Incoming Trump Administration Prepares Energy Policy Shift

This week’s confirmation hearings shed light on the Trump Administration’s ambitious energy agenda, including plans to expand American energy production, streamline project approvals, and explore a carbon tariff on imports. (PoliticoPro, Jan. 16)

“All of the Above” Energy Policy

  • President-elect Trump has prioritized “drill, baby, drill” as a cornerstone of his agenda, emphasizing energy independence and dominance through increased domestic oil and gas production.
  • Chris Wright, the Energy Secretary nominee, told the Senate Energy Committee on Wednesday that he would use the role to “unleash American energy at home and abroad” if confirmed. (Reuters, Jan. 15)
  • Wright said in his opening statement that he would focus on three objectives: removing barriers for energy projects, accelerating innovation by the national laboratories, and advancing U.S. energy domestically and abroad. (Roll Call, Jan. 16)
  • North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum, the Interior Secretary nominee, said at his Thursday confirmation hearing that the U.S. must expand domestic energy production and electricity generation to meet growing demand, particularly from AI technologies. (Politico, Jan. 16 | Roll Call, Jan. 16 )
  • Burgum supports an “all-of-the-above” approach that would utilize renewables and fossil fuels.  Trump has also tapped Burgum to lead a White House-based energy council that would coordinate policy across the federal government. (Politico, Jan. 9)
  • Former Representative Lee Zeldin, the nominee for EPA Administrator, said at his Thursday hearing he would work in a bipartisan manner with career staff to fulfill the agency’s mission. (PoliticoPro, Jan. 16 | The Hill, Jan. 16)
  • Zeldin vowed to address climate change without “suffocating the economy,” and committed to private sector collaboration to “promote common sense, smart regulation.” (NBC News, Jan. 16 | Washington Post, Jan. 16)

Carbon Tariff Proposal

  • During his Thursday confirmation hearing, Treasury Secretary nominee Scott Bessent (see Policy Landscape story above) expressed interest in a carbon tariff on imports, suggesting it could be part of a broader Trump administration strategy to raise revenue, counter unfair trade practices, and boost negotiating leverage.
  • Bessent indicated the potential for such measures to align with the administration’s broader trade and economic goals. (PoliticoPro, Jan. 16)
  • Recently, Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) proposed a bill, the “Foreign Pollution Fee Act” that would impose a “foreign pollution fee” on imported carbon-intensive products – including construction materials. (E&E News, Dec. 12)
  • The bill’s co-sponsor, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), spoke about the bill at Bessent’s hearing. “If you want to clean up the environment, a carbon fee seems to be a good way to do it, to punish China and India for bad carbon practices,” Graham said. (Politico, Jan. 16)
  • The Roundtable submitted comments today on the Foreign Pollution Fee Act. The letter raises concerns regarding the impact of a carbon tariff on affordable housing constriction, rebuilding after natural disasters, and technical issues on calculating “indirect emissions” associated with product manufacturing.

Other Energy News This Week

  • President Biden issues executive order to advance U.S. artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure: President Biden issued an executive order directing agencies to lease federal land for “gigawatt-scale” to support new data center construction. (AP News, WH Press Release, Jan. 14)
  • 179D energy efficiency tax deduction: The Energy Department (DOE) launched the 179D Portal, offering tools for new commercial construction and retrofits to estimate energy savings and qualify for potential federal tax incentives. (DOE Press Release, Jan. 14)
  • California wild fires raise electricity costs: The Los Angeles wildfires, which caused over $250 billion in damages and severely impacted the region’s electrical infrastructure, have driven a nearly 50% increase in California’s residential electricity rates since 2019, raising concerns about the fairness of passing these wildfire-related costs onto customers. (Politico, Jan. 15)
  • Maryland building emissions standards lawsuit: A coalition of trade organizations filed a federal lawsuit arguing that the Maryland Building Energy Performance Standards (BEPS) is illegal because it is “pre-empted” due to its conflict with federal laws. The Maryland law mandates large buildings to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20% within five years and achieve net-zero emissions by 2040. The lawsuit claims the rules exacerbate the housing crisis, strain the power grid, and violate consumer choice. (Baltimore Banner, Jan. 14 | (Baltimore Sun, Jan. 16)

Electric Grid Strain: CRE’s Role in Addressing Energy Challenges

Demands for artificial intelligence (AI), advanced manufacturing, electric vehicles, and building electrification are straining the U.S. electric grid—creating challenges and opportunities for commercial real estate (CRE). (Deloitte, Dec. 9)

Why it Matters

  • The grid is at a “tipping point.” Heightened demands for power by consumers, businesses, and government are posing significant risks to energy reliability and driving data center construction to meet the needs. (PoliticoPro, Dec. 18)
  • The organization authorized by Congress to assess grid capacity highlighted last month the “critical reliability challenges” needed to satisfy “escalating energy growth,” as retiring power plants age-out of service. The report also noted the need to accelerate construction of transmission projects to bring electricity to the nation’s cities and suburbs. (N. American Electric Reliability Corp., 2024 Assessment.)
  • President Joe Biden is expected to issue an executive order as soon as today to boost the construction of data centers on federal land to support AI, while also aiming to increase geothermal and nuclear energy production to power them. (PoliticoPro, Jan. 9)
  • Data center construction is surging to meet demand with site selection largely driven by power availability. Microsoft and Meta recently announced billions of data center investments. (E&E News, Jan. 10 | CBRE, Aug. 2024)
  • The Department of Energy (DOE) estimates data centers could consume up to 12% of U.S. electricity by 2028, largely attributed to demand from cloud and AI providers. (DOE News Release, Dec. 20)
  • As The Roundtable’s Policy Guide on building performance standards states, the transition to a digital economy raises serious concerns about electricity availability. “AI could soon need as much electricity as an entire country” as “[v]ast swaths of the U.S. are at risk of running short of power.” (Roundtable Weekly, Oct. 11)

Bipartisan House Report on AI

  • Policymakers and industry leaders are focusing more than ever on solutions to expand power generation and modernize the grid.
  • The Bipartisan House Task Force on AI released a report last month finding that AI’s critical role in U.S. economic and national security interests hinges on a robust power grid. (House AI Report, December 2024).
  • Recommendations from the Bipartisan House AI Task Force report include:
    • Develop metrics and standards to measure energy use and efficiency.
    • Allocate infrastructure costs to customers who benefit most from upgrades.
    • Use AI to improve energy infrastructure, production, and efficiency.

