs, prolonged remote work policies, and labor productivity, according to The Real Estate Roundtable’s Q3 2023 Sentiment Index.

Roundtable President and CEO Jeffrey DeBoer said, “Many maturing loans were financed when base rates were near zero and now need to be refinanced in a challenging environment where rates are much higher, values are lower, and markets are less liquid. Higher rates are also contributing to cyclical pressure on valuations. On top of that, remote work has devastated America’s downtowns and stalled office demand.”

DeBoer added, “The economy has undergone significant transformations due to the pandemic. The realities and challenges we face today requires us to rethink how businesses and people use offices, retail, housing, medical care, and more. Future buildings must accommodate the changes to be successful. The Roundtable will continue to advocate and support measures that boost the availability of credit and enhance the formation of capital in the commercial real estate industry, particularly during these times of market uncertainty.”

The Roundtable’s Economic Sentiment Index—a measure of senior executives’ confidence and expectations about the commercial real estate market environment—is scored on a scale of 1 to 100 by averaging the scores of Current and Future Economic Sentiment Indices.­­­­ Any score over 50 is viewed as positive. ­­­­

The Q3 Sentiment Index topline findings include:

All indices reported increases: The Q3 2023 Real Estate Roundtable Sentiment Index registered an overall score of 46, an increase of five points from the previous quarter. The Current Index registered 33, a six-point increase from Q2 2023, and the Future Index posted a score of 59 points, an increase of four points from the previous quarter.

Disparities between asset classes persist in these challenging market conditions. Hotel and retail markets are largely performing well. Niche asset classes continue to generate interest. On the other hand, office is performing poorly, and rental growth in multifamily and industrial are starting to abate.

Perceptions of declining asset values continue to dominate, with 95% of survey participants reporting that asset values are lower as compared to last year. While Class A properties across all asset classes are trading at competitive prices, managers are still in a “wait and see” mindset for other assets, resulting in lower transaction volumes and an inability to complete accurate valuations.

The availability of capital —both debt and equity—continues to be a pressing topic; 85% and 69% of survey participants, respectively, believe that today’s conditions are more difficult than a year ago. Although managers face a difficult capital raising environment, only 24% and 9% of participants believe debt and equity availability respectively will be worse a year from now as the industry works to creatively solve financing issues.

Data for the Q3 survey was gathered by Chicago-based Ferguson Partners on The Roundtable’s behalf in July. See the full Q3 report.

The Real Estate Roundtable brings together leaders of the nation’s top publicly-held and privately-owned real estate ownership, development, lending and management firms with the leaders of major national real estate trade associations to jointly address key national policy issues relating to real estate and the overall economy.

Public Data in Roundtable’s “Commercial Real Estate By The Numbers: 2023” Shows CRE as Driving Economic Force

Posted on by Trey Jackson

RER report - Commercial Real Estate By The Numbers: 2023

A new Real Estate Roundtable report—Commercial Real Estate By The Numbers: 2023— illustrates CRE’s significant contributions to the economy, statistics on climate and the industry, and the important role of tax policy in CRE investment. (18-page report) 

Statistical CRE Reference 

  • Roundtable President and CEO Jeffrey DeBoer said, “Our compilation of publicly available data shows the vital role commercial real estate plays as a driving force in the American economy. Whether it is real estate’s positive contributions to GDP, the workforce, local tax bases, or Americans’ retirement savings, this report serves as a valuable resource in understanding the important role of CRE in our society.”
  • DeBoer added, “Our report also presents data on CRE’s climate footprint, information on the economic impact of real estate tax proposals, facts on the affordable housing shortage, and statistics on the physical footprint of U.S. commercial real estate. We intend for this reference to be a ‘living document’ that can be updated when new government and private sector statistics become available.” 

