House Expected to Vote May 22 on Dodd-Frank Reform Bill That Include HVCRE Revisions

The House of Representatives is expected next week to pass a bipartisan package of revisions to the Dodd-Frank Act of 2010 and send it to President Trump for his signature. The House bill (S. 2155), which passed the Senate (67-31) in March, includes significant Roundtable-supported clarifications to the Basel III High Volatility Commercial Real Estate (HVCRE) Rule – a top industry priority that will benefit CRE acquisition, development and construction (ADC) lending and promote economic growth.

The House is expected to vote on S. 2155 – the Economic Growth, Regulatory Relief, and Consumer Protection Act – as early as Tuesday, May 22 – separate financial deregulation legislation championed by House Financial Services Chairman Jeb Hensarling (R-TX) is expected to soon follow.

What it Means for CRE 
 
The HVCRE measure contains important clarifications and reforms to the Basel III High Volatility Commercial Real Estate (HVCRE) Rule, which has created needless confusion and increased borrowing costs in the industry. 

  • Under the new measure, commercial borrowers will be able to satisfy the 15% equity requirement through the appreciated value of contributed land/property – versus the cost basis under the current rule. The measure also clarifies that loans made to acquire existing property with rental income and/or do cosmetic upgrades and other improvements don’t trigger the HVCRE capital penalty. (Roundtable WeeklyMay 4 and May 11)
  • The Roundtable and twelve other real estate organizations on March 2, 2018 sent a comment letter detailing the industry’s policy positions and urging inclusion of the HVCRE measure within the broader Dodd-Frank reform package (S. 2155).

HVCRE reform has been a top policy priority of The Real Estate Roundtable and its industry coalition partners, who have submitted numerous policy comment letters to policymakers since 2015. The Roundtable’s HVCRE Working Group has also played a key role in advancing these welcome reforms.

House Will Vote on Dodd-Frank Reform and HVCRE Before Memorial Day

House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) yesterday said the House will vote on the Senate’s Dodd-Frank reform bill (S. 2155),  before Memorial Day.  S. 2155 includes a measure to reform the Basel III High Volatility Commercial Real Estate (HVCRE) Rule – a top Roundtable priority.  (Roundtable Weekly, May 4)

House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) said the House will vote on the Senate’s Dodd-Frank reform bill (  S. 2155  ),  before Memorial Day.

  • Ryan: GOP has deal on bill easing Dodd-FrankThe Hill (May 8) – House Speaker Paul Ryan (Wisconsin) on Tuesday said the House will hold a vote on the Senate Dodd-Frank reform bill in exchange for the Senate taking up a separate set of financial reform bills  supported by House Financial Services Committee Chairman Jeb Hensarling (R-TX) Texas).
  • House Speaker Ryan, American Banker (May 8) – “I had a good meeting with [Senate Majority Mitch McConnell] over the break on this and so we’ve got an agreement to be moving different pieces of legislation.” 
  • Bill to Roll Back Post-Financial-Crisis Banking Rules Gets Clear Path to PassageWashington Post, May 8 –- As the sponsor of more ambitious Dodd-Frank reforms approved by the House last year, Hensarling said he was confident that the new approach to separate the legislative effort into two bills would “create regulatory policy that will help us achieve sustained 3% economic growth.”

    The Roundtable and 12 other real estate organizations on March 2, 2018 sent a  comment letter  urging all members of the Senate Banking Committee to enact the HVCRE measure by including the measure in the broader Dodd-Frank reform package (S. 2155).

HVCRE Reform Measure Included  

  • (Roundtable Weekly, Jan. 12) – The Senate bill would clarify which types of loans should be classified as High Volatility Commercial Real Estate Loans (HVCRE) to ensure they do not impede credit capacity or economic activity, while still promoting economically responsible commercial real estate lending.  
  • GlobeSt.com, (March 19) – “The HVCRE rule, promulgated by Basel III, went into effect in 2016. It established a new risk-weight category requiring banks to hold more capital – 150% or one and half times as much – for such loans. The result has been a pull back on construction lending among other types of bank finance.” 
  • Real Estate Industry Comment Letter, (March 2) – The Roundtable and twelve other real estate organizations on March 2, 2018 sent a comment letter urging all members of the Senate Banking Committee to enact the HVCRE measure by including it in the broader Dodd-Frank reform package (S. 2155).

