News Type: Roundtable Weekly

House Democratic Leader and Other Policymakers Discuss Economic and CRE Market Issues

Posted on by Abigail Grenadier
The Real Estate Roundtable's Spring Meeting April 15-16, 2024

This week’s Real Estate Roundtable meeting focused on national policies impacting commercial real estate, with an emphasis on the economy, the need for increased federal support for property conversions, and capital and credit issues. Guests such as House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) and other prominent policymakers also discussed the housing crisis, return-to-office issues, and the upcoming elections. (The Roundtable’ Spring 2024 Policy Priorities and Executive Summary)

Speakers & Policy Issues

John Fish, House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries, and Jeffrey Deboer
  • Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY), center, with Roundtable Chair John Fish (Chairman & CEO, SUFFOLK), left, and Roundtable President and CEO Jeffrey DeBoer, right, discussed policymaking in the House, the need to balance geopolitical urgencies with pressing domestic priorities, and finding bipartisan paths to solve the nation’s problems.
  • House Financial Services Committee Member French Hill (R-AR), right, engaged in a discussion moderated by Michelle Herrick (Head of Real Estate Banking, J.P. Morgan), left, that addressed the wave of maturing CRE loans and the future of a regulatory proposal to hike bank capital requirements known as “Basel III.” (Roundtable Weekly, March 8)
Jared Bernstein, Chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers
  • White House Council of Economic Advisers Chair Jared Bernstein, above, emphasized that affordable housing is a high-priority focus of the Biden administration—and welcomed a series of recommendations by The Roundtable on how the Biden administration could further support commercial-to-residential property conversions. He also discussed inflation’s role in credit and capital markets. (See story below)
Enice Thomas, Deputy Comptroller for Credit Risk Policy, Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC)
  • Enice Thomas (Deputy Comptroller for Credit Risk Policy, Office of the Comptroller of the Currency), above, focused on economic risk for regional banks that service specific property types and locations within office and multifamily sectors. Thomas clarified that the OCC encourages bankers to work with borrowers early if any stress indicator arises in their portfolio. He added federal banking regulators are monitoring office markets closely as a wave of loan maturities looms. 
Kevin Palmer (Head of Multifamily, Freddie Mac)—right
  • Kevin Palmer (Head of Multifamily, Freddie Mac)—above right, with Roundtable Board Member Matt Rocco (President, Colliers Mortgage), left—spoke with Roundtable members about Freddie’s role in the industry. He noted that the CMBS market is “humming” and added that planning for a significant refinance opportunity is important, although exceeding Freddie’s caps is an FHFA issue.

Next on The Roundtable’s meeting calendar is the all-member Annual Meeting on June 20-21 in Washington, DC, which will also feature meetings of RER’s Policy Advisory Committees.

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Senate Bill Calls for More Federal Telework Data as Study Shows DC Agencies Using 12 Percent of Office Space

Posted on by Abigail Grenadier

A bipartisan Senate bill introduced on April 3 would increase oversight of federal telework policies after a recent report showed government agency headquarters in Washington, DC are using an average of 12% of their office space. (Committee news release and Public Buildings Reform Board report)

Congressional Push

  • The Telework Transparency Act (S. 4043) from Sens. Joni Ernst (R-IA) and Gary Peters (D-MI), chairman of the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, would require agencies to gather information on how telework impacts agency performance and federal property decisions. (Government Executive, April 8 and Federal News Network, April 3)
  • Last month’s report from the Public Buildings Reform Board (PBRB) concludes that the “massive scale” of underutilized federal property creates an “outsized opportunity to save money and improve outcomes through property disposals and smarter real estate decisions.” (GlobeSt, April 9 and Bisnow, April 3)

Roundtable Efforts

Jeffrey DeBoer, President and CEO, The Real Estate Roundtable
  • The Real Estate Roundtable wrote to members of the Senate about the need for the federal government to end its “active encouragement of remote working for federal employees” and for federal agencies to return to their pre-pandemic workplace practices. (RER letter to the Senate, April 12, 2023 and Commercial Observer, April 14, 2023)
  • Roundtable President and CEO Jeffrey DeBoer, above, sent a similar request to President Biden, noting that federal telework policies were ignoring “the negative impacts of remote work on cities and communities, labor productivity, and U.S. economic competitiveness, as well as the quality of government services.” (RER letter to President Biden, Dec. 12, 2022)
  • The economic impact of remote work in the public and private sectors will be discussed next week during The Roundtable’s Spring Meeting in Washington, DC. (Roundtable-level members only).  