Public Data 

GHG Emissions CRE graphic

  • The report’s findings, footnoted throughout the publication, include:
  • The total value of America’s commercial real estate is estimated between $18- $22 trillion.  The value of America’s commercial real estate is nearly 39%-47% of the market capitalization of all U.S. publicly traded companies. The U.S. multifamily housing sector alone is worth $3.8 trillion—worth more than the value of Microsoft, Google, and Amazon combined.
  • The combined economic contributions of new commercial building development and the operations of existing commercial buildings contributed an estimated $2.3T to GDP in 2022.
  • If U.S. commercial real estate was a country it would have the eighth-largest economy in the world as measured by GDP.
  • The commercial real estate industry supports 15.1 million jobs in the U.S.
  • CRE pays $559B in property taxes to local governments annually—comprising 72% of all local tax revenue. Commercial real estate owners pay property taxes that are 1.7X more, on average, than the tax rates paid by homeowners.
  • Pension funds, educational endowments, and charitable foundations have invested $900B in real estate. 87% and 73% of public and private sector pension funds, respectively, contain real estate investments.

  • The commercial and residential sectors represent 13% of total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions. This figure does not include “Scope 3” supply chain emissions beyond the direct control of CRE owners and developers—such as from tenant operations in leased spaces, and carbon embodied in the manufacturing process of cement, steel and other construction materials. (See March 17 Roundtable Weekly, “Reports Confirm Challenges in Scope 3 Reporting”) 

Download the 18-page pdf of The Roundtable’s Commercial Real Estate By The Numbers: 2023. 

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Small-Business Owners Descend on Capitol Hill to Urge SBA Reauthorization, CRE Leaders Address Market Conditions

Posted on by Trey Jackson
Goldman Sachs 10k Businesses

Over 2,500 small-business owners gathered on Capitol Hill this week to meet with more than 400 lawmakers and federal officials to urge reauthorization of the Small Business Administration (SB) for the first time in over 20 years. Small businesses throughout the nation are facing inflationary pressures, supply chain shortages, labor challenges, limited access to capital and a looming possibility of recession. (The Hill, July 20) 

10,000 Small Businesses 

  • The business owners urged lawmakers to modernize the SBA, enact tax credits and provide incentives to help small businesses retain workers and access capital.
  • Sens. Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ) and Tim Scott (R-SC) commented on Tuesday during the summit that the SBA should be simplified and supported reauthorization. (The Hill, July 20)
  • Joe Wall, director of Goldman Sachs’s small-business program, said, “Our goal this week is to generate a lot of momentum so that heading into next year it’s a real priority.” (The Hill, July 20)

Owner Challenges

Goldman Sachs 10,000 Businesses survey

  • A recent survey of the program’s participants shows 93 percent of small-business owners are worried about the US economy experiencing a recession in the next 12 months. Nearly all respondents (97 percent) also say inflationary pressures have increased or remained the same compared with three months ago. Additionally, 88 percent of respondents say it is important for Congress to prioritize the Small Business Administration (SBA), which has not happened in 20 years. (Survey news release, July 13) 
  • Alumni of the 10,000 Small Businesses program collectively represent over $17.3 billion in revenues and employ 245,000 people. 

Industry Views

Marty Burger, far right, interviewed on CNBC's Squawk on the Street

Dr. Linneman commented that inflation is transitory with supply lagging demand due to 23% of the workforce collecting unemployment insurance. He also offers his views on national debt concerns, the Fed and interest rates, and return-to-the-office concerns. (Watch “The Best Hour in CRE” with Economist Peter Linneman, July 21)

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Roundtable Members and Business Leaders Urge NYC Mayor to Address Deteriorating Quality-of-Life Conditions as Part of Economic Recovery and Reopening

Posted on by Trey Jackson

Scott Rechler, Chairman & CEO, RXR Realty LLC

More than 160 business leaders – including 16 Real Estate Roundtable members – yesterday sent a letter to New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio urging him to address crime and deteriorating quality-of-life issues as part of the city’s efforts to ease pandemic restrictions, encourage economic recovery and reopen businesses.  (New York Times and Forbes, Sept. 10)

  • The letter states, “We need to send a strong, consistent message that our employees, customers, clients and visitors will be coming back to a safe and healthy work environment.”  It adds that what must be confronted by city management is a “widespread anxiety over public safety, cleanliness and other quality of life issues that are contributing to deteriorating conditions in commercial districts and neighborhoods.”   (Partnership for New York City letter, Sept. 10)
  • The letter explains that if steps are not taken quickly to address security and other livability conditions, then people will be slow to return to the city and a establish a degree of normalcy.
  • Mayor de Blasio responded on twitter yesterday, stating, “To restore city services and save jobs, we need long term borrowing and a federal stimulus — we need these leaders to join the fight to move the City forward.”
  • One of the signatories of the letter, Roundtable Member Scott Rechler (Chairman & CEO, RXR Realty LLC and Trustee of the 9/11 Memorial Museum) appeared on CNBC’s Squawkbox this morning to discuss the business leaders’ concerns about the city’s economic recovery and reopening.  (Rechler in photo above)
  • “We don’t have a plan to build a brighter, better future for our city like we did post 9-11 and its eerily scary.  While I know we have a crisis and its going to need support from the federal government, that’s not the only solution. We need to manage our city better,” Rechler stated during the Squawkbox interview.

