News Type: Roundtable Weekly

Federal Reserve Opts Out of Cutting Rates

Posted on by Abigail Grenadier

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held the federal funds target range steady at 4.25% to 4.50% on Wednesday, as widely anticipated, during its first meeting of 2025. This decision marks a departure from three consecutive rate cuts, which collectively lowered the target range by 100 basis points since September.

Fed’s Decision

  • Chair Fed Jerome Powell indicated that inflationary trends are headed in the right direction. The Fed maintained its assessment that the risks to its dual mandate—promoting a strong labor market and controlling inflation—remain “roughly in balance.” (ConnectCRE, Jan. 29)
  • The country’s inflation rate remains somewhat elevated above the Fed’s target of 2%. In projections released at last month’s meeting, most officials signaled they expected the Fed to lower rates in the year ahead, but were less certain over how many times the central bank would cut.
  •  Most of them penciled in two rate cuts this year, down from four cuts in projections released last September, assuming progress in lowering inflation continued. (CoStar, Jan.29) (WSJ, Jan.29)

Looking Ahead

  • Powell highlighted that future decisions will be guided by “real progress” in bringing inflation down toward the Fed’s target or “some weakness” in the labor market. (ConnectCRE, Jan.29) 
  • President Donald Trump’s plans to cut taxes, impose hefty tariffs on key imports and deport millions of immigrants who lack permanent legal status have generated unusual uncertainty about the course of the economy, inflation and interest rates. (USAToday, Jan. 27)
  • Thomas LaSalvia, Moody’s head of commercial real estate economics, told CoStar News in an email that “all eyes are now shifting away from Fed action and towards economic consequences of new administration policies.” He added that “moving forward, the extremity of those policy actions will be more influential on economic health.” (CoStar, Jan.29)

Pressure From The White House

  • Trump says he will “demand” lower interest rates in a virtual address last week to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.
  • When asked about the comments, Powell, sought to stay above the fray. “I’m not going to have any response or comment whatsoever on what the president said. It’s not appropriate for me to do so,” he said. “The public should be confident that we will continue to do our work as we always have, focusing on using our tools to achieve our goals.” (USNews, Jan.27)
  • In the wake of the Fed’s interest rate announcement, President Trump took to Truth Social: “Because Jay Powell and the Fed failed to stop the problem they created with Inflation, I will do it by unleashing American Energy production, slashing Regulation, rebalancing International Trade, and reigniting American Manufacturing, but I will do much more than stopping Inflation, I will make our Country financially, and otherwise, powerful again!” (TheHill, Jan.29)

What to Watch: Tariffs

  • White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters today President Trump plans to move forward with a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico starting tomorrow, and an additional 10% tariff on Chinese imports. (USA Today, Jan. 31)
  • Howard Lutnick, Trump’s Commerce Secretary Nominee, told the Senate during his confirmation hearing this week, that he advised Trump to impose country-by-country tariffs to restore trade “reciprocity” and vowed to tighten restrictions on China’s access to advanced AI technology. (Reuters, Jan. 29)
  • These tariffs could have significant repercussions for the U.S. economy, including housing affordability. Any tariffs on imported materials like steel, aluminum and lumber are likely to drive up costs for developers and impact efforts to address the housing shortage. (Roundtable Weekly, Jan. 24 | Nov. 27)

The Roundtable will continue to track coverage on interest rates and tariffs, and the implications for commercial real estate.

White House Moves on Plans to Slash Federal Funding, Staff, and Office Leases

Posted on by Abigail Grenadier
The White House

Funding freezes, employee buyouts and scrutiny of the federal office lease portfolio were among the actions taken by the White House and its Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) this week, as the Trump Administration acted on promises to shrink the federal government.

Federal Funding

  • On Monday, the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) issued a memo implementing a “Temporary Pause” on certain federal financial assistance programs. (Politico, Jan. 28)
  • This directive aimed to stop federal loans and grants “implicated” by seven recent executive orders pertaining to areas such as clean energy, DEI initiatives, transgender rights, and foreign aid.
  • By Wednesday, OMB issued a 2-sentence memo rescinding the temporary pause, with the goal to moot the lawsuit filed in the interim that resulted in a federal court restraining order placing the spending freeze on ice.  (NYT, Jan. 28) (The Hill, Jan. 29)
  • OMB’s reversal does not lift previous holds on funding of programs disfavored by the administration. Underlying Executive Orders remain in effect regarding the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris climate treaty, “unleashing” American energy resources with a preference for oil and gas development, and abandoning federal DEI programs.
  • The administration may also issue future spending freezes. (Politico, Jan. 29) The administration will continue to reshape federal spending policies through executive action, raising significant constitutional issues that could reach the U.S. Supreme Court. (ABA Journal, Jan. 29).

