Congress Faces Shutdown Threat Amid Funding Battles

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) announced this afternoon that the House will vote tonight on a revised version of the bill that was defeated on Thursday, excluding the debt ceiling provision advocated by President-elect Trump. (Politico, Live updates)

Latest Funding Plan

  • On Thursday, Democrats and a group of Republicans rejected a second Continuing Resolution (CR) proposal in a decisive 174-235 vote, which fell short of the two-thirds majority needed under expedited rules.  (Axios, Dec. 20)
  • Elon Musk and President-elect Trump amplified tensions in Congress, urging Johnson to abandon the bipartisan agreement he reached with top Democrats in favor of a Republican-preferred measure earlier in the week. (AP, Dec. 20)
  • By rejecting the Trump-endorsed proposal, Democrats signaled they would not support legislation unless they were included in negotiations.

Roundtable Urges National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) Extension

  • The Roundtable and 11 other organizations wrote to Congressional leadership urging swift action to extend the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) before its December 20 expiration. (NFIP Letter, Dec. 20)
  • The letter emphasized the urgency of passing the “NFIP Extension Act of 2024” in the event of a government funding lapse. This legislation, already introduced in both the House and Senate, would extend the NFIP through September 30, 2025, ensuring continuity and aligning the program with the end of the fiscal year.

Debt Ceiling

  • House Republican leaders unveiled a plan this afternoon to raise the debt ceiling by $1.5 trillion in early 2025, paired with $2.5 trillion in cuts to mandatory spending. (Politico, Dec. 20)
  • GOP leaders aim to use the reconciliation process next year to pass these measures with a simple majority vote in the Senate, bypassing the filibuster. The proposal directly challenges President-elect Donald Trump’s demands for immediate bipartisan action to raise the debt ceiling.
  • GOP leaders hope to leverage this budget tool to achieve major policy goals, such as increased border security and expiring tax cuts, but face challenges in rallying the slim majorities they will have in both chambers when the new Congress is sworn in. (Politico, Dec. 20)

What’s next: The GOP plan sets the stage for a contentious fiscal battle in 2025, as the party grapples with how to balance its policy priorities against the looming threat of economic fallout.

CRE’s Year of Transformation: Lessons from 2024 and Outlook for 2025

As 2024 comes to a close, the commercial real estate industry has made significant strides in recovery and adaptation.

2024 Roundtable Highlights

  • Over the past year, industry confidence has rebounded. RER’s Q4 Sentiment Index reached 73—a three-year high—and a 12-point jump from Q1 of this year. Despite ongoing challenges, the industry has demonstrated resilience and emerged stronger.
  • RER President & CEO Jeffrey DeBoer spoke about the industry’s 2025 priorities in a recent episode of the Leading Voices in Real Estate podcast, saying, “Real estate cuts across all aspects of our economy, and it’s what makes cities strong. You can’t find a time in history where nations have been strong without healthy cities. Right now, cities are struggling, and we want to help them back.”
  • Looking ahead to 2025, RER remains focused onadvancing policies that support liquidity, innovation, and adaptive reuse to ensure CRE remains a pillar of economic growth and community development.
  • 2025 Policy Priorities Survey: Next week we will be distributing our Policy Issues Survey to all members to gather input on our policy priorities for 2025.

Top Takeaways from 2024

Construction skyline
  • Key drivers of the industry’s growing confidence include easing interest rates and improving financial conditions, which have helped to stabilize asset values and encourage investment activity. By year-end, easing monetary policy and growing investor confidence have started to open up capital availability, with more progress expected in 2025. (Roundtable Weekly, Nov. 8)

  • Office-to-residential conversions saw a banner year, with more than 70 projects completed in 2024. Bolstered by the growing number of state and local incentive programs, 71 million sq. ft. (1.7% of U.S. office inventory) was undergoing or planned for conversion​ as of Q3. Property conversions will continue to see growing momentum in 2025, helping to alleviate elevated vacancy rates. (CBRE, Nov. 11)