Policymaker guests will include House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY), House Financial Services Committee Member Rep. French Hill (R-AR), and Jared Bernstein, chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers.

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States May Tap Into Federal Funds to Help CRE Owners Comply With City Climate Laws

Posted on by Abigail Grenadier
DOE LPO webinar on BPS

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) announced a new financing program this week for states to access federal funds that could help real estate owners meet state, city, and county building performance standards (BPS).

State Energy Financing Institutions

  • An April 9 webinar hosted by the White House and DOE’s Loan Programs Office provided information on plans to make federal money available to state energy financing institutions (SEFIs).
  • Federal funds deployed under the SEFI program will be channeled through state agencies, which in turn will provide loans and grants to qualified building owners.
  • SEFIs that receive federal DOE “certification” will assist compliance with building emissions and energy efficiency limits set by a growing number of states and localities. 
  • The LPO has released a SEFI Toolkit that describes the contours of the program.
  • The Roundtable supports non-binding federal guidelines that bring national consistency to the conflicting patchwork of local BPS mandates.(DOE “blueprint” to decarbonize buildings; Roundtable Weekly, Sept. 15)

Funding Criteria

LPO for Building Sector
  • States will establish eligibility financing criteria under federal guidelines. They will likely prioritize disbursements to buildings in low-income areas and low-income housing.
  • SEFI funds could be deployed to support commercial-to-residential property conversions in jurisdictions with BPS laws.
  • To scale the program, DOE stated on the webinar that federal funds channeled through the states will be geared to support energy work on a portfolio of buildings rather than single projects.
  • The agency also stated that DOE-sourced funds will aim to support assets that strive to meet the forthcoming national definition for a Zero Emissions Building (“ZEB”). (Roundtable Fact Sheet on ZEB, Jan. 18)

The Roundtable’s Sustainability Policy Advisory Committee (SPAC) continues to work closely with the White House and DOE on climate initiatives impacting commercial real estate.

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Broad Coalition Urges Congressional Tax Writers to Support Like-Kind Exchange Rules

Posted on by Abigail Grenadier

This week, The Real Estate Roundtable and 35 other national business organizations urged leaders of the Senate and House tax-writing committees to preserve long-standing tax rules governing like-kind exchanges (LKEs). The April 10 letter encouraged policymakers to reject proposals, such as those in President Biden’s budget, to restrict the use of LKEs. (Coalition letter, April 10)

Value of LKEs

  • The letter, sent to the chairs and ranking members of the House Ways and Means and Senate Finance Committees, details the importance of LKEs to the health, recovery, and realignment of U.S. commercial real estate in the post-pandemic economy.  
  • Exchanges have helped offset reduced transaction activity associated with high interest rates and other sources of economic uncertainty.  Without LKEs, many properties would languish—underutilized and underinvested—because of the tax burden that would apply to an outright sale.   
  • The letter notes how LKEs increase economic mobility for cash-poor small business owners, farmers, and entrepreneurs—including minorities, women, and veterans—while contributing to environmental conservation efforts, housing affordability, and redevelopment in economically struggling cities and towns.