Federal Workforce

  • The Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announced a buyout program offering federal employees severance equal to eight months’ salary if they resign by February 6. (The Hill, Jan. 30)
  • Employees who stay do not have a guarantee of their job – but must return to full-time, in-office work as per an executive order signed by Trump on inauguration day. (Washington Post, Jan. 23)
  • DOGE, led by Elon Musk, estimates the push for “deferred resignations” could shrink the federal workforce by 5% to 10%. (AP News, Jan. 28) (Axios, Jan. 28)
  • Meanwhile, Trump has ousted Democratic appointees of the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) and the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC) before the expiration of their terms. Litigation challenging these firings is highly likely. (Federal News Network, Jan. 28).    

Federal Office Leases

  • DOGE is also reportedly focused on reducing federal government leases in private-sector buildings. Musk has installed “longtime associates” at the General Services Administration (GSA) to reduce the footprint of U.S. owned and leased real estate. (NextGov, Jan. 30)
  • Musk’s visit yesterday to GSA headquarters could “presage more cost-cutting efforts” to “right-size the Federal real estate portfolio of more than 7,500 leases.” (New York Times, Jan. 30)
  • A recent Trepp analysis quantifies the impact of GSA-leased space in the Chicago, Dallas, Los Angeles, New York City, Washington, DC, and other metro areas where federal tenancy accounts for significant percentages of total office inventory.
  • Just as federal workers are returning to offices—prompted by a Trump Executive Order signed after his inauguration—the “cumulative damage” of canceling federal leases under a DOGE-led initiative “would be severe.” (GlobeSt, Jan. 20).

Looking Ahead

  • Ongoing budget reconciliation discussions on Capitol Hill suggest that further government funding cuts remain a possibility as part of broader fiscal policy negotiations. The situation remains fluid, with potential implications for various federal programs.
  • On Wednesday, House Republicans outlined their budget blueprint, setting fiscal targets and potential cuts as they prepare to draft a reconciliation package next week. (Politico, Jan. 29)
  • However, Republicans remain divided on strategy for advancing President Trump’s agenda. House Republicans favor a single-bill approach, while Senate Majority Leader John Thune indicates that his conference has developed an initial budget as part of a two-step plan to pass border security measures, tax cuts, and other priorities. (Politico, Jan. 29)

The Roundtable will continue to stay informed about further developments as the administration’s policies evolve.

Momentum Grows for In-Person Work Across Public and Private Sectors

Posted on by Abigail Grenadier

President Donald Trump’s executive order requiring federal employees to return to in-person work, combined with similar legislative efforts in Congress and private-sector return-to-office mandates, could significantly impact Washington, D.C.’s commercial real estate market.

Federal Mandate May Upend Greater Washington Market

  • On day one of his second term, President Trump signed a mandate requiring all federal workers to return to full-time in-person work. (Washington Post, Jan. 23)
  • “Heads of all departments and agencies in the executive branch of Government shall, as soon as practicable, take all necessary steps to terminate remote work arrangements and require employees to return to work in-person at their respective duty stations on a full-time basis, provided that the department and agency heads shall make exemptions they deem necessary,” the executive order reads. (BisNow, Jan. 20)
  • The order could significantly affect the office market in the Greater Washington region, which is still grappling with economic challenges in the commercial real estate sector and a sluggish recovery in downtown activity post-pandemic. This past summer, D.C. recorded its highest-ever office vacancy rate. (WJLA, Aug. 12)
  • The executive order coincides with reports that the administration is considering selling two-thirds of the federal government’s office portfolio to the private sector and terminating millions of square feet of leased commercial space. (WSJ, Jan. 21)

Mandate Follows a History of Legislative Attempts

  • This executive order aligns with similar efforts from Republicans in Congress to legislate return-to-work mandates for federal employees.
  • On January 16th, Rep. James Comer (R-KY), chairman of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee, reintroduced the SHOW UP Act, aimed at returning the federal workforce to pre-pandemic telework levels. The bill cleared the House along party lines early in the last Congress, but the Senate didn’t take up the companion bill. (FNN, Jan. 17)
  • Rep. Andy Biggs (R-AZ) has reintroduced the Return to Work Act, a bill that—similarly to the SHOW UP Act—would return federal employees to the telework schedules they had before the COVID-19 pandemic. (FNN, Jan. 17)
  • RER has consistently emphasized that federal policies promoting remote work undermine the health of cities, local tax bases, and small businesses, and urged policymakers to end government policies that encourage remote working arrangements for federal employees. (Roundtable Weekly, Dec. 2023)