EPA’s Energy Data Campaign

  • Looking ahead, utilities, policymakers, and data center operators must collaborate to balance priorities such as grid upgrades, renewable energy procurement, water resource management, and equitable cost allocation. (Deloitte, Dec. 9)
  • This week, EPA continued its building energy data campaign to assist real estate owners in coordinating with utilities to access tenant space energy data.
  • To aid both owners, operators, and utility representatives in understanding this issue and potential solutions, EPA has prepared a number of energy data resources that can be found here.

A resilient electric grid is critical to sustaining economic growth. These issues will be featured in discussions at The Roundtable’s State on the Industry meeting on Jan. 22-23.

CRE’s Year of Transformation: Lessons from 2024 and Outlook for 2025

As 2024 comes to a close, the commercial real estate industry has made significant strides in recovery and adaptation.

2024 Roundtable Highlights

  • Over the past year, industry confidence has rebounded. RER’s Q4 Sentiment Index reached 73—a three-year high—and a 12-point jump from Q1 of this year. Despite ongoing challenges, the industry has demonstrated resilience and emerged stronger.
  • RER President & CEO Jeffrey DeBoer spoke about the industry’s 2025 priorities in a recent episode of the Leading Voices in Real Estate podcast, saying, “Real estate cuts across all aspects of our economy, and it’s what makes cities strong. You can’t find a time in history where nations have been strong without healthy cities. Right now, cities are struggling, and we want to help them back.”
  • Looking ahead to 2025, RER remains focused onadvancing policies that support liquidity, innovation, and adaptive reuse to ensure CRE remains a pillar of economic growth and community development.
  • 2025 Policy Priorities Survey: Next week we will be distributing our Policy Issues Survey to all members to gather input on our policy priorities for 2025.

Top Takeaways from 2024

Construction skyline
  • Key drivers of the industry’s growing confidence include easing interest rates and improving financial conditions, which have helped to stabilize asset values and encourage investment activity. By year-end, easing monetary policy and growing investor confidence have started to open up capital availability, with more progress expected in 2025. (Roundtable Weekly, Nov. 8)

  • Office-to-residential conversions saw a banner year, with more than 70 projects completed in 2024. Bolstered by the growing number of state and local incentive programs, 71 million sq. ft. (1.7% of U.S. office inventory) was undergoing or planned for conversion​ as of Q3. Property conversions will continue to see growing momentum in 2025, helping to alleviate elevated vacancy rates. (CBRE, Nov. 11)

  • Loan modifications and extensions, encouraged by regulators and supported by RER, have helped many distressed owners stabilize properties and avoid defaults. While 2024 was a challenging year for the office sector, markets have started to reach an inflection point as capital becomes more available, vacancy rates start to peak, return-to-office momentum grows, and transaction activity picks up. (Roundtable Weekly, Nov. 15)

  • Meanwhile, multifamily and industrial assets—especially data centers—continued to demonstrate strength, benefiting from robust tenant demand and the rapid expansion of AI-driven technologies. (CBRE, Dec. 11)

Prospects for 2025 and Trends to Watch

  • Economic growth: The CRE sector is poised to benefit from moderate economic growth and a more favorable interest rate environment. Investors are cautiously optimistic about improving liquidity and stabilizing valuations, which could unlock much-needed capital. (Commercial Observer, Dec. 10, CBRE, Dec. 11)

  • Office recovery: In San Francisco, office vacancy rates have dropped for the first time in four years—a sign that the office sector is beginning to turn the corner on the pandemic-era economy. Conversion activity is also expected to remain robust, supported by state and local incentives. (S.F. Chronicle, Dec. 16, GlobeSt., Dec. 17)

    • As RER Chair Emeritus William C. Rudin (Co-Executive Chairman, Rudin) recently told Squawk Box, “the demise of office and New York City are greatly exaggerated…there is capital, the CMBS market is back, the banks are coming back to the market,” indicating a welcome trend that could help drive an office revival across America’s downtowns.

  • The data center market will likely see explosive growth driven by artificial intelligence and cloud computing, although power constraints may limit development. Demand for data centers is expected to grow 160% by 2030, driving the buildout of the physical infrastructure needed to support the next digital revolution. (Goldman Sachs, May 14) (McKinsey, Oct. 29)

  • Political and regulatory shifts following the 2024 election—including potential changes to trade, immigration, and fiscal policies with a new Congress and presidential administration—could pose new opportunities or risks in 2025.  Collaborating with and educating policymakers on the impact these policies have on real estate will be crucial to ensuring that public policies support economic growth, job creation, housing affordability, and industry stability.

Heading into 2025, RER will continue advocating for policies that strengthen economic growth and capital availability while addressing industry challenges, including expanded tax credits for affordable housing and property conversions, permitting reform, and other initiatives that support a vibrant and resilient CRE sector.