Since 2015, The Roundtable’s HVCRE Working Group and industry coalition partners have played a key role in advancing specific reforms to the HVCRE Rule.  During next month’s Real Estate Roundtable Annual Meeting, HVCRE will be a focus of discussion, with more specific details offered during the Real Estate Capital Policy Advisory Committee (RECPAC) meeting on June 14.

Coalition To Insure Against Terrorism (CIAT) Submits Comments to Treasury on Effectiveness of Terrorism Risk Insurance Act(TRIP)

The Roundtable and its partners in the Coalition to Insure Against Terrorism (CIAT), submitted  detailed comments Monday on the overall effectiveness of the Terrorism Risk Insurance Program (TRIP) to the U.S. Department of Treasury’s Federal Insurance Office (FIO).

This week’s   comments   support TRIP as a “tremendous success” yet provide recommendations on three primary aspects of the program: Standalone terrorism insurance; Nuclear, Biological, Chemical or Radiological (NBCR) availability; and Cyber terrorism.

The Terrorism Risk Insurance Program Reauthorization Act of 2015 (TRIPRA) requires  Treasury to issue proposed rules to implement changes to TRIP, which is set to expire on Dec. 31, 2020 (Roundtable Weekly – Jan. 16, 2015) 

As FIO works on preparing its 2018 report on TRIP’s effectiveness, the coalition’s comment letter presents views from policyholders and risk managers – and supplement earlier remarks submitted by CIAT in 2016 (Roundtable Weekly, June 3, 2016). 

This week’s comments support TRIP as a “tremendous success” yet provide recommendations on three primary aspects of the program: Standalone terrorism insurance; Nuclear, Biological, Chemical or Radiological (NBCR) availability; and Cyber terrorism. 

The CIAT comments note there has been no evidence that private markets can develop adequate terrorism risk capacity without some type of federal participation.  The letter also notes that “in the wake of a major terrorist attack, (the program) ensures that a significant portion of the costs of recovery would be borne by the private sector.”  

The comments also include a suggestion that FIO should consider making the program permanent, stating that most other countries insurance programs are “of continuous duration, and it would benefit market stability to make TRIP permanent as well.” 

How other nation’s implement terrorism risk insurance programs was the focus of a discussion with Julian Enoizi, chief executive of Pool-Re during last week’s Spring Roundtable Meeting in Washington, DC. 

Additionally, Marsh  recently released its 2018 Terrorism Risk Insurance Report, which presents data on purchasing and pricing trends in the terrorism insurance marketplace. The report finds that the highest terrorism insurance take-up rates by industry in 2017 were real estate companies, education entities, health care organizations and financial institutions.  It also explores how the terrorism insurance market continues to innovate and respond to the needs of global organizations in light of an evolving risk landscape.  (BusinessInsurance, April 20, 2018) 

With TRIP set to sunset at the end of 2020, The Roundtable has formed a Terrorism Risk Insurance Working Group to explore potential options in advance of the reauthorization debate that is expected to begin in earnest next year.  The Working Group’s goal is to develop a strategy for a permanent, or long-term, national terrorism insurance program that would enable policyholders to secure the terrorism risk coverage they need without facing periodic renewals by the government.