Private Sector Efforts

  • Leaders in the private sector are also driving the return-to-office momentum.
  • In a January memo, JPMorgan Chase announced that all employees would be required to return to in-person work by March. ‘Now is the right time to solidify our full-time in-office approach,’ CEO Jamie Dimon and other executives wrote in the company-wide message, emphasizing that they believe this approach is the most effective way to operate the business. (Bloomberg, Jan. 7)
  • Amazon also began 2025 by requiring its nearly 350,000 corporate employees to return to in-person work, including those at its Seattle headquarters and the newly established HQ2 in National Landing. (WMTV, Jan. 2)

Looking Ahead

Despite hesitations, the return-to-office mandates sweeping across both the public and private sectors signal a notable industry shift for commercial real estate and a potential revitalization of urban office hubs. RER strongly supports return-to-office efforts as critical to thriving cities and communities, and looks forward to working alongside our public and private sector partners to drive vibrant downtowns and economies across the country.

Industry Leaders Convene for 2025 State of the Industry Meeting

Posted on by Abigail Grenadier

This week, The Real Estate Roundtable’s (RER) State of the Industry meeting brought together policymakers, industry leaders, and experts to discuss key policy issues shaping debates in Washington and impacting the economy and commercial real estate industry.

2025 State of the Industry Meeting

  • Roundtable Chair Kathleen McCarthy (Global Co-Head, Blackstone Real Estate) opened the meeting by welcoming attendees, setting the stage for discussions on industry priorities and advocacy opportunities, and highlighting key member priorities for the year ahead.
  • RER President & CEO Jeffrey DeBoer highlighted the organization’s unique strengths in policy advocacy, which is known for its trusted, fact-based, and data-driven approach. He also acknowledged members for participating in the annual policy issues survey, which revealed widespread concern about tariffs and strong support for priorities like tax reform, housing incentives, reducing regulatory barriers, energy infrastructure, insurance, and cybersecurity resiliency.

Meeting Speakers

  • Geopolitical expert John Sitilides (Principal, Trilogy Advisors LLC; National Security Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy Research Institute) gave a presentation on “Washington & the World: The New Geopolitics of Great Power Competition” and discussed the current geopolitical dynamics and vulnerabilities affecting global commerce and energy.
  • Rep. Darin LaHood (R-IL) (Member, House Committees on Ways and Means; and  Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence) discussed the U.S.-China economic relationship, extending the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) tax cuts, housing incentives such as the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC), opportunity zones, and property conversions.
  • Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-NY) (Member,House Committee on Ways and Means) stressed the need for bipartisanship to address housing shortages, restore state and local tax (SALT) deductions, advance immigration reform, and revitalize cities.
  • Robert Costa (Chief Election & Campaign Correspondent, CBS News) shared his insight on the current political environment and his experiences with the past and current administrations.
  • Rep. French Hill (R-AR) (Chair of the House Financial Services Committee) spoke to RER’s Joint Real Estate Capital Policy Advisory Committee (RECPAC) and Research Committee on his policy priorities for the 119th Congress.

Committee Meetings

Joint Real Estate Capital Policy Advisory Committee (RECPAC) and Research Committee

  • During a joint meeting, Research Co-Chair Spencer Levy (Global Chief Client Officer & Senior Economic Advisor, CBRE) and Darin Mellot (CBRE) discussed the current real estate conditions and the outlook for real estate credit and capital markets. Working Group Chair Michael Lascher (Global Head of Real Estate Debt Capital Markets, Blackstone) led a discussion on office financing with David Bouton (Citibank), Michael Maturo (RXR Realty), and James Million (CBRE). Will Skinner (Blackstone Credit and Insurance) presented on the growing adoption of private credit by insurance companies and the interplay with alternative asset managers. (Agenda & Speakers)

Tax Policy Advisory Committee (TPAC)

  • TPAC Chair Joshua M. Parker (Chairman & Chief Executive Officer, Ancora L&G) and TPAC Vice Chair David Friedline (Partner, Deloitte Tax LLP) led panels on the status of tax legislation in Congress and the pending expiration of the TCJA, property conversions, partnerships, pass-throughs, partnership basis-shifting rules, and SECA-limited partners tax dispute. (Agenda & Speakers)

Sustainability Policy Advisory Committee (SPAC)

  • SPAC Vice Chairs Ben Myers (Vice President, Sustainability, BXP) and Katie Rothenberg (Vice President, ESG, Avalon Bay Communities, Inc.) led discussions on public-private partnership opportunities with US-DOE, utilities, refrigerant emissions, and building performance standards. (Agenda & Speakers)

Homeland Security Task Force (HSTF)