  • Loan modifications and extensions, encouraged by regulators and supported by RER, have helped many distressed owners stabilize properties and avoid defaults. While 2024 was a challenging year for the office sector, markets have started to reach an inflection point as capital becomes more available, vacancy rates start to peak, return-to-office momentum grows, and transaction activity picks up. (Roundtable Weekly, Nov. 15)

  • Meanwhile, multifamily and industrial assets—especially data centers—continued to demonstrate strength, benefiting from robust tenant demand and the rapid expansion of AI-driven technologies. (CBRE, Dec. 11)

Prospects for 2025 and Trends to Watch

  • Economic growth: The CRE sector is poised to benefit from moderate economic growth and a more favorable interest rate environment. Investors are cautiously optimistic about improving liquidity and stabilizing valuations, which could unlock much-needed capital. (Commercial Observer, Dec. 10, CBRE, Dec. 11)

  • Office recovery: In San Francisco, office vacancy rates have dropped for the first time in four years—a sign that the office sector is beginning to turn the corner on the pandemic-era economy. Conversion activity is also expected to remain robust, supported by state and local incentives. (S.F. Chronicle, Dec. 16, GlobeSt., Dec. 17)

    • As RER Chair Emeritus William C. Rudin (Co-Executive Chairman, Rudin) recently told Squawk Box, “the demise of office and New York City are greatly exaggerated…there is capital, the CMBS market is back, the banks are coming back to the market,” indicating a welcome trend that could help drive an office revival across America’s downtowns.

  • The data center market will likely see explosive growth driven by artificial intelligence and cloud computing, although power constraints may limit development. Demand for data centers is expected to grow 160% by 2030, driving the buildout of the physical infrastructure needed to support the next digital revolution. (Goldman Sachs, May 14) (McKinsey, Oct. 29)

  • Political and regulatory shifts following the 2024 election—including potential changes to trade, immigration, and fiscal policies with a new Congress and presidential administration—could pose new opportunities or risks in 2025.  Collaborating with and educating policymakers on the impact these policies have on real estate will be crucial to ensuring that public policies support economic growth, job creation, housing affordability, and industry stability.

Heading into 2025, RER will continue advocating for policies that strengthen economic growth and capital availability while addressing industry challenges, including expanded tax credits for affordable housing and property conversions, permitting reform, and other initiatives that support a vibrant and resilient CRE sector.

Roundtable Employee Elizabeth A. Hoopes Retiring After 42 Years

Elizabeth “Liz” A. Hoopes retired on December 1, 2024, after a distinguished 42-year career with the National Realty Committee (NRC) and The Real Estate Roundtable.

  • Liz began her career with NRC in December 1982 as Systems Administrator, where she was instrumental in implementing and managing the foundational technology and membership database systems.
  • In 2015, she was promoted to Director, Information Systems, overseeing all technology infrastructure and providing critical support and solutions to ensure seamless operations at The Roundtable.
  • For the past forty years, Liz managed The Roundtable’s Political Action Committee (REALPAC), facilitating all donations, FEC reports, filings, compliance requirements, and more.
  • Recognizing her dedication, professionalism, and unwavering commitment to The Roundtable staff and membership throughout the years, the Board of Directors honored Liz with an engraved glass piece at our Fall Meeting last month.
  • Roundtable President & CEO Jeffrey DeBoer remarked, “Liz’s exceptional work ethic, focus, and dedication are unparalleled, making her truly irreplaceable. Her hard work in so many areas over the years has been invaluable and has helped the Roundtable achieve its mission.  We wish her continued success, happiness, and good health in the next chapter of her life.”
  • The Roundtable proudly acknowledges her significant professional achievements and congratulates her on her well-deserved retirement.

We are honored to have called her a friend and colleague all these years and wish her a wonderful retirement.