Widespread Use

  • Academic and other economic research has repeatedly demonstrated the positive economic contribution of LKE. Research by Professors David Ling (University of Florida) and Milena Petrova (Syracuse University) estimates that 10 to 20 percent of commercial real estate transactions involve a like-kind exchange. 
  • A recent Marcus & Millichap analysis demonstrates the value of LKEs to the health and financing of the commercial real estate industry, particularly during market corrections and liquidity shortages. (Roundtable Weekly, Dec. 1, 2023)

House Tax Hearings

  • Separately, congressional hearings in the House this week considered tax provisions scheduled to expire at the end of 2025 that were enacted in the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA).
  • During an April 11 House Ways and Means Committee hearing, Chairman Jason Smith (R-MO) stated, “With the expiration of the 199A small business deduction, we will see even more ‘closed for business’ signs up and down Main street when their federal tax rate jumps to over 40 percent.”
  • Chairman Smith added that strong bipartisan support for key TCJA provisions exists in the House after passage earlier this year of the Tax Relief for American Families and Workers Act (H.R. 7024) by a vote of 357-70. (Roundtable Weekly, Feb. 2)

The $79 billion tax package passed by the House includes Roundtable-supported measures on business interest deductibility, bonus depreciation, and the low-income housing tax credit (LIHTC), but continues to face hurdles in the Senate. The Roundtable and 21 other industry organizations that comprise the Housing Affordability Coalition urged the Senate on Feb. 15 to pass the tax package.

Ray Torto, Pioneer of Real Estate Research and Former Roundtable Research Committee Chairman

Posted on by Abigail Grenadier
Ray Torto

Real estate industry research pioneer Ray Torto passed on April 7 after an accomplished professional career spanning roles in academia, government, and the private sector that included service as chairman of The Real Estate Roundtable’s Research Committee. (Torto obituary)

  • Roundtable President and CEO Jeffrey DeBoer said, “Ray was well-known throughout the industry for decades as an astute leader who offered original insights about the important role of data in real estate markets and its application to national policy. The Roundtable will always remember his valuable guidance leading our Research Committee, and we will miss him.”
  • In 1982, Ray partnered with Bill Wheaton of MIT to start Torto-Wheaton Research (TWR, now CBRE Econometric Advisors). TWR was among the first to bring data analysis and econometrics to the real estate industry, paving the way for increased institutional capital investment. See an appreciation by current Roundtable Research Committee Chair Spencer Levy, CBRE Global Client Strategist and Senior Economic Advisor.

After Ray retired from CBRE, he returned to the classroom to become a lecturer at the Harvard Graduate School of Design. Reflecting on his career in an interview in 2014, Ray said that his favorite part of the real estate industry was the many people he worked with over the years. An additional interview from 2017 is available from The Counselors of Real Estate (CRE).

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Fed Cautions About Office Sector as Vacancies Climb and Loan Modifications Surge

Posted on by Abigail Grenadier
La Salle Street, Chicago, Illinois, USA

Recent reports show U.S. office vacancies climbed to nearly 20% during Q1 2024 after loan modifications more than doubled last year compared to 2023. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr cautioned this week that federal regulators are “looking carefully at banks with heavy concentrations in office commercial real estate where there are significant, expected price declines.” (Moody’s Analytics, April 2 | CRED iQ, March 28 | (C-SPAN video, April 3)

Office Sector

  • Preliminary data from Moody’s Analytics reinforces the long-term, negative ramifications of hybrid work models. The Q1 2024 office vacancy rate set a new record at 19.8%, up from 19.6% in the prior quarter, and beating two historic peaks of 19.3% in 1986 and 1991. (Bloomberg, April 2 | Quartz, April 3 | CRE Daily, April 4)
  • “The office stress isn’t quite done yet,” said Thomas LaSalvia, Moody’s head of commercial real estate economics and an author of the report. He added, “This is part of a longer-term evolution where we are seeing obsolete buildings in obsolete neighborhoods.” (Bloomberg, April 2)
  • Brookfield’s Feb. 14 report, “The Misunderstood U.S. Office Market,” emphasizes that high vacancy rates are due to an excess of dated, functionally obsolete office buildings and an undersupply of offices that satisfy tenants’ changing needs.
  • A Roundtable-led coalition of 16 national real estate organizations urged the expansion of a 20 percent tax credit for qualified property conversion expenditures in an Oct. 12, 2022 letter to policymakers. The recommended enhancements included expanding the category of properties eligible for the credit to various types of commercial buildings such as shopping centers and hotels. (Roundtable Weekly, Nov. 11, 2022)

