Category: Tariffs

Tariffs: CRE Faces Cost Pressures

Posted on by Abigail Grenadier

President Trump signed a memorandum Thursday directing his advisers to calculate new global tariff levels, a move that could disrupt international trade norms and spark intense negotiations, in addition to his recently increased duty on steel and aluminum.

State of Play

  • The directive considers not just existing tariffs but also foreign taxes, subsidies, and exchange rate policies that Trump views as “unfair.” His goal is to balance trade relationships and push companies to shift manufacturing back to the U.S. (AP News, Feb. 13)
  • The reciprocal tariffs will not be immediately imposed, but will be customized for each foreign trading partner, based on five different areas: tariffs the nation imposes on U.S. products, unfair taxes imposed, cost to U.S. businesses and consumers from another country’s policies, exchange rates, and any other practices the trade representative’s office determines is unfair. (The Hill, Feb. 13)
  • The proposed 25% duty on steel and aluminum announced Monday, set to take effect March 12, 2025, has raised concerns about higher construction costs, supply chain disruptions, and broader economic impacts on commercial real estate. (Bloomberg, Feb. 10)
  • Trump’s trade adviser Peter Navarro said the measures would help U.S. steel and aluminum producers and shore up America’s economic and national security. (Reuters, Feb.11)

Commercial Real Estate Impact

  • Tariffs may present several challenges for commercial real estate, including increased construction costs, potential project delays, and heightened uncertainty among investors.
  • Higher tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminum will increase structural material costs, while tariffs on Canadian lumber will impact framing and finishing costs.
  • Additionally, any trade disruptions with Mexico could further strain budgets by limiting access to affordable cement, steel, and glass. (Capright, Feb.5)
  • Many commercial real estate projects depend on materials imported from Canada, including softwood lumber for framing and steel for structural components. With tariffs in place, developers are seeing their material costs surge, leading to increased project costs and delayed developments. (InvestinginCRE, Feb.7)
  • The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) projects that these tariffs could raise the cost of imported construction materials by $3-4 billion, depending on the specific rates. This increase may affect builders’ ability to deliver new projects and could have implications for housing affordability. (NAHB | GlobeSt, Feb.11)
  • Tariffs are expected to raise construction costs, potentially by up to 10%. This increase could lead to higher project costs and may affect the feasibility of certain developments. (GlobeSt, Feb.12)
  • In an NAHB housing market index survey published last week, 64% of builders said they expected higher material costs to be an issue for them in 2025. (NationalMortgageNews, Feb.11)

Looking Ahead

  • Commerce Secretary nominee Howard Lutnick, and trade representative Jamieson Greer, will evaluate within 180 days whether “remedies” are needed for reciprocal trade relations in a country-by-country report.
  • The Office of Management and Budget nominee Russell Vought will submit a report on the fiscal impact of these measures within the same timeframe.
  • Lutnick said the measures could be ready as soon as April 2. (NYT, Feb. 13)

The Real Estate Roundtable will continue to engage with policymakers to reduce regulatory burdens and eliminate other obstacles that are impeding development and expand America’s housing infrastructure. We will continue to provide updates as the global trade situation evolves.

White House Imposes Tariffs on China, Delays on Canada and Mexico

Posted on by Abigail Grenadier

Over the past week, new developments have emerged regarding tariffs affecting China, Canada, and Mexico. As the situation continues to evolve, industry leaders are closely monitoring the status of these executive orders and their impact on affordable housing and the cost of essential construction materials.

State of Play

  • Tariffs on these three nations went into effect on February 1. Currently, tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico are on a 30-day hold, while the additional duties on Chinese goods are in effect. (WSJ, Feb. 4)
  • Shortly after the announcements, President Trump reversed course and paused the tariffs on Mexico for one month following a conversation with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum. (ABCNews, Feb. 3)
  • As part of the arrangement reached with the U.S., President Claudia Sheinbaum of Mexico said her country would deploy to the U.S.-Mexico border 10,000 members of the Mexican National Guard to focus on curbing the flow of fentanyl and illegal migrants into the U.S.  (New York Times, Feb. 3)
  • After negotiations, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and President Trump also agreed to a 30-day pause on the tariffs. Trudeau posted on X that the pause would occur “while we work together,” stating that his government would name a fentanyl czar, list Mexican cartels as terrorist groups and launch a “Canada-U.S. Joint Strike Force to combat organized crime, fentanyl and money laundering.” (APNews, Feb. 3) 
  • Chinese and U.S. officials have yet to arrive at a similar agreement as Canada and Mexico. Beijing is readying an opening bid to try to head off greater tariff increases and technology restrictions from the Trump administration. (WSJ, Feb. 3)
  • The Customs Tariff Commission of China’s cabinet, the State Council, imposed 15% tariffs on U.S. coal and liquefied natural gas imports, while raising levies on crude oil, agricultural machinery and certain vehicles. (WSJ, Feb.4)