Fed Cuts Rates Again: Slower Path Ahead Amid Inflation Concerns

The Federal Reserve reduced its benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point Wednesday, bringing it to a target range of 4.25% to 4.50%. While the cut provides some relief to borrowers, the central bank signaled a more cautious pace for future rate reductions as inflationary pressures persist. (Axios, Dec. 18)

Why It Matters

  • The Fed’s decision reflects its effort to balance slowing inflation with a resilient economy.
  • Powell cited recent data, and not just potential policy changes, justified an adjustment to the inflation forecast. Additionally, the labor market has proven more resilient than officials anticipated when they began rate cuts in September. (WSJ, Dec. 18)
  • “We are at or near a point at which it will be appropriate to slow the pace of further adjustments,” Fed chair Jerome Powell told reporters at a press conference on Wednesday, referring to the decision to cut rates. (Press Conference, Dec. 18)
  • The Fed’s latest quarterly projections suggest a slower path to lower rates, with officials anticipating only two rate cuts in 2025, down from four or five predicted in September. (AP News, Dec. 18)
  • Beth Hammack, President of the Cleveland Federal Reserve, dissented from the decision, advocating for steady rates.

Looking Ahead

  • The incoming Trump administration is expected to pursue policies such as deregulation, tax cuts, and a growth-focused agenda.
  • While policies like deregulation and tax cuts could stimulate growth, tariffs and deportations threaten to exacerbate inflationary pressures.
  • Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that some officials have started factoring in “highly conditional estimates” of the potential economic impacts of Trump administration policies into their forecasts.
  • The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) emphasized that further cuts would depend on incoming data, stating it will assess “the extent and timing” of future adjustments. (Summary of Economic Projections, Dec. 18)
  • The Fed now projects inflation to reach 2.5% in 2025, higher than its September forecast of 2.1%, reflecting expectations of slower progress in curbing price increases. (CBS, Dec. 18)
  • For CRE, adaptability remains key as the macroeconomic environment evolves.

The Fed’s next meeting will be January 28-29, 2025, a week after inauguration, and RER’s all-member State of the Industry (SOI) Meeting on January 22-23. 

Roundtable Weekly Will Resume Publication on January 10, 2025

The Roundtable’s policy news digest will resume publication on Friday, January 10, 2025

Recent issues of Roundtable Weekly can be searched by keyword here.

Property Conversions Unlock New Potential in Real Estate

Property conversions are emerging as a critical tool to revive underutilized assets and address market demands. By transforming outdated office spaces into housing and mixed-use developments, the industry is seizing an opportunity to adapt and thrive.

Industry Voices Capture Momentum

  • These strategies offer a blueprint for addressing nationwide housing shortages, while revitalizing communities and modernizing infrastructure.
  • Former RER Chair Dan Neidich (CEO, Dune Real Estate Partners) likens the opportunities in office-to-residential conversions to a “fire hose,” emphasizing the urgency and scale of adapting underperforming spaces. (CNBC, Dec. 10)
  • RER Board Member Scott Rechler (Chairman & CEO, RXR) highlights that in New York, “70% of the vacancy is in 30% of the buildings,” indicating a concentration of underutilized office space prime for conversion. (CNBC Squawk Box, Nov. 22)
  • According to a recent CBRE report, 73 U.S. conversion projects have been completed this year, a slight increase from last year.
  • Looking forward, another 309 projects are planned or underway, with about 75% categorized as office-to-residential, placing the total count of units in the works at 38,000. (Wall Street Journal, Nov. 26)

Community Success Stories

  • New York City recently approved the “City of Yes” plan to create 80,000 new homes through adaptive reuse. NYC real estate leaders have supported this effort to streamline zoning and enable housing development, including RER Board Member Scott Rechler, who spoke in favor of the proposal on an NYU panel. (New York Times, Dec. 5 | Bisnow, Dec. 6)
  • In cities such as Columbus, St. Louis, and Pittsburgh across the Midwest, developers are converting outdated office spaces into vibrant residential communities and mixed-use developments, fostering neighborhood and downtown revitalization. (Business Journal, Dec. 3)
  • 2024 CommercialEdge research outlines New York City, San Francisco, Chicago, and Los Angeles as top cities with conversion feasible office space. The analysis shows that conversion in the top “30 central business districts and surrounding urban segments alone could mean turning roughly 167 million square feet of aging office space into modern residential and mixed-use properties.” (CommercialCafe, Dec. 10)

Navigating Challenges

  • Financing gaps, structural challenges, and community concerns remain significant hurdles for conversion projects. Regulatory obstacles such as outdated building codes, minimum unit sizes, and natural light requirements continue to increase costs of development. (Governing, Dec. 3)
  • Recognizing the need for change, cities are taking steps to encourage property conversions. Methods include reductions in approval times, exemptions from affordable housing rules, changes in building code requirements, and tax incentives or subsidies to developers. (Governing, Dec. 3)

The Roundtable urges federal policymakers to adopt incentives that support and promote these transformative local projects. These measures are vital to expanding access to affordable housing and meeting the nation’s growing demand.