Fed Oversight & CRE Sectors

Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr
  • The Fed’s top market supervisor told the National Community Reinvestment Coalition on April 3 that CRE refinancing deals will “take some time to work through” as the Fed closely monitors office sector conditions. (C-Span | BGov, April 3 | Roundtable Weekly, March 8)
  • Barr said, “This is the kind of thing where it is likely a slow-moving train as the financial sector and commercial real estate market move forward. Over the next two to three years, we are going to see how properties deal with refinancing in a higher interest rate environment. Occupancy rates have lowered because of work-from-home, so for some categories of office CRE they are more exposed to risk.”
Kathleen McCarthy
  • Kathleen McCarthy, global co-head of Blackstone Real Estate and chair-elect of The Real Estate Roundtable, commented to CNBC’s “Closing Bell Overtime” on April 3 that the office sector is different from other CRE investment areas that have performed well. “We do feel like there’s a bottoming happening. There’s no V-shaped recovery … but we do see the cost of capital coming down, we’re seeing more liquidity in markets, and perhaps more importantly for the long term, we’re seeing a sharp decline in new supply,” she said.
  • Barron’s recognized McCarthy this week as one of the 100 Most Influential Woman in Finance. She commented on her upcoming role as Roundtable Chair: “To bring together my interest in policy and have a position to help our whole industry in Washington is really exciting.” (Barron’s, April 4)

Commercial and multifamily market conditions will be discussed during RER’s April 15-16 Spring Meeting in Washington DC (Roundtable-level members only) with guests including White House Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Jared Bernstein,  House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY), and House Financial Services Member French Hill (R-AK). 

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Biden Administration Outlines Options to Cut Building Emissions

Posted on by Abigail Grenadier
Department of Energy's “Decarbonizing the U.S. Economy by 2050: A National Blueprint for the Buildings Sector”

Reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from buildings is the focus of a “national strategy document” released this week by the Biden administration. The Department of Energy (DOE) “blueprint” has no regulatory impact on private sector assets, but it articulates aspirational goals to reduce building-related emissions 65% by 2035 and 90% by 2050. (Department of Energy (DOE) news release, April 2 and Politico EnergyWire, April 3)

Four Pathways

“Decarbonizing the U.S. Economy by 2050: A National Blueprint for the Buildings Sector” outlines four action categories:

  1. Increase Building Energy Efficiency
    DOE acknowledges the value of federal tools that help building owners and jurisdictions benchmark, track, and improve efficiency (e.g., ENERGY STAR Portfolio Manager, Portfolio Manager Data Explorer)—all supported by The Real Estate Roundtable. (Roundtable Weekly, March 22)

  2. Reduce On-site Emissions
    DOE notes that building electrification with heat pumps is a primary strategy for reducing on-site, fossil-fuel fired building emissions. DOE’s goal also includes reducing on-site emissions from fluorinated gas (including equipment refrigerant leakage), foam-blowing agents, and fire suppressants. (DOE document pages 26-28)

  3. Transform the “Grid Edge”
    Federal efforts could help buildings better connect with the power grid through storage methods, on-site renewable generation, and EV charging. (DOE document pages 28-30)

  4. Minimize Embodied Life Cycle Emissions
    The document lists strategies to reduce embodied emissions, including repurposing existing buildings, new construction methods, and reducing emissions intensity of construction materials. (DOE document pages 31-32)