Top Democrat on House Ways & Means Committee Requests Treasury Guidance on New Pass-Through Deduction

Clarifying guidance on the new pass-through deduction enacted in last year’s tax overhaul bill is needed “as soon as possible,” according to a letter sent this week by House Ways and Means Committee Ranking Member Richard Neal (D-MA) to Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Acting Internal Revenue Service Commissioner David Kautter.  (Neal Letter, May 1)

  Clarifying guidance on the new pass-through deduction enacted in last year’s tax overhaul bill is needed “as soon as possible,” according to a letter sent this week by House Ways and Means Committee Ranking Member Richard Neal (D-MA) to Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Acting Internal Revenue Service Commissioner David Kautter.  (Neal Letter, May 1)

The new tax relief for pass-through businesses is a core element of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act signed by President Trump in December – and is vital to ensure that the legislation treats all types of businesses, including real estate, fairly and equitably.  (Roundtable Weekly, Dec. 22, 2017) 

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act reduced the top tax rate on corporations by 40 percent. The new 20 percent pass-through deduction (section 199A) can lower the top tax rate on qualifying pass-through business income to 29.6 percent. Such income was previously taxed at a top rate of 39.6 percent.  

In January, The Roundtable wrote to Treasury Secretary Mnuchin  offering several suggestions designed to maximize the economic impact of the pass-through deduction and avoid unnecessary disruptions to business activity.  [Roundtable Letter, Jan. 18]. 

Specifically, the letter urged Treasury to issue guidance: 

  • clarifying that until final regulations are issued, all qualified trade or business activities may be aggregated at the partner level for purposes of the provision’s wage and asset tests;
  • allowing businesses to qualify for the pass-through deduction with respect to permissible services, even if the business also engages in service activities that are excluded from the deduction (assuming the permissible services are provided on an arm’s length basis); 
  • clarifying that the transfer of real estate in a like-kind exchange does not adversely affect a taxpayer’s pass-through deduction;
  • confirming that the benefit of the deduction extends to shareholders invested in REITs through a mutual fund;
  • construing the “principal asset” test in a manner that does not treat the skill or reputation of a firm’s employees as an “asset” of the business, unless they are reflected in an amortizable tax asset (such as workforce in place); and 
  • confirming that, in the context of the pass-through deduction, the reasonable compensation rules apply exclusively to S corporations.

    The new tax law, enacted last December, was the subject of a Senate Finance Committee hearing last week, where Senate Democrats focused on the pass-through deduction.  (  SFC hearing  Early Impressions of the New Tax Law – April 24)

In Neal’s letter sent this week, the top democrat on the tax-writing House Ways and Means Committee cites taxpayer (and tax advisors) confusion over the deduction, stating, “Without computational and definitional guidance to assist taxpayers in determining whether, and to what extent, they may quality for the pass-through deduction, it is  difficult for them to properly calculate their quarterly estimated tax payments.”  (Neal Letter, May 1)

Neal adds, “As a result, taxpayers are left struggling to understand its implications, and opportunities to exploit its ambiguities abound. I urge Treasury and IRS to issue guidance as soon as possible to address these concerns.”

He also urges the Trump Administration to issue guidance to prevent abuses of the pass-through deduction. “As taxpayers and practitioners navigate the outer limits of the pass-through deduction, we’re concerned about signs of aggressive tax-minimization strategies,” Neal states in the letter.

The new tax law, enacted last December, was the subject of a Senate Finance Committee hearing last week, where Senate Democrats focused on the pass-through deduction.  (  SFC hearing  Early Impressions of the New Tax Law– April 24)

House GOP Leaders Signal Renewed Dodd-Frank Reform Effort; Legislation Includes Roundtable-Supported HVCRE Changes

House GOP leaders have recently signaled a deal could be reached this month between the House and Senate to pass the first rewrite of the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act (DFA).  A Senate DFA financial reform bill passed in March includes a measure to reform the Basel III High Volatility Commercial Real Estate (HVCRE) Rule – a top Roundtable priority. 

House Financial Services Committee Chairman Jeb Hensarling, (R-TX) said he is open to moving the Senate-passed Dodd-Frank reform bill without changes if there are “other pathways” to advance House financial reform bills not included in the Senate plan. ( Wall Street Journal , April 26)

The bipartisan HVCRE measure originated in the House of Representatives as the Clarifying Commercial Real Estate Loans bill (H.R. 2148), which was introduced by House Financial Services Committee members Representatives Robert Pittenger (R-NC) and David Scott (D-GA).  After being voted out of the committee by a near unanimous vote (59-1), it passed the House by voice vote in November of last year (Roundtable Weekly, Nov. 10).  The Senate Banking Committee took up an identical bill in February (S. 2405), which was co-sponsored by Senators Tom Cotton (R-AR) and Doug Jones (D-AL). 