Rep. French Hill to Chair Powerful House Financial Services Committee

Rep. French Hill (R-AR) was selected as the next chair of the powerful House Financial Services Committee, after securing the endorsement of the GOP steering committee in a closely watched race. (Axios, Dec. 12) (PoliticoPro, Dec.13)

Financial Policy Priorities

  • The House Financial Services Committee holds broad jurisdiction over monetary policy, housing, banking, and international finance. (Axios, Dec. 12)
  • As chair, Rep. Hill will play a vital role in shaping financial policy and working with President-elect Trump’s administration on priorities like banking oversight, GSE reform and cryptocurrency regulation.
  • In an interview with CNBC, Rep. Hill said his top priorities as chair are making community and commercial banking more competitive by rolling back rules, removing limits on investing to make it easier for companies to become publicly traded, and overhauling cryptocurrency regulation. (CNBC, Dec. 13) (PoliticoPro, Dec.13)
  • A former banker, Rep. Hill brings a wealth of experience to the role, having served as Financial Services vice chair and leader of the committee’s digital assets subcommittee.
  • Rep. Hill has advocated for several Roundtable priorities, including affordable housing measures, expanding capital formation, GSE reform, reauthorization of the National Flood Insurance Program, and terrorism risk insurance.

Trump Administration Eyes Changes to Financial Regulation

  • President-elect Trump advisers and officials from the newly founded Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) are exploring ways to consolidate or eliminate major bank regulators, including potentially abolishing the FDIC and transferring deposit insurance to the Treasury Department, according to people familiar with the matter. (WSJ, Dec. 12)
  • Such proposals, which would require congressional approval, mark a dramatic shift in federal oversight, though no major cabinet-level agency or regulatory body like the FDIC has ever been shuttered in Washington’s history. (Reuters, Dec. 13)

Looking Ahead

  • Rep. Hill has proposed initiatives to streamline financial regulations, create a “chief economist” role within the committee, and enhance member communication on financial policy issues. (The Hill, Dec. 12)
  • Rep. Maxine Waters (D-CA) will continue to serve as Ranking Democrat of the committee. (Politico, Dec. 12)
  • Whether the Trump administration’s bold proposals to restructure federal regulators gain traction remains uncertain, but Rep. Hill’s experience and focus on pragmatic policy solutions could provide a steady hand in this transformative period for U.S. financial services.

The House Republican Conference is anticipated to ratify the steering committee’s selection in the coming days.

GOP Leaders Debate Strategy for Reconciliation in 2025

Republicans are divided on how to approach a sweeping legislative package in 2025, as debates intensify between House and Senate GOP leaders considering whether to consolidate tax, border security, energy, and defense priorities into a single reconciliation bill or pursue a two-step approach. (TaxNotes, Dec. 12)

The Debate

  • The outcome will shape the GOP’s legislative strategy as they prepare to extend key provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) and deliver on other campaign promises.  
  • House Ways and Means Committee Chair Jason Smith (R-MO) is advocating for a single reconciliation bill that combines tax policy with border and energy reforms, arguing that this approach maximizes the slim Republican majority’s ability to pass ambitious legislation.
  • Rep. Smith’s stance has put him at odds with incoming Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD), who prefers a two-bill strategy—one focused on border security and energy early in the year, followed by a tax package later. (PoliticoPro, Dec. 11)
  • Sen. Thune, backed by Senate Budget Chair Lindsey Graham (R-SC) and incoming White House policy advisor Stephen Miller, see an early legislative win on immigration as critical to setting the stage for more complex tax negotiations. (Axios, Dec. 9)
  • Rep. Smith, contends that splitting the package could jeopardize tax policy priorities, including extensions of TCJA provisions set to expire at the end of 2025. (Roundtable Weekly, Dec. 6)
  • Failure to act on tax reform by the end of 2025 will lead to the expiration of many provisions of the 2017 tax law, resulting in tax increases for most individuals and some businesses. (Bloomberg, Dec. 3)

