News Type: Roundtable Weekly

Fed Revises Basel III Endgame Proposal

Posted on by Abigail Grenadier

Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr previewed the latest revisions to the Basel III Endgame capital requirements this week. Amid industry opposition, Barr scaled back his initial proposal to raise capital requirements for large banks, offering a more measured approach to the rule. (Bloomberg, Sept. 10)

Basel III & CRE

  • The revised proposal would increase aggregate Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital requirements for global systemically important banks by roughly 9%—half of what would have been required in the original proposal.
  • Banks with assets between $100 billion and $250 billion are now exempt from most of the proposed changes, except for recognizing unrealized gains and losses in regulatory capital. (Politico, Sept. 10)
  • “There are benefits and costs to increasing capital requirements,” Barr said during his September 9 remarks at the Brookings Institution. “The changes we intend to make will bring these two important objectives into better balance, in light of the feedback we have received.” (Barr’s Speech | Bloomberg, Sept. 10)
  • The proposal reduces risk weights for certain residential mortgages, and retail exposures, extending this reduction to low-risk corporate debt. However, commercial real estate risk weights remain unclear.
  • Non-GSIB banks would see a long-term increase of 3 to 4% in capital requirements, mainly from the inclusion of unrealized gains and losses. Other changes are expected to add just 0.5% to their capital obligations.
  • The Roundtable raised industry concerns about the negative impact of the Basel III proposal in a Jan. 12 letter to the Fed and other agencies. The comments outlined how the proposal would decrease real estate credit availability, increase borrowing costs for commercial and multifamily real estate properties, and negatively impact the U.S. economy, concluding with a call to federal regulators to withdraw their proposed rulemaking. (Roundtable Weekly, Mar. 29)

What’s Next

  • An open Board meeting is expected to be scheduled to review the revised plan, with an announcement expected as early as Sept. 19. The plan will be open to public comment for 60 days once released.
  • While this new proposal is an improvement of the original plan, we remain concerned that any increase in capital requirements will have a pro-cyclical impact on credit capacity and still carry a cost for commercial real estate and the overall economy.

The Roundtable’s Real Estate Capital Policy Advisory Committee (RECPAC) will continue to monitor and respond to any further changes to the Basel III Endgame proposal and other federal policy issues impacting credit capacity and capital formation.

NEWS: Sentiment Index Reflects Growing Optimism Amid Persistent Market Challenges

Posted on by Abigail Grenadier

(WASHINGTON, D.C.) — The Real Estate Roundtable’s Q3 2024 Sentiment Index, which measures commercial real estate executives’ confidence and expectations about the industry environment, suggests a growing confidence in the future of the commercial real estate market despite ongoing challenges. The Q3 Sentiment Index reported an overall score of 64, reflecting an increase of three points from the previous quarter, and the Future Index at 70, up four points from the previous quarter. This rise in sentiment marks an 18-point increase in the overall score since last year.

Roundtable President and CEO Jeffrey DeBoer said, “The increase in our Q3 Sentiment Index indicates that while uncertainty remains, the industry is gradually regaining confidence. Leaders are seeing signs of stabilization in asset values and a potential improvement in the availability of capital, which are encouraging signals as we navigate this complex environment.”

He added, “The results of the report reflect the resilience of the commercial real estate industry. The fact that a majority of executives expect better conditions in the coming year is a strong signal that although serious challenges remain, the worst may be behind us.”

