Category: Roundtable Weekly

29 Industry Organizations Launch “Careers Building Communities” to Encourage Real Estate Talent Development

Posted on by Trey Jackson

The Roundtable and 28 other real estate industry organizations – representing more than 10 million jobs – yesterday launched Careers Building Communities, a website highlighting diverse career paths within the real estate sector. The public policy area of the site links to Roundtable resources.

Careers Building Communities highlights diverse career paths within the real estate sector.

  • With changing demographics, technological advances and evolving preferences in how different generations live, work and play, Careers Building Communities seeks to encourage students, educators, career changers and others to explore opportunities in real estate.  
  • Housing Wire reported today that individuals can use the website to learn about real estate industry trends and take an interactive quiz to explore possible career pathways in the industry.
  • Roundtable President and CEO Jeffrey DeBoer said, “This is the kind of positive collaboration that has proven to be a winning formula for policy action in Washington.  And now, thru this new collaboration, we will apply this formula to raise the awareness that everyone, particularly young people, minorities and people of color, have regarding the tremendous career opportunities that real estate offers.”

By attracting diverse talent to the many careers available across the built environment, Careers Building Communities also responds to a consistent theme among industry stakeholders – the increased need for talent. 

House GOP Unveils “Tax Reform 2.0” Outline; Capital Gains Indexing Bill Introduced

Posted on by Trey Jackson

House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Kevin Brady (R-TX) on July 24 outlined a proposed second round of tax cuts to House Republicans, who hope to vote on “Tax Reform 2.0” before the midterm elections..

In an interview with CNBC, Brady expanded on the three core components of the Tax Reform 2.0 proposal.

  • Chairman Brady stated. “With this framework, we are taking the first step to change the culture in Washington D.C. where tax reform only happens once a generation. We plan to work off this framework to build on the growing successes of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and ensure this energized economy continues moving forward.”  (House Ways and Means Statement, July 24)
  • In an interview with CNBC, Brady expanded on the three core components of the 2.0 proposal: 
    • making the individual and small business tax cuts enacted by the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act permanent’
    • promoting family savings through retirement accounts, a new universal savings account, and
    • expanded 529 education savings accounts; and spurring business innovation by allowing new businesses to write off more of their initial start-up costs, and removing barriers to growth.
  • The central feature of the proposal – a permanent extension of tax cuts for individuals – is unlikely to pass the Senate, where it would need Democratic support.  (The Hill, July 24) 

    Senior Ways and Means Committee Member Devin Nunes (R-CA) has introduced legislation (H.R. 6444) to index capital gains to inflation – a proposal that would reduce the tax burden on long-lived assets, including real estate.

  • Although House Republicans aim to vote on “Tax Reform 2.0” legislation in September, a tax technical corrections bill may not be voted on until after the November elections. (Roundtable Weekly, July 20)
  • Meanwhile, senior Ways and Means Committee Member Devin Nunes (R-CA) has introduced legislation (H.R. 6444) to index capital gains to inflation – a proposal that would reduce the tax burden on long-lived assets, including real estate.  An inflation adjustment for capital gains previously passed the House in the 1990s but died in the Senate.  House tax-writers may consider indexing capital gains as part of Tax Reform 2.0.  (The Hill, July 20)
  • Separately, attention this week was focused on a mistake affecting qualified improvement property cost-recovery tax rules. An amendment (# 3597) introduced yesterday by Sen. Pat Toomey (R-PA) to an appropriations bill (H.R. 6147) would correct a drafting error in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act that unintentionally pushed the recovery period for property improvements from 15 to 39 years.  As a result of the mistake, businesses across the country are delaying, or significantly reducing, capital expenditures for building improvements, undermining job creation and economic activity. (BGov, July 26)
  • Additionally, the Treasury Department has sent draft regulations regarding the new deduction for pass-through business income to the White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB) for formal review.  Under a recent agreement between the two agencies, OMB has 10 days to review the regulations before they are issued, unless the parties mutually agree to extend the review period.  (TaxNotes, July 25)

In January, The Roundtable wrote to Treasury Secretary Mnuchin  offering several suggestions designed to maximize the economic impact of the pass-through deduction and avoid unnecessary disruptions to business activity.  [Roundtable Letter, Jan. 18].