With the HVCRE measure included in the Senate-passed DFA financial reform bill, the legislation has lingered in the House amid requests from conservatives, led by House Financial Services Committee Chairman Jeb Hensarling, (R-TX), for more extensive changes.  (Roundtable Weekly, March 16 and March 23

Substantive changes by the House would likely send an amended bill back to the Senate, which could threaten support by Senate moderates and sink the prospects for passing the legislation.  Hensarling told reporters last week, “I’m not naïve. Ultimately the fate of these House bills rests in approximately eight self-styled moderate Senate Democrats.”  (Reuters, April 26) 

Hensarling added that he is open to moving the Senate bill without changes if there are “other pathways” to advance House financial reform bills not included in the Senate plan.  (Wall Street Journal, April 26) 

Speaker of the House Paul Ryan (R-WI) on Monday said, “… the capstone of our regulatory reform agenda is our replacement of Dodd Frank. We already have a bill out of the House. We have a bill out of the Senate, which is pretty amazing. So, we’re gonna get that done.” He added, “We’re a few weeks away from getting our bill into law that rewrites the Dodd Frank law.”    (The Weekly Standard, April 30) 

House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) this week reiterated that the effort to pass modest DFA reforms, versus repeal, will come soon.  “I think you are within a month of getting it … done,” McCarthy said Monday during the Milken economic conference.  He pledged that the legislation will be delivered to President Trump before November’s midterm elections, saying, “At the end of the day there will be a bill at the President’s desk.” (Reuters, April 30) 

Changes to HVCRE Rule  

If the Senate bill moves forward in the House, its Roundtable-supported HVCRE language would clarify and reform the Basel III High Volatility Commercial Real Estate (HVCRE) Rule  that has created needless confusion and increased borrowing costs.  

The Roundtable and twelve other real estate organizations on March 2, 2018 sent a  comment letter  urging all members of the Senate Banking Committee to take the necessary steps to enact S. 2405 by including the measure in the broader Dodd-Frank reform package (S. 2155).

The current HVCRE Rule is overly broad and includes many stabilized loans without construction risk in this HVCRE category, unduly burdening those loans with capital charges meant to protect banks from heightened construction risks. As a result, banks, including small community financial institutions, have been deterred from making this type of loan, which can represent up to 50 percent of a small bank loan portfolio.   

The Senate’s HVCRE measure would clarify which types of loans should be classified as HVCRE loans to ensure they do not impede credit capacity or economic activity, while still promoting economically responsible commercial real estate lending.  ( Roundtable Weekly, Jan. 12). 

Importantly for borrowers, the 15% equity requirement would be revised to expressly include contributed land/property at the appreciated land value as determined by a FIRREA appraisal and bank review (versus the cost basis under the current rule). The measure would also clarify that loans made to acquire existing property with rental income and/or do cosmetic upgrades and other improvements don’t trigger the capital penalty. 

HVCRE reform has been a top policy priority of The Real Estate Roundtable and its industry coalition partners, who have submitted numerous policy comment letters to policymakers since 2015. The Roundtable’s HVCRE Working Group has also played a key role in advancing these specific reforms. (Roundtable letter, March 2)

Roundtable Members Engage Key Policymakers on Economic Growth, Homeland Security, Mid-Term Elections Issues

Real estate industry and trade association leaders gathered this week with key policymakers in Washington, D.C. for The Roundtable’s 2018 Spring Meeting, where major topics of discussion included current market conditions and the economic outlook; the upcoming mid-term elections; infrastructure funding; terrorism risk insurance; immigration reform; and tax reform implementation.

Real estate industry and trade association leaders gathered this week in Washington, D.C. for the Roundtable’s 2018 Spring Meeting.