  • Co-Chair Amanda S. Mason (Executive Director, Global Intelligence, Related Companies) highlighted the overall mission of the HSTF, and led a series of discussions on areas of concerns for the commercial facilities sector. Bruce Hoffman (Senior Fellow for Counterterrorism and Homeland Security, Council on Foreign Relations) provided an overview of implications of recent terrorist incidents here and abroad, and the evolving terrorism landscape. Trent Frazier (CISA) and Tobi Rosenzweig, (U.S. Department of State) discussed the current geopolitical tensions in Europe and both short-term and long-term risks. Ken Kurz (COPT Defense Properties)and Marcelle Lee (Equinix) led a panel on the evolving landscape of cyber and physical threats. Cathy Lanier (National Football League), Hon. Lucian Niemeyer (Building Cyber Security), and Thomas Warrick (The Future of DHS Project) hosted a roundtable discussion on recent terrorism incidents, and natural catastrophes.(Agenda & Speakers)

Next on RER’s FY 2025 meeting calendar is the Spring Meeting on April 7-8. The Spring Meeting is restricted to Roundtable-level members only. 

Trump’s First 100 Days: Top Commercial Real Estate Policies to Watch

Posted on by Abigail Grenadier

President Donald Trump’s second term is rapidly taking shape, with sweeping executive orders, quick nominations and bold policy announcements advancing in the first few days of his second administration. From tax policy to housing, immigration, and energy initiatives, the commercial real estate sector faces a dynamic and fast-changing landscape.

Tax Policy

  • TCJA Renewal: Efforts to extend key provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) are a key priority for the Trump administration and Republicans in Congress, with significant implications for commercial real estate.
  • A number of RER priorities are at stake, including maintaining the reduced tax rate on capital gains, extending Opportunity Zones and the Section 199A deduction, safeguarding like-kind exchanges and enacting federal tax incentives for property conversions to address the housing shortage. (Roundtable Weekly, Jan. 10)
  • The content of the reconciliation package continues to be heavily debated, with multiple areas of intra-party disagreement among Republicans to overcome in order to reach a deal. Concerns about pay-fors, the growing debt, budget cuts and proposals to eliminate the state and local tax deduction (SALT) remain. (Politico, Jan. 22)
  • RER President & CEO Jeffrey DeBoer appeared on Marcus & Millichap’s 2025 Economic & CRE Outlook webinar with a panel of industry leaders discussing the macro environment, the potential policies of the new administration and tariffs, affordable housing, tax policy expectations and more.

Tariffs

  • Proposed Tariffs: Trump has signaled a desire to implement sweeping tariffs, including a 25% tariff on goods from Mexico and Canada that could go into effect on Feb. 1. Trump has also considered a universal 20% tariff on all imports and a 60% tariff on China. (CNN, Jan. 21)

  • These measures are aimed at boosting domestic manufacturing and addressing trade imbalances but could have ripple effects on construction costs and material availability. Any tariffs on imported materials like steel, aluminum and lumber are likely to drive up costs for developers and impact efforts to address the housing shortage. (BisNow, Jan. 17)

  • The scale and scope of the President’s tariff plans are in flux. Trump’s advisors have reportedly considered a phased-in tariff approach. It’s also possible that Trump makes use of the White House’s exemption authority to protect certain industries or goods deemed vital. (Bloomberg, Jan. 13)

Regulatory Work

  • President Trump also signed an executive order freezing all ongoing regulatory work across the federal government, halting the proposal or publication of new rules until reviewed and approved by his administration.
  • The freeze delays the effective date of recently published rules by 60 days, allowing time to decide which Biden-era regulations to keep, rewrite, or discard. (National Law Review, Jan. 23)
  • As with many other parts of the U.S. financial regulatory framework, the pending Basel III Endgame proposal may end up being reproposed with a capital neutral scheme, giving a potential boost to liquidity and credit capacity under the new Trump administration. 

Disaster Aid and NFIP Extension

  • California Fires: Congress and the new administration will soon need to provide billions of dollars in aid to assist those affected by the Los Angeles wildfires. The catastrophe could reach up to $275 billion, with then of thousands of homes and businesses will need to be rebuilt, making federal assistance essential. (Roundtable Weekly, Jan. 17)
  • NFIP: The increasing severity of natural disasters—including the devastating hurricanes last year—has increased the importance of the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), whichis set to expire on March 14 unless reauthorized. The Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee held a hearing on Thursday to discuss the program’s renewal. (Politico, Jan. 22)

Housing

  • Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Privatization: Trump’s team is expected to resume efforts to privatize the government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs), which could significantly reshape multifamily financing markets.
  • Trump has nominated Bill Pulte, to lead the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), which oversees the GSEs—a move experts say is part of Trump’s push towards privatization. (CRE Daily, Jan. 17)
  • Deregulation to Spur Housing Development: Trump has pledged to roll back environmental and building regulations that hinder housing construction. This includes streamlining permitting processes, relaxing restrictions and accelerating project timelines.
  • Trump’s nominee for the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), Scott Turner, has pledged to cut regulations that he says are stifling development. These efforts aim to increase housing supply, particularly in high-demand markets. (BisNow, Jan. 17)