The Q3 Sentiment Index topline findings include:

  • All indices of The Roundtable’s Q3 Index are up, compared to the previous quarter and one year ago. The Q3 2024 Real Estate Roundtable Sentiment Index registered an overall score of 64, an increase of three points over the previous quarter. The Current Index registered 59, a four-point increase over Q2 2024. The Future Index posted a score of 70 points, an increase of four points from the previous quarter, indicating that uncertainty surrounding the future of asset values and availability of capital persists, but has lessened.
  • In Q3 2023, the Overall Index registered at 46, while the Current Index registered at 33, reflecting a notable 26-point gain in the Q3 2024 Current Index compared to the previous year. The Index is scored on a scale of 1 to 100 by averaging the scores of Current and Future Economic Sentiment Indices. Any score over 50 is viewed as positive.
  • Evolving market trends continue to shape the real estate landscape. A majority (70%) of Q3 survey participants expect general market conditions to show improvement one year from now. Additionally, 48% of respondents said conditions are better now compared to this time last year. Only 6% of Q3 participants expect general market conditions to be somewhat worse in a year, a decrease from 11% in Q2. Some subsector asset classes, such as data centers and student housing, are well-positioned from both a fundamentals and capital availability perspective. However, Class B office properties continue to face ongoing challenges, and the fast pace of multifamily and industrial rent growth has subsided.
  • A significant 88% of Q3 survey participants expressed optimism that asset values will be higher (57%) or the same (31%) one year from now, indicating some semblance of expected stability. 76% of Q3 survey participants believe asset values are slightly lower (50%) or about the same (26%) today compared to a year ago.
  • The real estate capital markets landscape remains challenging. However, 71% of respondents believe the availability of equity capital will improve in one year, while 60% said the availability of debt capital will improve in one year. 40% of participants said the availability of debt capital would be the same or worse in one year, an increase from 36% who voiced the same expectation in Q2 of this year.

Some sample responses from participants in the Sentiment Index’s Q3 survey include:

“Investors still want to allocate dollars to real estate, but there is still sentiment for defensive positioning and risk mitigation.”

“Pricing is all over the board and has reset since the post-Covid boom. The magnitude of the reset depends on where the asset is in its life cycle and its financing structure.”

“Banks have pulled back, but insurance companies have a reasonable level of capital and pricing has been stable. For higher quality assets, there’s demand.”

“Spreads are tightening on construction loans, but acquisition financing is more available. There is a lot of debt capital on the sidelines for high quality asset acquisitions.”

Data for the Q3 survey was gathered by Chicago-based Ferguson Partners on The Roundtable’s behalf in July. See the full Q3 report.

The Real Estate Roundtable brings together leaders of the nation’s top publicly-held and privately-owned real estate ownership, development, lending and management firms with the leaders of major national real estate trade associations to jointly address key national policy issues relating to real estate and the overall economy.

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Biden Administration Announces $240 Million of IRA Grants for Building Efficiency Upgrades

Posted on by Abigail Grenadier
Department of Energy building in Washington, DC

On August 27, the U.S. Department of Energy announced plans to allocate $240 million from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) to 19 state and local governments to help communities adopt energy-efficient building codes and retrofit structures to meet updated standards. (Politico, Aug. 27)

Key Details

  • The initiative is expected to reduce utility costs for multifamily residents and commercial building operators, enhance grid resilience, and lower emissions.
  • “DOE is helping jurisdictions move further and faster in implementing stronger codes that will provide Americans safer, healthier, and more comfortable places to live, work, and play,” said U.S. Secretary of Energy Jennifer Granholm. (US-DOE Press Release, Aug. 27)
  • The 19 selected projects will receive direct technical assistance to support the adoption and implementation of traditional energy codes, zero energy codes, and building performance standards.
  • The grants also align with the Justice40 Initiative, designed to direct 40% of federal investments to disadvantaged communities overburdened by pollution.
  • This latest announcement follows an initial $90 million awarded to 27 projects last year from the 2021 Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, commonly known as the bipartisan infrastructure law, to implement updated building codes. (Politico, Aug. 27)
  • Chosen jurisdictions must go through a “negotiation process” with US-DOE before the agency ultimately awards Round 1 grants. Applications for the second round of IRA funding will close on Sept. 13. (US-DOE Press Release, Aug. 27)

What’s Next

The Roundtable is developing a “primer” for real estate stakeholders, highlighting key issues in the state and local BPS trend, with a release planned for this fall.