Noteworthy Recommendations

Los Angeles
  • The Biden administration framework acknowledges the need for CRE owners to access whole-building utility data. Metrics on building energy usage can be used to complete requirements for benchmarking and building performance disclosures. State regulators and local governments could support emission reduction goals by requiring utility companies to provide customers with access to tenant-meter data. (DOE document page 52)
  • The blueprint recognizes the need for government-sponsored low-interest loans and tax credits to support clean power projects at buildings. (DOE document page 40 and Table 5, page 43)
  • The blueprint also encourages federal-level resources to help city and state governments implement building performance standards (BPS). The Roundtable supports non-binding federal guidelines that bring order and national consistency to the conflicting patchwork of local BPS mandates. (DOE document pages 24-25 and 50-51 | Roundtable Weekly, Sept. 15)

DOE plans to vet these recommendations for federal actions to reduce building emissions in the future with a wide range of stakeholders, track progress on their implementation, and amend the document as needed.

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Fed Signals Significant Changes Ahead for Basel III Endgame Proposal

Posted on by Abigail Grenadier

Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr said in a recent speech that he is working with other regulators on “broad and material changes” to a sweeping banking proposal known as the “Basel III Endgame.” The proposal, opposed by The Roundtable, would hike capital requirements for banks with at least $100 billion in assets by approximately 19 percent. (Bloomberg, March 22, 2024 and Congressional Research Service, Nov. 30, 2023)

Fed Statements

  • Barr said during his March 22 University of Michigan remarks, “I am working very closely with (Fed) Chair (Jerome) Powell and other members of our Federal Reserve board to try to reach a broad consensus” on revisions to the proposal.
  • The Fed, Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) approved the 1,100-page proposed rulemaking last July by an unusually close 4-2 vote.  See Interagency Overview of the Notice of Proposed Rulemaking for Amendments to the Regulatory Capital Rule, July 27. (Roundtable Weekly, July 28, 2023)
  • Powell voted for the original rulemaking proposal but noted a significant tone of caution. Statements by Fed Governors Michelle W. Bowman and Christopher J. Waller bolstered their opposition to the proposal.

Basel III and CRE

The Federal Reserve Building in Washington DC
  • The Real Estate Roundtable urged federal regulators to withdraw the proposed rulemaking in a Jan. 12 letter that raised industry concerns about its negative impact. The comments outlined how the proposal would decrease real estate credit availability, increase commercial and multifamily properties’ borrowing costs, and negatively impact the U.S. economy.
  • Real Estate Roundtable President and CEO Jeffrey DeBoer also stated in a March 2023 comment letter to Barr and other key regulators, “At this critical time, it is important that the agencies do not engage in pro-cyclical policies such as requiring financial institutions to increase capital and liquidity levels to reflect current mark to market models. These policies would have the unintended consequence of further diminishing liquidity and creating additional downward pressure on asset values.”
  • The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported last month that 20 percent ($929 billion) of the $4.7 trillion of outstanding commercial mortgages held by lenders and investors will mature in 2024. That represents a 28 percent increase from the $729 billion that matured in 2023, according to MBA’s Commercial Real Estate Survey of Loan Maturity Volumes.

The Roundtable’s Real Estate Capital Policy Advisory Committee (RECPAC) will respond to any further changes to the Basel III proposal or other federal policies impacting capital and credit issues.

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Office Vacancy Rates Rise as Remote Work Arrangements Linger

Posted on by Abigail Grenadier

Recent media reports show the U.S. commercial real estate office market continues to adapt to pressures from remote work, increased vacancy rates, and difficulties with price discovery.

Building Value and Rent

  • On March 26, the Wall Street Journal cited CoStar data showing that average U.S. asking office rents rose despite lower office demand and more empty space.
  • David Bitner, the head of global research for Newmark told the Journal that if rents were cut to fill empty space, it “would significantly reduce the appraised values of their buildings. This in turn could lead to a covenant default on their loans or at minimum would make it harder for them to refinance.” 
  • The Journal noted that the value of office buildings will reset after owners and lenders manage to restructure mortgages or sell distressed properties. Another major influence on office rental rates is the adoption of new hybrid workplace arrangements by businesses that require less space. (Article: “The Office Market Is in Turmoil. So Why Are Rents More Expensive?”)
  • According to an MSCI index, the average value of office buildings in central business districts fell nearly 41% from July 2022 to the beginning of this year. (Wall Street Journal, March 26)
  • The New York Times reported on March 14 about the options facing municipal officials as nearly $3 trillion of outstanding commercial real estate debt is coming due by 2028 while tax revenues from commercial properties drop. The consequences of remote work and a post-pandemic shift in the use of the built environment are leading city officials to assess lower tax revenue assessments and consider policy changes to incentivize commercial-to-residential conversions, cutbacks to local services, or raise taxes.

