A new report released this month warns that proposed tax increases on carried interest could significantly harm the U.S. economy, increase the federal deficit, and jeopardize millions of jobs.

Report Findings

• The comprehensive new report by Dr. Charles Swenson, Professor of Accounting at the University of Southern California Marshall School of Business, Economic Impact on the Private Funds and Real Estate Industries Due to Potential Increases in Tax on Carried Interest, estimates what will happen if lawmakers recharacterize all carried interest income as ordinary income.   

• “This report is a testament to the importance of backing up policy recommendations with sound calculations and analysis before making decisions that would affect so many American workers, small businesses, and industries,” said Dr. Swenson. (One-Pager)

• The report warns that increasing taxes on carried interest would result in:

• Higher Federal Deficit: Raising taxes on carried interest could cost the U.S. government up to $70 billion in lost revenue over the next decade.

• Job Losses: Real estate, venture capital and private equity partnerships support an estimated 32 million American jobs. The private sector could lose an estimated 1.23 million jobs as businesses lose access to a critical tool for attracting capital and securing investment.

• Global Competitive Disadvantage: The proposed tax increase would raise the U.S. tax rate on many businesses and investments to 40.8% – higher than China, Canada, and numerous European countries, discouraging foreign and domestic investment.

• Worsening Housing Crisis: Higher taxes could exacerbate the current housing shortage, stalling construction at a critical time when the U.S. needs 5.5 million new units to meet demand.

• Declining Innovation: Removing the tax incentive alignment between entrepreneurs and investors would shift investments away from high-risk opportunities, particularly in high-tech and biotechnology industries.

• Lost Retirement Earnings: Public pension funds supporting over 34 million workers could lose up to $520 million annually as they're forced into lower-yielding investments.

Industry Response

• Industry leaders reiterated the report’s findings and warned of the harmful economic consequences of increasing taxes on productive, job-supporting investment. (Press Release, April 8)

• Since carried interest and its tax treatment first emerged as a controversial political issue in 2007, RER has consistently opposed legislative proposals to tax all carried interest at ordinary income rates. (Axios, March 24 | NYT, March 8)

• President Trump revived calls to close the “carried interest tax deduction loophole” earlier this year during meetings with Republican lawmakers, framing it as a potential revenue offset. While he hasn’t mentioned it publicly in recent weeks, the issue remains part of broader GOP tax discussions. (Politico, April 25)

• In March, a coalition of 17 national real estate organizations wrote to congressional leadership urging preservation of current law on carried interest, highlighting that taxing all carried interest as ordinary income would raise taxes on 2.2 million real estate partnerships and nearly 9.7 million partners, potentially stalling new housing, infrastructure, and redevelopment projects. (RW, March 28)

• Jeffrey DeBoer, President and CEO of RER: “The new study by Professor Swenson is further evidence that recharacterizing this long term ‘carried interest’ capital gain as ordinary income would penalize entrepreneurs, slow housing production, and reduce investment in long-neglected neighborhoods. Construction costs and the risks of real estate development continue to rise and financing remains challenging.  Now is not the time to raise taxes on U.S. real estate," DeBoer said. (Press Release, April 8)

With the House having approved a $5.3 trillion budget resolution, tax legislation is now on the horizon. This timely study provides critical data on the potential consequences of changing carried interest tax treatment.

Congress will return to Washington next week with an ambitious agenda—kicking off markups for a sweeping reconciliation package that would enact the President’s legislative agenda and could shape the fiscal and tax landscape for years to come. (CBS, April 24)

Markup Schedule

• The Judiciary, Homeland Security, and Armed Services Committees are expected to lead the process starting the week of April 28. These panels have jurisdiction over spending on border security and defense and are tasked with allocating $110 billion, $90 billion, and $100 billion respectively under the House budget resolution. (Politico, April 17)

• The Energy and Commerce Committee is targeting May 7 for its markup. The committee is required to find $880 billion in savings, which may involve changes to Medicaid, electric vehicle mandates, and other policy areas. (Punchbowl News, April 23)

• The Financial Services Committee is set to vote on April 30 on its share of the reconciliation package, which must include a minimum of $1 billion in cuts over 10 years. (PoliticoPro, April 23)

• Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) and Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) have expressed a shared goal of advancing the reconciliation package by Memorial Day.