Roundtable Chair William C. Rudin (CEO & Vice Chairman, Rudin Management Company, Inc.) launched the Spring Roundtable Meeting with a report outlining the Roundtable’s policy priorities, such as working closely with the Treasury Department to ensure proper tax reform implementation; Dodd-Frank reform; a more market-oriented terrorism risk insurance program; attracting overseas tourists through the “Visit U.S.” coalition; reforming the EB-5 immigrant investor program; and regulatory reforms and streamlining processes for infrastructure modernization.

The Roundtable’s business meeting featured the following speakers: 

  • Tom Brokaw, Senior Correspondent, NBC News
  • Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY), Senate Majority Leader
  • Sen. Chris Coons (D-DE)
  • Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH)
  • Ray W. WashburnePresident & CEO, Overseas Private Investment Corporation
  • Julian EnoiziChief Executive, Pool Reinsurance Company Limited

World-renowned journalist and NBC News reporter Tom Brokaw with Roundtable Chair William C. Rudin (CEO & Vice Chairman,  Rudin Management Company, Inc.  )  .

World-renowned journalist and NBC News reporter Tom Brokaw spoke to Roundtable members about his lengthy career in Washington and a variety of current events.  Brokaw said that while the nation faces issues of gun violence; an ever-evolving digital transformation; challenges of statesmanship; and generational differences, he emphasized the “U.S. is a nation built on big ideas” that is open to positive change – and there must be great leaders willing to be involved in their communities and businesses. 

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell‘s dialogue with Roundtable members focused on the positive aspects of the past 15 months in the Senate, specifically the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017; confirmation of 12 circuit judges (the most since the 1800s); and 15 regulatory repeals made possible by the Congressional Review Act.  Sen McConnell also discussed the electoral landscape for November’s mid-term elections; the challenges of raising capital and financing infrastructure projects without having to solely rely on the federal government; and plans to continue to work with the administration on comprehensive immigration reform. 

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY)

A common theme echoed throughout the day was the continued need for bipartisanship in the House and Senate.  Sen. Chris Coons (D-DE) and Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH) both members of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and Ray Washborne, CEO and President of Overseas Private Investment Corporation (OPIC), discussed the recent introduction of The Better Utilization of Investments Leading to Development Act of 2018 (the BUILD Act (S.2463). The legislation is intended to promote sustainable growth in developing economies through U.S. business investment and provide more accountability for taxpayers at no expected cost. The development finance corporation will leverage the U.S. private sector’s expertise and investment capital to generate economic growth in the developing world that will support American interests. (Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Feb. 2018)

Julian Enoizi, Chief Executive of Pool Reinsurance Company Limited, who works closely with The Roundtable’s Homeland Security Task Force (HSTF) and Real Estate Information Sharing and Analysis Center (RE-ISAC), engaged Roundtable members in discussions regarding the constantly evolving terrorism threat and provided insight into developing a long-term or permanent U.S. reinsurance pooling mechanism for terrorism risk – similar to programs in the United Kingdom and throughout Europe. 

After the business meeting, approximately 30 additional policymakers attended a reception and dinner that evening at the Newseum, where real estate CEOs and trade association leaders had the opportunity to further discuss policy issues with lawmakers in an informal setting. 

Next on The Roundtable’s calendar is the all-member Annual Meeting on June 14-15 at the InterContinental Hotel-The Wharf in Washington, D.C.

Fed’s Beige Book Reports Widespread Concern About Tariffs Despite Economic Growth; CRE Activity Improves

Commercial real estate activity in the Fed’s 12 regional districts show mostly positive results, yet concerns about trade tariffs are widespread, according to the Federal Reserve’s latest “Beige Book” report about economic conditions. (The Fed, April 18)

Commercial real estate activity in the Fed’s 12 regional districts show mostly positive results, yet concerns about trade tariffs are widespread, according to the Federal Reserve’s latest  “Beige Book” report  about economic conditions. (The Fed, April 18) 

A new focus on the threat of a trade war appears in the report, with the word “tariff” used 36 times, compared with zero references in the prior survey.  The second line in the report states, “Outlooks remained positive, but contacts in various sectors including manufacturing, agriculture, and transportation expressed concern about the newly imposed and/or proposed tariffs.”  (Reuters, April 18)