Commercial Real Estate Impact

  • Higher tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminum will increase structural material costs, while tariffs on Canadian lumber will impact framing and finishing costs.
  • Additionally, any trade disruptions with Mexico could further strain budgets by limiting access to affordable cement, steel, and glass. (Capright, Feb.5)
  • The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) has raised concerns about how tariffs on materials like Canadian softwood and Mexican gypsum could significantly increase construction costs, thereby raising new home prices. (Axios, Jan. 31)
  • Sixty-four percent of a home’s construction cost is building materials—27% of which are supplied by China, 11% by Mexico and 8% by Canada, according to data from the NAHB. (GlobeSt, Feb. 6) (Bloomberg, Feb.3)
  • Imposing additional tariffs on these imports will raise material costs, ultimately driving up housing prices as the U.S. works to rebuild from natural disasters and address a severe housing supply shortage.

Tariffs and Clean Materials

  • Congressional Republicans have joined Trump in exploring a possible carbon-specific clause in future rounds of tariffs, with the goal being to leverage data showing that the United States produces certain materials “cleaner” than foreign adversaries—namely China—and impose a fee on certain imports.
  • Recently, Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) proposed a bill, the “Foreign Pollution Fee Act,” that would impose a “foreign pollution fee” on imported carbon-intensive products—including construction materials. (RW, Jan.17)
  • The Roundtable submitted comments on the Foreign Pollution Fee Act last month. The letter raises concerns regarding the impact of a carbon tariff on affordable housing construction, rebuilding after natural disasters, and technical issues on calculating “indirect emissions” associated with product manufacturing. The letter suggests forward-thinking refinements to the bill’s language.

As attention now shifts towards the new March 1 deadline, The Roundtable will continue to provide updates as the global trade situation evolves.

Trump Tariffs Could Impact Housing Affordability 

Posted on by Abigail Grenadier

On Monday, President-elect Donald Trump pledged to impose a 25 percent tariff on all goods from Mexico and Canada, and an additional 10 percent tariff on imports from China. These measures could have significant repercussions for the U.S. economy, including housing affordability. (WSJ, Nov. 25 | Reuters, Nov. 26)

Response to Illegal Drugs, Immigration

  • Trump’s social media posts stated that the threatened tariffs are necessary to stop illegal immigration and fentanyl trafficking. He couched the levies on imports as temporary, staying in effect “until drugs and migrants stopped coming over the border.” (New York Times, Nov. 26)
  • The U.S. imports the most goods from Mexico, China, and Canada, in that order.  (U.S. Census Bureau, Sept. 2024).
  • Trump said he plans to impose the new tariffs on his first day in office. (AP, Nov. 26). Mexico, the U.S.’s largest export partner after Canada, vowed to retaliate with its own tariffs and spark a possible trade war. (Washington Post, Nov. 26)

Potential Impacts on Housing, Construction

  • “Overly broad and poorly designed tariffs could unintentionally increase housing costs for millions of renters and home buyers,” said Jeffrey D. DeBoer, President and CEO of The Real Estate Roundtable. “Building safe and desirable housing cost-effectively is tied closely to the price of imported materials like steel, cement, concrete, lumber, glass, and more. Tariffs that increase construction costs would slow bringing new supplies to the market and increase prices to purchase and rent homes.”
  • “We need to boost the nation’s housing supply — through new construction, converting obsolete buildings, strengthening the low-income housing tax incentive, reforming local zoning laws, and other bipartisan strategies,” DeBoer continued. “We look forward to working with the Trump Administration on policies to spur economic growth, create jobs, and in this case, improve housing affordability and availability.”
  • The proposed tariffs would be additional to Biden-era tariffs, which themselves derive from import taxes dating back to the first Trump Administration.
  • For example, in May, President Biden increased the tariff on steel products from China to 25 percent— while also increasing tariffs to varying degrees on semiconductors, solar panels, batteries and other specific Chinese imports. (White House fact sheet, May 14). It appears that President-elect Trump will seek an additional 10 percent on top of these.
  • Similarly, in August, President Biden raised tariffs on imports of Canadian softwood lumber to 14.54 percent, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB).  It appears that President-elect Trump plans to raise this import tax further to 25 percent.
  • Lumber tariffs have a detrimental impact on housing affordability, according to NAHB. “In effect, the lumber tariffs act as a tax on American businesses, home buyers, and consumers.”

Potential Impacts on the Broader Economy       

  • Investor Uncertainty: Uncertainty surrounding trade policies risks dampening investor confidence, which could weigh on real estate property values and slow transaction activity. (Bisnow, Nov. 24)
  • Energy costs: A 25 percent tariff on all imports from Canada would drive up energy costs. Canada is the top external supplier of crude oil to the U.S., with oil, gas, and other energy products making up its largest exports. (Bloomberg, Nov. 26)

Trump did not specify how he plans to impose the tariffs, although many have expected him to rely heavily on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. That law gives the president broad authority to regulate U.S. commerce after declaring a national emergency. (PoliticoPro, Nov. 24)