Sentiment Index Reflects Growing Optimism Amid Persistent Market Challenges

Posted on by Abigail Grenadier

The Real Estate Roundtable’s Q3 2024 Sentiment Index, which measures commercial real estate executives’ confidence and expectations about the industry environment, suggests a growing confidence in the future of the commercial real estate market despite ongoing challenges.

Roundtable View

  • The Q3 Sentiment Index reported an overall score of 64, reflecting an increase of three points from the previous quarter, and the Future Index at 70, up four points from the previous quarter.
  • Roundtable President and CEO Jeffrey DeBoer said, “The increase in our Q3 Sentiment Index indicates that while uncertainty remains, the industry is gradually regaining confidence. Leaders are seeing signs of stabilization in asset values and a potential improvement in the availability of capital, which are encouraging signals as we navigate this complex environment.”
  • This rise in sentiment marks an 18-point increase in the overall score since last year.
  • He added, “The results of the report reflect the resilience of the commercial real estate industry. The fact that a majority of executives expect better conditions in the coming year is a strong signal that although serious challenges remain, the worst may be behind us.”

Topline Findings

  • All indices of The Roundtable’s Q3 Index are up, compared to the previous quarter and one year ago. The Index is scored on a scale of 1 to 100 by averaging the scores of Current and Future Economic Sentiment Indices. Any score over 50 is viewed as positive.
  • The Q3 2024 index registered an overall score of 64, an increase of three points over the previous quarter. The Current Index registered 59, a four-point increase over Q2 2024. The Future Index posted a score of 70 points, an increase of four points from the previous quarter, indicating that uncertainty surrounding the future of asset values and availability of capital persists, but has lessened.
  • In Q3 2023, the Overall Index registered at 46, while the Current Index registered at 33, reflecting a notable 26-point gain in the Q3 2024 Current Index compared to the previous year.
  • Evolving market trends continue to shape the real estate landscape. A majority (70%) of Q3 survey participants expect general market conditions to show improvement one year from now. Additionally, 48% of respondents said conditions are better now compared to this time last year. Only 6% of Q3 participants expect general market conditions to be somewhat worse in a year, a decrease from 11% in Q2.
  • Some subsector asset classes, such as data centers and student housing, are well-positioned from both a fundamentals and capital availability perspective. However, Class B office properties continue to face ongoing challenges, and the fast pace of multifamily and industrial rent growth has subsided.
  • A significant 88% of Q3 survey participants expressed optimism that asset values will be higher (57%) or the same (31%) one year from now, indicating some semblance of expected stability. 76% of Q3 survey participants believe asset values are slightly lower (50%) or about the same (26%) today compared to a year ago.
  • The real estate capital markets landscape remains challenging. However, 71% of respondents believe the availability of equity capital will improve in one year, while 60% said the availability of debt capital will improve in one year. 40% of participants said the availability of debt capital would be the same or worse in one year, an increase from 36% who voiced the same expectation in Q2 of this year.

Data for the Q3 survey was gathered by Chicago-based Ferguson Partners on The Roundtable’s behalf in July. Read the full Q3 report.

The Roundtable Files Amicus Brief in Sirius Solutions v. Commissioner

Posted on by Abigail Grenadier

On August 19, The Roundtable submitted an amicus brief to the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals in Sirius Solutions v. Commissioner, a pivotal case that could redefine the tax obligations of limited partners under the self-employment tax in the Self-Employed Contributions Act (SECA). (Amicus Brief)

Why It Matters

  • There are more than 441,000 limited partnerships in the U.S., with over 10 million partners. Nearly half of these limited partnerships are real estate partnerships.
  • If the IRS position prevails, it could result in widespread tax increases on real estate limited partners who provide some services to the business and effectively raise the tax burden on real estate investments.
  • The IRS’s position would requires limited partners to be “passive investors” to qualify for the exemption from the 3.8% SECA tax under Section 1402(a)(13).