View from the Senate

  • While negotiations continue, Sen. Thune said he’s eyeing a “big early win” for President-elect Trump with a party-line push on border security, military and energy provisions. “Failure is not an option as far as tax is concerned.” (Politico, Dec. 11)

View from the House

  • House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA) said Tuesday House leadership is still deciding on a one- or two-bill strategy, and that they have been meeting with House and Senate members, including Sen. Thune and incoming Senate Finance Committee Chair Mike Crapo (R-ID). He warned it would be challenging to pass multiple budget resolutions. (TaxNotes, Dec. 11)
  • “Donald Trump is the whip right now,” Scalise said, describing how Trump would corral votes from House Republicans. “You don’t have to worry about me; I’m actually a nice guy. The guy at 1600 Pennsylvania is going to send out a tweet, a truth, or whatever, and it’s not going to be as nice.” (TaxNotes, Dec. 11)

Government Funding

  • Members on both sides of the aisle expect the government will stay open past the Dec. 20 shutdown deadline. (GlobeSt. Dec. 11)
  • Lawmakers anticipate leadership will settle on a stopgap measure extending through next March, though some Republicans in both chambers are advocating for a CR that ends sooner to expedite Congress’s funding work. (The Hill, Dec. 11).

Challenges Ahead

  • Narrow majorities: House Republicans can only afford to lose a handful of votes, making consensus critical. Senate Republicans face their own challenges under reconciliation rules requiring compliance with strict budget parameters. (NBC News, Dec. 12)
  • SALT deduction disputes: Republicans from high-tax states like New York and New Jersey are expected to push for raising the $10,000 cap on state and local tax (SALT) deductions, which could complicate efforts to unify the caucus.
  • Economist Stephen Moore, a member of President-elect Trump’s economic advisory transition team, told Bloomberg that expanding the tax write-off limit from $10,000 to $20,000 has been discussed. (TaxNotes, Dec. 11 | Bloomberg, Dec. 12)

What’s Next

  • House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) faces mounting pressure to navigate the narrow majority and align the party’s legislative strategy with President-elect Trump’s priorities.
  • Johnson has indicated flexibility in the approach, noting ongoing discussions with Trump and GOP leaders.
  • House Republicans are preparing to move swiftly in early January, with Budget Committee Chair Jodey Arrington (R-Texas) leading efforts on a budget resolution to lay the groundwork for reconciliation. Arrington has emphasized the need for a streamlined process, warning that delays could jeopardize Republican priorities. (TaxNotes, Dec. 12)
  • Passage of a budget resolution, which is the first key step in the reconciliation process, will be crucial to move forward—a challenge in itself given the slim GOP majority in the House.

The text of the funding bill is anticipated to be released over the weekend or early next week, enabling both chambers to pass the measure before lawmakers adjourn until January.

Real Estate Coalition Supports Affordable Housing Legislation

On Tuesday, a coalition of national real estate associations, including The Real Estate Roundtable (RER), wrote to Congress urging support for the Renewing Opportunity in the American Dream to Housing Act (ROAD) to Housing Act, (S. 5027 | H.R. 990). Introduced by Senator Tim Scott (R-SC) and Representative French Hill (R-AR), this comprehensive legislation aims to make housing more affordable and widely available. (Letter, Dec. 10)

Addressing Housing Affordability

  • The nation faces a persistent housing affordability crisis rooted in a critical shortage of supply. Addressing this challenge requires bipartisan solutions that foster collaboration across government agencies, industry stakeholders, and policymakers.
  • The coalition praised the bill as “a step forward in addressing the root cause of housing affordability challenges—supply shortages.” (Letter, Dec. 10)
  • The key pillars of the bill are increasing access to affordable housing, promoting opportunity, incentivizing local solutions, and ensuring proper oversight and accountability over federal housing programs. (Sen. Scott Press Release, Sept. 12)
  • Rep. French Hill (R-AR) said, “With the ROAD to Housing Act, we are taking real steps toward creating a housing market that benefits everyone—renters, homeowners, and families striving for stability. I thank my friend Senator Tim Scott for spearheading this legislation in the Senate.” (Rep. Hill Press Release, Oct. 15)
  • The letter emphasized the importance of bipartisan collaboration in crafting sustainable, effective housing policy solutions.