  • An op-ed in the New York Daily News today by Rechler also encourages individuals “to safely fill our city streets, our parks, our stores, our restaurants, and our business districts.”  Rechler calls for a safe return, especially by those “… who stayed home or left the city to protect themselves and their loved ones by slowing the spread of the coronavirus.”
  • New York City’s coronavirus infection rate has been reduced to a low level in recent months after a phased reopening of its economy started in June.  The infection rate in the city has been below 1% for more than one month, due to strict emergency regulations.  (Wall Street Journal, Sept. 11 and New York Gov. Cuomo’s website, Sept. 9)

Rechler’s op-ed adds, “Every lawyer, software engineer and banker working in New York’s office buildings supports five additional service jobs in retail, restaurants and small businesses, but this partnership, hundreds of thousands of jobs and livelihoods, falls apart if we all stay home.”

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CRE Execs Report Solid Q4 Market Fundamentals Ease Concerns Over Economic Uncertainty and Geopolitics

Posted on by Trey Jackson

Jeffrey DeBoer, President and CEO, The Real Estate Roundtable

Commercial real estate executives report solid fundamentals are countering concerns about economic uncertainty and geopolitics, maintaining an optimistic outlook for market conditions in 2020, according to The Real Estate Roundtable’s 2019 Q4 Economic Sentiment Index released today. 

  • The Q4 Sentiment Index dropped one point from the previous quarter to register a score of 49, which shows a positive view regarding the U.S. economy and real estate market conditions. The Overall Economic Sentiment Index is scored on a scale of 1 to 100 by averaging Current and Future Indices and a score of approximately 50 is viewed as positive.
  • For Q4, the Current-Conditions Index of 53 remains the same as the previous quarter. The Q4 Future-Conditions Index of 45 decreased three points from Q3.  The Overall Sentiment Index has registered between 49 and 77 every quarter since Q3 2009 – except for Q1 2019 (45 score) and Q4 2016 (48 score).
  • “Our Q4 Sentiment Index shows that macro real estate markets remain fundamentally sound and reasonably leveraged, with balanced supply and demand,” said Real Estate Roundtable President and CEO Jeffrey DeBoer (above).  “The markets continue to benefit from business and consumer spending, encouraged by low unemployment, rising wages and low energy prices.”

The report’s Topline Findings include:

  • The Real Estate Roundtable Q4 2019 Economic Sentiment Index registered a score of 49 – a one-point decrease from the previous quarter. Survey participants remain confident in stable market fundamentals, but are concerned about recession talk, troubled international markets and politics.  
  • Sixty-two percent of Q4 survey respondents believe markets conditions will be about the same or better in 2020.  Approximately 82% of respondents see today’s market as about the same or better compared to the same time last year. 
     
  • More than 65% of respondents anticipate asset values to maintain their current level or be somewhat higher going into 2020.  Additionally, half also suggested asset values increased over the past year.  Respondents consistently suggested the number of buyers for assets was decreasing, a factor which is creating challenging selling and buying circumstances. 
     
  • Most respondents feel debt and equity capital are readily available for quality investments.  The availability of capital and refinancing opportunities are offsetting a decline in buyers/investors in some markets.

DeBoer added, “Real estate leaders cautiously await the outcome of several unpredictable influences on the global and domestic economies.  Despite the uncertainty, U.S. real estate markets have shown consistent stability, which positions them well to withstand potential economic gyrations in the future.”  He also said, “Washington policymakers need to keep their focus on policies that encourage long-term job creation and support economic growth in local communities.”

Data for the Q4 survey was gathered in October by Chicago-based FPL Associates on The Roundtable’s behalf.  For the full survey report, visit www.rer.org/q4-2019-sentiment-index-report

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