Roundtable Amicus Brief

  • The Roundtable’s amicus brief argues that the IRS’s interpretation is flawed, pointing to decades of state law that allows limited partners to provide services and still retain their status.
  • The brief emphasizes that pre-1977 state court decisions and the IRS’s own 1994 proposed regulations contradict the government’s position that limited partners must be passive to avoid SECA taxes.
  • The Tax Court’s imposition of the passive investor test is found nowhere in the statute and rests on a fundamental misunderstanding of state laws that Roundtable members and others have relied on for decades.  
  • Ignoring an established body of partnership law, the IRS is relying on a recent Tax Court decision, Soroban, that imposes a judge-made test requiring a limited partner to be a “passive investor.” The Roundtable believes this fundamental error should be reversed. 

What’s Next

  • The Fifth Circuit’s ruling in Sirius will set a precedent for future SECA tax cases, with significant consequences for real estate and other industries that use limited partnerships for business purposes.
  • A successful outcome in the Sirius case could reduce the likelihood that the government moves forward with formal tax guidance that expands the reach of SECA taxes.    

The Roundtable remains committed to protecting entrepreneurs’ ability to flexibly organize in partnerships and other pass-through entities that promote capital formation, risk-taking, and economic growth, and it will remain engaged as the SECA dispute moves forward.   

New Study on Rent Control Shows Proposals Impede Housing Production

Posted on by Abigail Grenadier

In July, the White House announced a nationwide rent control plan that aims to cap rent increases at 5%. Owners of rental housing would only be able to take advantage of depreciation write-offs if they limit annual rent increases to no more than 5%, effectively trading depreciation deductions for price controls.

Economists on Rent Control Proposals

  • The White House’s recent rent control plan, while intended to make renting more affordable, would impede the production of much-needed housing, particularly for affordable units. (RW, July 19)
  • Last week, The Roundtable and a coalition of national real estate associations, wrote to President Biden expressing strong opposition to the proposed rent control measures. (RW, July 26)
  • Economists across the political spectrum widely agree that rent control is a discredited policy. Jason Furman, the former Obama administration’s top White House economist, asserts that rent control would worsen housing supply issues instead of solving them.
  • A recent study by the University of Chicago surveyed 45 economists from elite institutions, revealing near-universal agreement that national rent control measures would do little to aid Americans and would ultimately worsen the housing shortage. (NMHC, July 30)

Survey Findings:

  • No economist agreed rent control would substantially reduce income inequality.
  • 2% of economists surveyed agreed that a national rent cap would substantially improve the lives of middle-income Americans over the next 10 years.
  • 62% of the economists agreed or strongly agreed that the Administration’s rent cap proposal would substantially reduce the amount of available apartments over the next 10 years, compared to 7% who disagreed.

The Roundtable will continue to encourage policymakers to enact measures that will expand the nation’s housing infrastructure, develop more affordable units and reduce the costs of housing. 

Fed Holds Rates Steady: Implications for Commercial Real Estate

Posted on by Abigail Grenadier

The Federal Reserve chose to maintain current interest rates at the same level since last July, despite calls from economists and policymakers to implement a cut. (AP News, July 31 | Axios, July 31)

Fed’s Decision

  • Fed chair Jerome Powell emphasized the need for data-driven decisions, indicating that future rate adjustments will hinge on economic indicators. (Washington Post, July 31)
  • During the June meeting, Fed officials released their Summary of Economic Projections report, which showed that policymakers penciled in just one rate cut this year, down from the three initially estimated at the start of the year. (RW, June 14)
  • After the decision, Powell said, “a reduction in our policy rate could be on the table as soon as the next meeting in September.” (Barrons, Aug.1)
  • In June, Senators Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), Jacky Rosen (D-NV), and John Hickenlooper (D-CO) wrote to Powell, urging the Fed to cut the federal funds interest rates from a two-decade-high of 5.5 percent, citing that high interest rates are increasing the costs of housing and insurance, and exacerbating the housing supply crisis. (Letter)
  • In their letter on housing prices, they emphasized that “The country is already facing a severe housing shortage, and the Fed’s refusal to bring down interest rates is exacerbating this shortage and driving higher inflation rates…Lower mortgage rates would encourage more people to sell their homes, which would in turn increase housing supply, decrease prices, ease the costs of renting, and ultimately increase homeownership.”