Immigration and Labor

  • Deportations: Trump’s plans for mass deportations could have significant effects on the housing industry. Immigrants make up over 25% of the construction laborer workforce in the U.S., an industry where more workers are sorely needed—especially if affordable housing goals are to be met. (Bisnow, Jan. 17)
  • Depending on the extent of Trump’s deportation plans, CRE projects may face rising costs and delays if the construction workforce is severely affected. (NBC News, Jan. 21)
  • According to the Associated Builders and Contractors, the construction industry needs 439,000 new workers this year to meet rising demand. The need for construction resources is urgent, with Los Angeles requiring rebuilding after devastating fires and a nationwide surge in data center construction on the horizon. (Axios, Jan. 24)

Energy and Infrastructure

  • Emergency Powers: On the day Trump took office, he declared an energy emergency—giving the White House new authority to speed up the manufacture of certain products under the Defense Production Act, issue waivers on certain gasoline restrictions and restrict energy trade, among other powers—likely in service of Trump’s stated effort to “drill, baby, drill.” (The Hill, Jan. 20)
  • Data Centers: Trump also announced a $500 billion “Stargate” initiative designed to expand AI-focused data center infrastructure. The executive order prioritizes the use of fossil fuels to power these facilities and streamlines permitting processes for large-scale projects. (AP News, Jan. 22)
  • The investment could help hasten the buildout of high-demand data centers, which are limited by the availability of energy resources and infrastructure. (BisNow, Jan. 22)

Looking Ahead

With the whirlwind of activity coming out of the Trump administration and Congress, RER will continue to proactively evaluate policy developments as legislative efforts and White House implementation of executive orders progress.

Incoming Trump Administration Prepares Energy Policy Shift

Posted on by Abigail Grenadier

This week’s confirmation hearings shed light on the Trump Administration’s ambitious energy agenda, including plans to expand American energy production, streamline project approvals, and explore a carbon tariff on imports. (PoliticoPro, Jan. 16)

“All of the Above” Energy Policy

  • President-elect Trump has prioritized “drill, baby, drill” as a cornerstone of his agenda, emphasizing energy independence and dominance through increased domestic oil and gas production.
  • Chris Wright, the Energy Secretary nominee, told the Senate Energy Committee on Wednesday that he would use the role to “unleash American energy at home and abroad” if confirmed. (Reuters, Jan. 15)
  • Wright said in his opening statement that he would focus on three objectives: removing barriers for energy projects, accelerating innovation by the national laboratories, and advancing U.S. energy domestically and abroad. (Roll Call, Jan. 16)
  • North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum, the Interior Secretary nominee, said at his Thursday confirmation hearing that the U.S. must expand domestic energy production and electricity generation to meet growing demand, particularly from AI technologies. (Politico, Jan. 16 | Roll Call, Jan. 16 )
  • Burgum supports an “all-of-the-above” approach that would utilize renewables and fossil fuels.  Trump has also tapped Burgum to lead a White House-based energy council that would coordinate policy across the federal government. (Politico, Jan. 9)
  • Former Representative Lee Zeldin, the nominee for EPA Administrator, said at his Thursday hearing he would work in a bipartisan manner with career staff to fulfill the agency’s mission. (PoliticoPro, Jan. 16 | The Hill, Jan. 16)
  • Zeldin vowed to address climate change without “suffocating the economy,” and committed to private sector collaboration to “promote common sense, smart regulation.” (NBC News, Jan. 16 | Washington Post, Jan. 16)

Carbon Tariff Proposal

  • During his Thursday confirmation hearing, Treasury Secretary nominee Scott Bessent (see Policy Landscape story above) expressed interest in a carbon tariff on imports, suggesting it could be part of a broader Trump administration strategy to raise revenue, counter unfair trade practices, and boost negotiating leverage.
  • Bessent indicated the potential for such measures to align with the administration’s broader trade and economic goals. (PoliticoPro, Jan. 16)
  • Recently, Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) proposed a bill, the “Foreign Pollution Fee Act” that would impose a “foreign pollution fee” on imported carbon-intensive products – including construction materials. (E&E News, Dec. 12)
  • The bill’s co-sponsor, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), spoke about the bill at Bessent’s hearing. “If you want to clean up the environment, a carbon fee seems to be a good way to do it, to punish China and India for bad carbon practices,” Graham said. (Politico, Jan. 16)
  • The Roundtable submitted comments today on the Foreign Pollution Fee Act. The letter raises concerns regarding the impact of a carbon tariff on affordable housing constriction, rebuilding after natural disasters, and technical issues on calculating “indirect emissions” associated with product manufacturing.