Vacancy Rates Increase

  • Commercial Edge’s National Office Report reported on March 22 that there was a noticeable adjustment in demand for office spaces in the first two months of this year, partly due to the ongoing shift towards remote and hybrid work models. These challenges were exacerbated by higher interest rates and ongoing economic uncertainties that put pressure on upcoming maturing loans.
  • The report also shows that the national office vacancy rate is 17.9 percent, up 140 basis points year-over-year. It also stated that San Francisco’s vacancy rate climbed 480 basis points year-over-year to 23.4 percent.

Government Remote Work

Real Estate Roundtable President and CEO Jeffrey DeBoer
Real Estate Roundtable President and CEO Jeffrey DeBoer spoke at the PREA conference last week.
  • For public buildings, the influence of return-to-office trends on federal employees was reflected in the $1.2 trillion government funding package recently signed by President Biden. (Reuters, March 23 | Roundtable Weekly, March 22)
  • The fiscal 2024 measure included six new requirements for agencies to report data about federal telework, return-to-office trends, and use of federal office space. (Federal News Network, March 21)
  • Roundtable President and CEO Jeffrey DeBoer has consistently emphasized that federal policies promoting remote work undermine the health of cities, local tax bases, and small businesses. The Real Estate Roundtable has urged President Biden and national policymakers to end government policies that encourage remote working arrangements for federal employees. (RER letter to President Biden, Dec. 2022; RER letter to Senate, April 2023)

Mr DeBoer, speaking last week in Nashville at the Pension Real Estate Association (PREA) conference, noted that office vacancy rates are a bit misleading given the significant number of aging and obsolete building that do not functionally meet modern tenant demands. The Roundtable continues to urge incentives to encourage the conversion of these buildings to much-needed housing.  

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Policymakers Aim to Pass $1.2 Trillion Budget, Avoid Shutdown

Posted on by Abigail Grenadier

Lawmakers pushed a sprawling $1.2 trillion legislative package through Congress today that would avoid a government shutdown at midnight by funding more than half the government through Sept. 30. After the House passed the funding measure today, the Senate will likely approve the package and send it to President Biden for his signature. (Bloomberg and Forbes, March 22)

Minibus Faces Fiscal Cliff

  • If the Senate debate goes past the midnight “fiscal cliff,” the White House budget office can delay a shutdown order before Monday. Congress is aiming to pass the budget before departing Washington for their two-week Easter break. (Washington Post, March 20 and AP, March 22)
  • The 1,012-page, six-bill “minibus” (H.R. 2882) includes funding for the IRS, Pentagon, Department of Homeland Security, and foreign aid. Five and a half months after FY2024 began on Oct. 1, 2023, the government has operated on temporary funding extensions. (PBS, March 22)
  • The Congressional Budget Office listed a detailed breakdown of this week’s funding bundle on March 21. The other half of the government’s budget was enacted earlier this month under a two-tiered congressional agreement. (NBC News, March 9 and Roundtable Weekly, March 1)

House Republicans

  • Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) filed a motion (H. Res. 2203) to remove House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA), above, from his leadership post in protest over the legislation. Since the motion was filed but not brought up for a vote, no immediate action will be taken. “This is more of a warning than a pink slip,” she said. (Wall Street Journal, March 22)

Speaker Johnson’s House Republican caucus is about to drop to a one-vote majority, as retiring Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-WI) will exit the House as soon as next month. (Politico, March 22)

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