The report summary also notes that steel and aluminum prices rose, “sometimes dramatically” due to the new duties imposed by the Trump Administration. (Roundtable Weekly, March 9)  The Beige Book is one of the first official reports showing the economic impact of the new tariffs on domestic business. (Wall Street Journal, April 18)

Contacts in nine of the 12 districts commented directly on the impacts of tariffs, citing concerns related to rising prices, future uncertainty, investment decisions, and how to pass increased costs on to consumers.

summary of each Fed district is included in the report, which shows economic expansion at a modest to moderate pace throughout March and early April, with the labor market described as “tight.”

Although the Fed reports that commercial real estate activity and construction has improved since March, prices have increased for building materials, especially for lumber, drywall, and concrete.  (GlobeSt, April 19)

The Fed will consider the Beige Book findings during its next meeting on May 1-2.  On Monday, New York Fed President William Dudley said the Fed would likely rise interest rates three or four times in 2018.  (Fed Calendar and CNBC, April 16)

Roundtable President and CEO Jeffrey DeBoer noted the commercial real estate industry’s concerns earlier this month, stating, “Proposed tariffs, coupled with the earlier tariffs on steel and ongoing dispute with China could have unfortunate and unintended effects on the U.S. economy by raising construction costs, and reducing jobs in real estate development.  China has continually taken advantage of trade practice laws, particularly intellectual property-vital for the U.S. to continue developing new technology, whether it be machinery, software, or energy efficient building solutions and should be held accountable but in a measured way.”  (Roundtable Weekly, April 6)

The economy and CRE will be a focus at The Roundtable’s Spring Meeting next week in Washington, which will include Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) as a featured guest.

Supreme Court Appears Divided During Oral Arguments on Expanding States’ Authority to Collect Taxes on E-Commerce Purchases; Decision Expected by June

The U.S. Supreme Court on Tuesday heard oral arguments on a long-awaited case (South Dakota v. Wayfair, Inc., No. 17-494 ) that addresses the constitutionality of states’ authority to collect sales and use taxes on Internet consumer purchases from retailers who do not have a physical presence in a state.

The U.S. Supreme Court heard  oral arguments  on a long-awaited case (South Dakota v. Wayfair, Inc., No. 17-494  ) that addresses the constitutionality of states’ authority to collect sales and use taxes on Internet consumer purchases from retailers who do not have a physical presence in a state

The Wayfair case challenges two pre-Internet Supreme Court decisions from 1991 and 1967 (Quill Corp. v. North Dakota, 504 U.S. 298, and National Bellas Hess, Inc. v. Department of Revenue of Illinois, 386 U.S. 753, respectively).  This pair of decades-old opinions exempts many internet merchants from collecting billions of dollars in sales taxes.  The U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) estimates that state and local governments could have collected an estimated 8 to 13 billion dollars in 2017 if states were given authority to require sales tax collection from all remote sellers. (GAO report, Dec. 18, 2017).  

During this week’s oral argument on Wayfair, the nine justices offered divided views.  For example, Justice Elena Kagan commented, “Congress is capable of crafting compromises and trying to figure out how to balance the wide range of interests involved here.”  Justice Sonia Sotomayor added, “Is there anything we can do to give Congress a signal it should act more affirmatively in this area?” (CQ, April 17) 

Three justices – Neil Gorsuch, Clarence Thomas and Anthony Kennedy – have expressed a willingness in past writings to rethink the Court’s case law in this area.  On Tuesday, Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg suggested now is the time for the Quill ruling to be corrected. Ginsburg asked, “If time and changing conditions have rendered it obsolete, why should the court which created the doctrine say, ‘Well, we’ll let Congress fix up what turns out to be our obsolete precedent?'” (Reuters and Wall Street Journal, April 17 / AP, April 18)

Justice Stephen Breyer also noted, “When I read your briefs, I thought absolutely right. And then I read through the other briefs, and I thought absolutely right. And you cannot both be absolutely right.” (Bloomberg Law, April 17) 

During the Supreme Court’s  oral argument on Wayfair , the nine justices offered divided views. See  transcript .