Other Energy News This Week

  • President Biden issues executive order to advance U.S. artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure: President Biden issued an executive order directing agencies to lease federal land for “gigawatt-scale” to support new data center construction. (AP News, WH Press Release, Jan. 14)
  • 179D energy efficiency tax deduction: The Energy Department (DOE) launched the 179D Portal, offering tools for new commercial construction and retrofits to estimate energy savings and qualify for potential federal tax incentives. (DOE Press Release, Jan. 14)
  • California wild fires raise electricity costs: The Los Angeles wildfires, which caused over $250 billion in damages and severely impacted the region’s electrical infrastructure, have driven a nearly 50% increase in California’s residential electricity rates since 2019, raising concerns about the fairness of passing these wildfire-related costs onto customers. (Politico, Jan. 15)
  • Maryland building emissions standards lawsuit: A coalition of trade organizations filed a federal lawsuit arguing that the Maryland Building Energy Performance Standards (BEPS) is illegal because it is “pre-empted” due to its conflict with federal laws. The Maryland law mandates large buildings to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20% within five years and achieve net-zero emissions by 2040. The lawsuit claims the rules exacerbate the housing crisis, strain the power grid, and violate consumer choice. (Baltimore Banner, Jan. 14 | (Baltimore Sun, Jan. 16)

House Freedom Caucus Members Propose Ending Deductibility of State and Local Business Taxes

Posted on by Abigail Grenadier

This week, House Freedom Caucus Members proposed ending the ability of businesses to deduct their state and local business and property taxes on their federal income tax returns.  (Politico, Jan. 15)

Why It Matters

  • The proposal was raised as a potential offset for relief from the SALT cap on individuals. 
  • The proposal was also included in a “menu” of potential policy options prepared by the House Budget Committee for tax and budget reconciliation legislation.  (PoliticoPro, Jan. 17)
  • The Budget Committee has a key role in setting the overall size of any reconciliation bill, but the actual details of tax changes fall under the jurisdiction of the House Ways and Means Committee.

Industry & Congressional Response

  • “Property taxes and other state-level business taxes are a basic cost of doing business.  Denying the deductibility of these business taxes is nonsensical and would be devastating to American businesses, and especially U.S. real estate.  The purpose of the income tax is to measure and tax income.  Under the proposal, we would no longer have an income tax, we would have a tax on gross revenue.  It would penalize existing property owners, artificially distort business decisions, and raise flashing red lights for anyone even considering a long-term capital investment in the United States,” said Jeffrey DeBoer, President and CEO of The Real Estate Roundtable.
  • Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) addressed the proposal on the Senate floor earlier today.  (Senate Democrats, Jan. 17)
  • “There is no scenario under God’s green Earth that New York taxpayers will ever accept another unfair SALT cap like the House Freedom Caucus proposes….I will do everything I can, first to remove the entire SALT cap tax, and second to never let a new proposal that for the first time imposes the SALT cap on businesses, small and large, to be put into effect. I’m going to do everything I can to fight this dastardly proposal,” said the Senator.
  • The House Freedom Caucus is one of many factions in the House Republican Conference that will have significant leverage over any tax changes in 2025 due to Republicans’ extraordinary slim majority in the House.

House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Jason Smith (R-MO) and House SALT Caucus Co-Chair Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-NY) are scheduled to address Roundtable members at the State of the Industry Meeting next week.

Assessing the Impact of the LA Fires and Insurance Markets

Posted on by Abigail Grenadier

The fires in Los Angeles this week have caused tremendous damage to lives and property, demonstrating how risks from natural catastrophes are a growing challenge to both people and industries across the country. National policy solutions are needed to prepare for the future and effectively manage natural catastrophe risk.  (Associated Press, Jan. 11 | RAND, Jan.16)

Historic Damages

  • The devastating fires tearing through Los Angeles are poised to become the costliest in US history and are fueling an insurance crisis in California, raising questions about how millions of homeowners will secure coverage against future disasters. (Associated Press, Jan. 11)
  • Damages from the LA fires could reach up to $275 billion after the blazes ripped through some of Los Angeles County’s wealthiest neighborhoods. (Orange County Register, Jan. 16)
  • The staggering costs stem from fires hitting densely populated areas filled with some of the nation’s priciest real estate, says Accuweather’s Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter. (Associated Press, Jan. 11)