CRE Markets

RER board member Owen Thomas (BXP)
  • With interest rates unchanged at a 23-year high, the commercial real estate sector faces significant challenges, particularly in financing and investment, as higher rates increase borrowing costs and reduce demand for development.
  • Higher interest rates and the pandemic-induced shift to remote work have left a lasting impact on office demand, prompting landlords to rethink space utilization.
  • In a recent interview with Bloomberg Television, RER board member Owen Thomas (BXP) discussed the transformation of the office market and the need for innovation and adaptability in the face of changing tenant needs and market conditions. (Watch interview)

The Fed’s next meeting is scheduled for September 17-18, 2024.

Bipartisan Tax Bill Stalls in Senate

Posted on by Abigail Grenadier

Yesterday, the Senate failed to pass a bipartisan $79 billion tax package, the Tax Relief for American Families and Workers Act of 2024 (H.R. 7024). The House-passed legislation seeks to extend various expiring tax provisions from the 2017 and pandemic-related tax bills. (WSJ, Aug. 1 | The Hill, Aug. 1)

Key Points

  • Bipartisan Effort: Senate Finance Committee Chair Ron Wyden (D-OR) and House Ways and Means Committee Chair Jason Smith (R-MO) crafted the Tax Relief for American Families and Workers Act of 2024 (H.R. 7024). The bill passed the House on Jan. 31 by an overwhelming 357-70 vote.
  • Senate Opposition: Despite bipartisan support, the bill faced significant opposition in the Senate, where critics argued it failed to adequately address long-term fiscal concerns and prioritized short-term fixes.
  • Roundtable Support: The bill included Roundtable-supported measures on business interest deductibility, bonus depreciation, and the low-income housing tax credit (LIHTC).
  • Other provisions in the agreement: Reforms to the child tax credit, the expensing of R&D costs, disaster tax relief, a double-taxation tax agreement with Taiwan, and a large pay-for that creates significant new penalties for abuse of the employee retention tax credit (ERTC) rules and accelerates the expiration of the ERTC. (RW, Jan. 19)

Roundtable Advocacy

  • In February, The Roundtable and a large coalition of housing and other real estate groups sent letters to Congress in support of the tax bill. (RW, Feb. 16)
  • The Roundtable and the Housing Affordability Coalition’s letter emphasized the importance of advancing provisions in the bill that strengthen the low-income housing tax credit (LIHTC)—along with various real estate investment measures that would benefit families, workers, and the national economy.
  • The coalition noted how the bill would increase the housing supply as a positive response to the nation’s housing affordability crisis. It would also suspend certain tax increases on business investment that took effect in 2022 and 2023. 

Congress will return to Washington on September 9, with several critical legislative priorities on the agenda, including decisions on key housing policies and potential new regulations impacting the commercial real estate industry.

Roundtable Requests Additional Guidance for FIRPTA REIT Regulations

Posted on by Abigail Grenadier

Today, The Roundtable wrote to U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen requesting that the Treasury Department provide additional clarifying guidance regarding transition relief in the Foreign Investment in Real Property Tax Act’s (FIRPTA) regulations for domestically controlled REITs.  (Letter)