• “We are pushing it very aggressively on schedule, as you said, to get it done by Memorial Day,” Johnson said this week, citing the need to tame stock market instability.

• Johnson also said he and House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA) had a conference call with the 11 House GOP committee chairs on Wednesday to discuss the next steps for Trump’s “big beautiful bill.” (PoliticoPro, April 23)

Tax Policy

• Tax legislation will be a cornerstone of the reconciliation package as lawmakers prepare to extend the major tax provisions from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) that are scheduled to expire at the end of 2025. (PoliticoPro, April 14)

• The House Ways and Means Committee is eyeing a potential two-day markup session on May 12 and 13. (PoliticoPro, April 24)

• House GOP leaders, including Ways and Means Committee Chair Jason Smith (R-MO), are scheduled to meet Wednesday with blue-state Republicans to discuss the personal SALT deduction cap.

• The meeting marks a key moment in resolving one of the most politically sensitive issues in the tax bill. While most Republicans support maintaining the current $10,000 cap, several GOP lawmakers from high-tax states have threatened to oppose the package unless the cap is raised to at least $25,000. (Punchbowl News, April 25)

• As policymakers prepare the first major tax bill since 2017, The Roundtable (RER) and the real estate industry are focusing heavily on preserving the full deductibility of business-related property taxes. The deductibility of business-related state and local income and property taxes has emerged as a central issue as lawmakers look for ways to pay for new tax provisions.

• A cap on the deductibility of property taxes paid by U.S. businesses could have devastating consequences for commercial real estate owners, developers, and investors nationwide, reversing the benefits of the 2017 tax bill and raising effective tax rates on real estate to 1970s-era levels near 50%.  (RW, April 11) 

• State and local property taxes represent 40% of the operating costs of U.S. commercial real estate, a greater expense than utilities, maintenance, and insurance costs combined.  RER urges its members to weigh in with Members of Congress against restrictions on deducting state and local property taxes.

• Other important issues for real estate in the current tax discussions include: tax parity for pass-through businesses, potential tax increases on carried interest, preservation of the opportunity zone tax incentives, and a possible expansion of the low-income housing tax credit.  (Bloomberg, April 21)

Potential Challenges Ahead

• The reconciliation effort faces serious political hurdles, particularly regarding spending cuts and revenue-raising provisions.

• House Republicans have a narrow majority, and leadership must secure support from nearly every member of their caucus. Proposed cuts to Medicaid and SNAP could generate pushback from moderate Republicans, while debates over “payfors” continue to divide lawmakers.

• The House and Senate are also operating under different reconciliation instructions, which could further complicate aligning final legislation.

IRA & Energy Tax Credits

• Since budget negotiations began, Republican leadership has suggested repealing some or all of the Inflation Reduction Act's (IRA) clean energy tax credits as a way to reduce federal spending. However, several GOP lawmakers have advocated preserving specific provisions that benefit their constituents. (Reuters, April 21)

• In a recent letter to Leader Thune, four Senate Republicans urged a more selective approach to scaling back the IRA’s tax provisions. Additionally, 21 House Republicans expressed their support for maintaining energy incentives that benefit both traditional and renewable energy sectors in a March letter to House Ways and Means Chair Jason Smith (R-MO). (Newsweek, April 21)

RER at the Forefront

• This week, RER President and CEO Jeffrey DeBoer appeared on the special webcast  “Real Recession Risk or Temporary Distraction?” hosted by Marcus & Millichap President and CEO Hessam Nadji. DeBoer joined Moody’s Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi to discuss recession risks, inflation, and the broader impact of trade and tax policy in Washington. (Watch)

• DeBoer was also a keynote speaker at the University of Wisconsin-Madison’s James A. Graaskamp Center Spring Board Conference earlier this month, where he shared his insights on how the Trump administration’s economic agenda, regulatory changes, tariffs, and tax policy are impacting commercial real estate.

RER will continue to monitor developments closely as Congress advances a package that could have far-reaching implications for commercial real estate, business taxation, and economic growth.