Insurance Impact

  • The wildfires that destroyed homes in multiple sections of the Los Angeles area will test California’s efforts to stabilize the state’s insurance marketplace after many insurers stopped issuing residential policies due to the high fire risk. (KNBC, Jan.10)
  • The California FAIR Plan was created in 1968 and provides basic fire insurance coverage for high-risk properties when traditional companies would not. (NYT, Jan.14 | Bloomberg, Jan. 15)
  • Some are worried that the FAIR Plan won’t have enough funds to cover the damages, but FAIR Plan spokesperson Hillary Mclean assured the public that “the FAIR Plan has payment mechanisms in place, including reinsurance, to ensure all covered claims are paid.” (KNBC, Jan.10)
  • The U.S. Treasury’s Federal Insurance Office (FIO) released a report Thursday, showing homeowners insurance costs are rising faster than inflation, with premiums 82% higher in high-risk ZIP codes due to climate-related disasters. (Treasury News Release, Jan. 16)
  • The report based on extensive data from 2018-2022, highlights increasing challenges for homeowners and insurers alike, as nonrenewal rates and claims costs surge in areas most affected by severe weather events. (CNBC, Jan. 16)

Policymaker and Industry Reaction

  • Policymakers are working to streamline the permitting process to expedite recovery and are actively monitoring the insurance marketplace. Senator Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI) told CBS News “We will be watching to see whether the collapse of a trembling home insurance market accelerates after this added shock”. (CBS News, Jan.16)
  • California Governor Gavin Newsom has temporarily suspended permitting and review requirements under the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) and the California Coastal Act. The move aims to expedite the rebuilding process for fire victims, enabling faster restoration of homes and businesses, Newsom said. (GlobeSt., Jan. 14)
  • The proliferation of natural catastrophe threats has raised concerns about commercial insurance coverage for real estate.
  • Republicans on the Senate Banking Committee, led by Senators John Kennedy (R-LA) and Mike Rounds (R-SD), are drafting legislation to reform the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) and provide broader disaster relief for victims of catastrophes like wildfires, floods, and storms. (The Hill, Jan. 14)
  • The proposed initiative aims to expand and improve disaster coverage without relying on taxpayer subsidies, addressing long-term issues with the NFIP and creating a more comprehensive program for natural disasters.

Real Estate Industry Response

  • The real estate industry continues to lead in the response and recovery to these fires.
  • A group of 15 leading multifamily firms and commercial real estate industry groups has quickly banded together to support residents and rebuild Los Angeles following the wildfires that struck the city. RER members, including Cityview, Lincoln Property Company, and Marcus & Millichap support the coalition. (ConnectCRE, Jan. 16)

Natural catastrophe insurance will be discussed at RER’s upcoming Homeland Security Task Force and Risk Management Committee Meeting next week at our 2025 State of the Industry Meeting in Washington, DC.

HUD Nominee Scott Turner Outlines Housing Policy Priorities in Senate Hearing

Posted on by Abigail Grenadier

Scott Turner, President-elect Donald Trump’s nominee for Secretary of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), emphasized the transformative potential of Opportunity Zones (OZs) and collaboration with the private sector during his Senate nomination hearing on Thursday. (The Hill, Jan. 16)

Senate Hearing Recap

  • At the hearing, members of the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs asked HUD nominee Scott Turner how he would address pressing housing challenges, including the affordable housing crisis, the rising rate of homelessness, and HUD reform. (Turner Testimony)

  • There is an estimated shortage of 5.5 million housing units, resulting in high rents and home prices in many parts of the country. Additionally, HUD released its 2024 Annual Homelessness Assessment Report, which found an 18 percent increase in the estimated point-in-time count of homeless individuals from 2023 to 2024.

  • Speaking on the housing challenges facing the country, Turner said, “We have a housing crisis in our country. We have the American people and families that are struggling every day…HUD, if you will, is failing at its most basic mission, and that has to come to an end.”

  • Turner continued, “As a country, we’re not building enough housing. We need millions of homes, all kinds of homes, multifamily, single-family, duplex, condo, manufacturing housing, you name it…I believe that we need to bring HUD staff back to the office to do the job and empower them to serve the American people.”

HUD Nominee’s Policy Priorities

  • Turner, who previously ran the White House Opportunity and Revitalization Council during Trump’s first term, highlighted Opportunity Zones, public-private partnerships, and tailored local solutions as key elements of his plan to address the housing crisis.

  • As executive director of the Council, Turner was responsible for carrying out the implementation of Opportunity Zones, which were passed as part of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (TCJA).

  • The Roundtable—along with 22 other real estate organizations—urged the Senate to approve Turner’s nomination, writing in a Jan. 14 letter to the Senate committee that Turner is well-equipped to lead as Secretary of HUD.