Key Concerns

  • In April, Treasury issued final regulations that redefined what constitutes a domestically controlled REIT exempt from tax under FIRPTA. The regulations created a new look-through rule that extended the reach of the discriminatory FIRPTA regime to common investment structures. (Roundtable Weekly, April 26)
  • Clarifying guidance is necessary and urgent to enable a qualified investment entity (QIE) to make a timely determination concerning its direct or indirect ownership of “U.S. real property interests” (“USRPI(s)”) under the conditions of the Transition Rule.
  • Impact on foreign investment: Foreign investment can attract significant capital, helping to support market stability and create jobs. The final regulations, designed to define a domestically controlled QIE, are feared to be deterring foreign investment in U.S. real estate.
  • Outstanding questions: Specifically, the letter seeks additional guidance on: what constitutes “direct or indirect” ownership of real estate when it is held by a REIT through multiple subsidiaries, how to treat acquisition costs and capitalization expenditures, and situations where ongoing construction or substantial renovations are occurring. 

Roundtable Advocacy

FIRPTA
  • The Roundtable has consistently advocated for the withdrawal of regulations and policies that hinder foreign investment in U.S. real estate. (Roundtable Weekly, April 26)
  • David Friedline, a tax partner at Deloitte and Vice Chair of RER’s Tax Policy Advisory Committee (TPAC) said, “The official guidance would provide needed clarification for our members, who have been adversely affected by the final regulations’ new look-through rule, on how to comply with the conditions of the transition relief.”  Friedline was a principal drafter of the Roundtable letter. 
  • Building new affordable housing and office-to-residential conversion projects requires encouraging more investment, not less. Erecting new barriers to passive foreign investment in U.S. real estate runs counter to important bipartisan policy priorities.

The Roundtable remains committed to collaborating with the Treasury to ensure that the final regulations can provide much-needed clarity and stability, supporting the industry’s efforts to attract foreign capital and drive economic growth.

Real Estate Coalition Opposes Federal Rent Control Proposal

Posted on by Abigail Grenadier

On Monday, a coalition of national real estate associations, including The Real Estate Roundtable, wrote to President Biden expressing strong opposition to recently proposed nationwide rent control measures. (Letter)

Key Points

  • Last week, the White House announced a nationwide rent control plan that aims to cap rent increases at 5%. Owners of rental housing would only be able to take advantage of depreciation write-offs if they limit annual rent increases to no more than 5%, effectively trading depreciation deductions for price controls. (Roundtable Weekly, July 19)
  • Negative impacts of rent control: Rent control consistently leads to instability in the housing market and reduced supply, undermining efforts to foster a healthy and equitable housing environment.
  • Economic consensus: Economists across the political spectrum widely agree that rent control is a discredited policy. Jason Furman, the former Obama administration’s top White House economist, asserts that rent control would worsen housing supply issues instead of solving them.
  • Disincentive for investment: Rent control discourages necessary housing investments, particularly in areas with limited affordable options. It disproportionately benefits higher-income renters, impeding access for lower-income households.

Coalition Recommendations

  • Increase housing subsidies: Instead of imposing rent control, the coalition urges the administration to increase subsidies for those in need and to work with housing providers on solutions that expand the affordable housing supply.
  • Support proven solutions: The coalition advocates for enhancing federal programs such as the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) and Section 8, which have been effective in creating and preserving affordable housing units.

Industry Testimony

  • On Wednesday, the House Financial Services Committee Subcommittee on Housing and Insurance held a hearing, “Housing Solutions: Cutting Through Government Red Tape” to discuss the nation’s housing affordability crisis and burdensome federal government reviews and permitting processes.
  • NMHC Chair Schloemer stated in his testimony, “Decades of research shows that rent regulation devastates rental housing quality and harms affordability. The Biden administration proposal to cap rents will not add a single new unit of housing, and, in fact worsens housing availability and quality.”
  • Hastening the permit approval process must be a critical part of any policy legislation aimed at increasing the supply of affordable housing. (NYT, July 8)

The Roundtable and the coalition will continue to educate policymakers about and push back against flawed rent control policies while advocating for bipartisan solutions to boost supply and affordability.