ROAD to Housing Act

  • The ROAD to Housing Act introduces targeted reforms and initiatives, including:
  • Enhanced financial literacy and housing counseling: Empowering individuals with tools to navigate homeownership and rental markets.
  • HUD’s Moving to Work (MTW) program: Fully authorizing this initiative to improve housing outcomes for low-income families. The MTW program helps public housing authorities and agencies implement innovative solutions that support affordable housing goals
  • Boosting affordable housing construction: Encouraging development through construction grants and support for small-dollar mortgage lending.
  • Opportunity Zones focus: Promoting affordable housing projects in designated Opportunity Zones to drive investment in underserved areas.
  • Federal coordination: Establishing regular dialogue between federal agencies and Congress to align housing policies with on-the-ground needs.

The Roundtable and its coalition partners will continue to educate and collaborate with policymakers to advance the ROAD to Housing Act and ensure that housing supply and affordability remain top priorities.

Outlook for 2025 Budget, Reconciliation, and Tax Legislation

Senate Republicans are mapping out an ambitious two-step reconciliation strategy for 2025, planning to first address defense, energy, and border security before tackling a tax package later in the year. The initial focus is to secure an early win that could help build momentum for the more complex task of extending the expiring provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA). (Tax Notes, Dec. 4)

Why It Matters

  • This approach marks a notable shift from House Republicans’ earlier plan to address tax issues within the first 100 days of President-elect Trump’s term. (Washington Post, Dec. 4)
  • Instead, Senate Republicans want to divide the legislative work to make each package more manageable, leveraging early victories to build momentum for harder battles. (PoliticoPro, Dec. 4)

Reconciliation Plan

  • GOP senators, including Thom Tillis (R-NC) and Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV), emphasized the importance of consensus and coordination within the party, acknowledging that a slim House majority could complicate passage. (Tax Notes, Dec. 4)
  • Sen. Capito noted that a smaller, earlier reconciliation package—focused on defense, energy, and border security—could help set the stage for tackling the more politically challenging tax bill.
  • The initial bill could include measures that all Republican factions can support, such as limited deficit reduction and targeted energy policy reforms.
  • Failure to act on tax reform by the end of 2025 will lead to the expiration of many provisions from the 2017 tax law, resulting in tax increases for most individuals and some businesses. (Bloomberg, Dec. 3)
  • Rep. Jason Smith (R-MO), chairman of the House’s Ways and Means committee, voiced his opposition to delaying tax reform under Sen. Thune’s plan, noting the difficulty of advancing two budget reconciliation packages, which are immune to filibusters in the Senate. (The Hill. Dec. 5 | CNBC, Dec. 4)
  • “The important thing is getting all the policies done as quickly as possible, and what we ultimately all agree on [is] we’re all going to have to be in unison on that, but no final decision has been made,” said House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA) regarding the reconciliation timeline. (PoliticoPro, Dec. 4)

View from Senate

  • Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA) pointed to the complexity of the tax package as the reason for its placement as the second bill.
  • “We want to help lower energy costs, we want to help the military. We want to hit the ground running,” said Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC). (The Hill, Dec. 4)
  • Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) cautioned against using reconciliation to increase spending, emphasizing the need to reduce overall expenditures.

What’s Next

  • Senate Republicans, led by incoming Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD), will work closely with House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) and the White House to finalize the contents and timing of both reconciliation bills.
  • Passage of a budget resolution, which is the first key step in the reconciliation process, will be crucial to move forward—a challenge in itself given the slim GOP majority in the House.

The two-bill reconciliation strategy reflects Senate Republicans’ cautious approach to the legislative calendar. By securing an earlier, more straightforward win, the GOP hopes to gain the momentum needed to navigate a complex tax debate later in 2025.