Throughout decades of congressional efforts, legislation to level the tax playing field between Internet-based retailers and “brick and mortar” stores has never passed both chambers. More recently, President Trump has signaled his support for legislation authorizing states to impose sales tax collection requirements on online purchases. (Roundtable Weekly, Feb. 23) 

The Roundtable joined The International Council of Shopping Centers, Investment Program Association, Nareit®, the National Association of REALTORS® , the National Multifamily Housing Council, NAIOP, the American Farm Bureau Federation and the South Dakota Farm Bureau Federation in filing an amicus curiae brief on March 5, urging the Justices to overrule the antiquated, pre-internet, “physical presence” test that imposes collection of sales and use taxes on traditional “brick-and-mortar” retailers – while exempting on-line retailers from those same obligations.  The March brief re-iterated many points set forth by a real estate coalition in an initial amicus brief filed last November. (Roundtable Weekly,   March 9, 2018  and Nov. 3. 2017

On Wednesday, a USA Today editorial supported the real estate industry’s viewpoint, while also including an opposing view.  (USA Today, Tax Online Shopping Like All Others, April 17) 

The Supreme Court is expected to render a decision in Wayfair by the end of June. (Wall Street Journal, April 17 and Roundtable Weekly, Jan. 12)

Trump Administration Proposes Increased Vetting of Foreign Tourists; Visit U.S. Coalition Encourages International Travel as Key to Domestic Growth

The State Department recently announced a proposal to require visa applicants to provide further extensive information on their social media presence, email addresses, and work histories when applying to travel to America.  Inbound tourists, business and convention travelers, students, and other non-immigrants would be subject to such “extreme vetting” policies proposed by the Trump Administration, along with immigrants seeking permanent U.S. residency.    

The Visit U.S. Coalition released “ America is Open for Business ,” a video highlighting international travel as a key driver of the health of America’s economy.

This newly proposed screening requirements would have affected nearly 15 million travelers last year alone from key long-haul markets such as China, India, Mexico and other nations that do not participate in the visa waiver program (VWP) with the U.S.  ( Visit U.S. Coalition, April 11.)  The new proposal would not affect travelers from countries granted visa-free travel status to the U.S. including most of Europe, Canada, Australia and Japan.

Under the proposed new requirements, U.S. visa applicants would be required to submit five years’ worth of personal information regarding telephone numbers, email addresses and details about their social media accounts on platforms such as Facebook and Twitter.  Fifteen years’ worth of physical address, employment, and foreign travel history would also be required.  (See State Department Form 5535.)  Currently, such information is only requested on a case-by-case basis when particular visa applications are flagged to warrant additional scrutiny due to terrorism or national security-related concerns.  The new proposal would require the additional information as a matter of course to supplement the already-exhaustive online visa form that tourists and other non-immigrants must currently submit when seeking U.S. entry.

“We should be encouraging international tourism and promoting policies that not only make the visa system more secure and accessible, but also streamline the process,” said Jeffrey D. DeBoer, President and CEO of The Real Estate Roundtable. “Increasing inbound international travel to the U.S. helps power the commercial real estate industry here at home through spending at hospitality, retail, attraction, health, and investment properties – all of which generate revenues to boost overall economic growth and create American jobs.”

Last month, the multi-industry Visit U.S. Coalition (which includes The Roundtable) released its policy agendaaimed at promoting and increasing inbound international travel to the United States. The coalition advocates for policies to regain the nation’s lost share of the global travel market by 2020, which will result in 88 million international visitors who directly support 1.3 million U.S. jobs and spend 294 billion dollars in travel exports – crucial to achieving the Administration’s economic goals. (Roundtable Weekly, March 2)

Following the State Department’s announcement of further intense screening for foreign inbound travelers, on Wednesday the Visit U.S. Coalition released “America is Open for Business,” a video highlighting international travel as a key driver of the health of America’s economy.

The State Department will be accepting public comments on the proposed enhanced vetting requirements until May 29.