The Power of Opportunity Zones

  • RER has long championed Opportunity Zones (OZs) as a transformative tool to stimulate economic growth and increase the supply of affordable housing in low-income areas. By creating tax incentives for investments in designated low-income census tracts, OZs have channeled investment into areas most in need.

  • Since its inception, the Opportunity Zones program has raised nearly $100 billion in private capital, catalyzed the creation of more than 500,000 jobs, and spurred multifamily housing developments in underserved areas. 20% of multifamily units under construction were located in OZs as of early 2024. (The New Localism, Jan. 9)

  • Given the program’s success, prominent experts, including Bruce Katz (Founding Director of the Nowak Metro Finance Lab at Drexel University) and Steven G. Glickman (co-founder and former CEO of the Economic Innovation Group, former senior economic adviser in the Obama White House) have advocated for making OZs a permanent part of the tax code to ensure its long-term benefits. (Governing, Jan. 2)

  • RER has called on Congress to improve and extend the program, which is set to expire along with other key provisions of the TCJA at the end of this year.

RER will continue to work with policymakers in Congress and officials at HUD to build on the success of programs like Opportunity Zones. Through bipartisan policies that harness the power of the private sector to significantly increase the supply of affordable housing, the U.S. can make meaningful progress toward ending the housing crisis.

This Week on Capitol Hill: Confirmation Hearings and Tax Policy Debates

Posted on by Abigail Grenadier

This week, the Senate conducted confirmation hearings for several of President-elect Donald Trump’s Cabinet nominees, providing critical insights into the nominees’ perspectives and potential policy directions on real estate, housing, the economy, and tax policy under the incoming administration.

Senate Confirmation Hearings

  • Scott Bessent – Nominee for Secretary of the Treasury: Treasury nominee Scott Bessent faced bipartisan scrutiny during his Senate Finance Committee confirmation hearing over tax policy, tariffs, and China on Thursday. (Axios, Jan 17)
  • He emphasized the importance of extending the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, stating, “This is the single most important economic issue of the day.” (Roll Call, Jan. 16 | PoliticoPro, Jan. 16)
  • “We must make permanent the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and implement new pro-growth policies to reduce the tax burden on American manufacturers service workers and seniors,” Bessent said in his testimony. He also praised the Opportunity Zones program as a “resounding success,” highlighting its potential to address housing challenges, promote inner-city redevelopment, and support rural growth. (Politico, Jan, 16)
  • He also called for spending cuts and shifts in existing taxes to offset the costs that extending the tax cuts would add to the federal deficit. (AP News, Jan. 16)
  • Lee Zeldin, nominee for EPA Administrator, Chris Wright, nominee for Energy Secretary, and Doug Burgum, nominee for Housing and Urban Development Secretary, also testified this week and are expected to be confirmed. (see Energy story below)
  • Sean Duffy – Nominee for Secretary of the Department of Transportation: Appearing before the Senate Commerce Committee, Duffy emphasized his commitment to safety and pledged to streamline regulatory processes that delay infrastructure projects. Promising to uphold the 2021 infrastructure law, he stated, “I commit to implementing the law,” and vowed to expedite funding distribution, addressing delays to ensure critical projects move forward efficiently. (Politico, Jan. 17)

Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) Nominee

  • On Thursday, Trump announced he would nominate Bill Pulte for Director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA). (HousingWire | Reuters Jan. 16)
  • If confirmed, Pulte would oversee Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) standing behind roughly half of the U.S. residential mortgage market.
  • The Trump administration is expected to pursue a plan to release Fannie and Freddie from government control. (GlobeSt., Jan. 17)
  • GOP lawmakers have raised the idea of including language to mandate Fannie and Freddie’s release in this year’s reconciliation package as a way to offset the cost of extending expiring tax cuts. (Politico, Jan. 16)

House Ways and Means Committee Hearing – TCJA

  • The tax debate kicked off Tuesday with the House Committee on Ways and Means’ first hearing on extending key provisions of the TCJA led by Chairman Jason Smith (R-MO). (Fox News, Jan. 14)
  • At the hearing, lawmakers discussed expiring provisions of the TCJA including the SALT deduction, Section 199-A, opportunity zones, and child tax credits.
  • Congress faces the dual challenge of addressing expiring tax provisions while managing fiscal pressures. While bipartisan cooperation is possible on certain issues like affordable housing, divisions over business tax rates, SALT deductions, and the debt ceiling could stall progress.

What’s Next: RER President & CEO Jeffrey DeBoer will be on Marcus & Millichap’s 2025 Economic & CRE Outlook webinar next Thursday, January 23. He will be joined by Mark Zandi and a panel of industry leaders discussing the macro environment and the potential policies of the new administration and key trends on jobs, the FED outlook, tax policy expectations and more. (Register)