New Reports Measure Impact of Tax Reform on Real Estate Investment and CRE’s Impact on National, State Economies

Tax reform enacted late last year will cause investment in nonresidential structures to increase by an average of more than $23 billion from 2019-2028, and rise nearly $10 billion this year alone, according to new projections released Monday by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).  (The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2018 to 2028, April 9)

CBO chartEffects of the 2017 Tax Act on Investment Through Changes in Incentives affecting Nonresidential and Residential Structures. Click to Enlarge— Page 119 of  full CBO Report

The new report isolates and analyzes the impact of recent tax reform legislation on different types of economic activity, including investment in structures. 

Tax reform’s positive impact on nonresidential investment stems from the corporate and individual rate reductions, as well as the new pass-through deduction.  Combined, these changes reduce the user cost of capital.  Cost recovery rules for structures were largely unchanged in the recent tax policy changes.

CBO projects tax reform will have a dampening effect on investment in residential housing: -$9 billion in 2018, and an average of -$13 billion annually from 2019-2028.  These numbers reflect the combined, net effect of a reduction in investment in owner-occupied housing and an increase in investment in rental housing.  Limitations on the deductibility of property taxes and mortgage interest are putting downward pressure on investment in owner-occupied housing.  Rental property investment, in contrast, benefits from the same tax reforms that affect nonresidential investment. 

As a nonpartisan arm of Congress, CBO’s annual economic and budget outlook is widely watched by the private sector for indications of how recent policy changes are affecting the overall economy.

CBO: Trillion Dollar Deficits by 2020

According to the report, borrowing to fund tax cuts and increased spending will also send deficits soaring past $1 trillion in the coming years and increase the overall debt burden to 96 percent of GDP by 2028.  (The Hill, April 9)

Under the  recent $1.3 trillion spending agreement, defense and non-defense spending will increase by nearly $300 billion over the next two years.  (Roundtable Weekly, March 23)

Although economic growth is projected by CBO to rise to 3.3 percent in 2018 – much higher than the 2.6 percent recorded last year – the estimated growth rate will decrease to 2.4 percent in 2019, followed by a drop to an average of just over 1.7 percent for the subsequent eight years of the ten-year budget period.  (The Washington Post, April 10)

Deficits are also forecast to climb dramatically.  CBO anticipates a deficit of $804 billion in 2018 (43 percent higher than it projected just last June, prior to the tax bill and spending agreement).  The amount of debt held by the public will approach 100 percent of GDP over the next ten years, an amount far greater than any period since World War II.  (CNN, April 11)

NAIOP: Building Accounts for 18.0 % of National Economic Activity in 2017

According to the   NAIOP report , combining residential and nonresidential buildings,  as well as infrastructure, the total impact of construction spending (direct, indirect and induced) – accounted for 18.0 percent of all the nation’s economic activity in 2017. 

In related news, a report recently published by the NAIOP Research Foundation shows that commercial real estate in 2017 supported 7.6 million American jobs and contributed $935.1 billion to the nation’s GDP.  (Economic Impacts of Commercial Real Estate, 2018 Edition, NAIOP)

The annual study, authored by economist Stephen S. Fuller, Ph.D, measures the contributions to GDP, salaries and wages generated, and jobs created and supported from the development and operations of commercial real estate – and includes detailed data on commercial real estate development activity in all 50 states. 

According to the study, combining residential and nonresidential buildings (warehouse/industrial, office, retail, health care, entertainment, education, public safety, religious and lodging) – as well as infrastructure for water, sewer, highways and power, the total impact of construction spending (direct, indirect and induced) — accounted for 18.0 percent of all the nation’s economic activity in 2017.

“The importance of commercial development to the U.S. economy is well established, and the industry’s growth is critical to creating new jobs, improving infrastructure, and creating places to work, shop and play,” said Thomas Bisacquino, NAIOP president and CEO.  (NAIOP news release).

CRE as a driving force of national economic growth, as well as tax reform’s impact on the industry, will be a focus of The Roundtable’s April 25, 2018 Spring Meeting, which will feature  Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and other key policymakers.