Roundtable Q3 Survey: Commercial Real Estate Executives Report Balanced and Strong Current Market Conditions, Concern for the Future

Posted on by Trey Jackson

The Real Estate Roundtable’s latest quarterly Economic Sentiment Index reported commercial real estate industry executives continue to see balanced and stable market conditions for Q3, despite growing concerns that the market may be at peak pricing and could be nearing the end of its current cycle. 

The  Roundtable’s Q3 2018 Economic Sentiment Index registered at 52 — a one point increase from the last quarter. However, this quarter’s Future-Conditions Index of 49 is seven points lower than the Current-Conditions index of 56.

  • “As we move into the second half of the year, we continue to see robust markets, with debt and equity available, and asset values strong. The commercial real estate industry remains confident for the remainder of 2018,” said Roundtable CEO and President Jeffrey DeBoer. “The positive snapshot of current commercial real estate markets reflects a general absorption of recent interest rate increases, coupled with overall economic stimulation from tax reform.”  
  • The Roundtable’s Q3 2018 Sentiment Index registered at 52 — a one point increase from the last quarter. [The Overall Index is scored on a scale of 1 to 100 by averaging Current and Future Indices; any score over 50 is viewed as positive.] This quarter’s Current-Conditions Index of 56 increased four points from the previous quarter, and rose 5 points compared to the Q3 2017 score of 51. However, this quarter’s Future-Conditions Index of 49 is seven points lower than the Current-Conditions index of 56.

The report’s Topline Findings include:

Roundtable CEO and President Jeffrey DeBoer noted, “Looking to future market conditions, industry executives are noting uncertainties regarding the November midterm elections and growing interest rate and international trade concerns. Policymakers must stay focused on developing pro-growth policies that continue to benefit the overall economy and spur job growth.”

  • The Q3 index came in at 52, a one point increase from Q2. Responders view the market as balanced in terms of property supply and demand. Some responders pointed to pockets where the balance is slipping, but felt the general market conditions are positive and will continue to be so, barring an unexpected event. 
  • Most responders feel market conditions are stable, but there is growing sentiment suggesting the industry is nearing the end of its current cycle. This sentiment is reflected in the seven point spread between current and future real estate conditions shown in Exhibit 1.
  • Most responders suggested asset values have reached peak pricing for many property types, and certainly in major gateway cities. Despite potential peak pricing, industrial properties continue to attract a large volume of investors. 
  • Debt and equity capital sources remain plentiful, but responders expressed concerns about the amount of debt available and the ramifications of the mounting time pressure some lenders have to invest their capital.

DeBoer added, “Looking to future market conditions, industry executives are noting uncertainties regarding the November midterm elections and growing interest rate and international trade concerns. Policymakers must stay focused on developing pro-growth policies that continue to benefit the overall economy and spur job growth.” 

Data for the Q3 survey was gathered in July by Chicago-based FPL Associates on The Roundtable’s behalf. The next Sentiment Survey covering Q4 2018 will be released in November. 

 

Treasury Issues Regulations on New Pass-Through Business Income Deduction

Posted on by Trey Jackson

The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) and the Department of the Treasury on August 8 released guidance on the new pass-through deduction enacted in last year’s tax overhaul bill. 

“The pass-through deduction is an important tax cut for small and mid-size businesses, reducing their effective tax rates to their lowest levels since the 1930s,” said Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, above. “Pass-through businesses play a critical role in our economy. This 20-percent deduction will lead to more investment in U.S. companies and higher wages for hardworking Americans.” 

  • The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act signed by President Trump in December included a new 20 percent pass-through deduction (section 199A) that can lower the top tax rate on qualifying pass-through business income to 29.6 percent. Such income was previously taxed at a top rate of 39.6 percent.   
  • According to Treasury’s press release, the guidance is intended to: 
    • “Ensure that all small business income below $315,000 for married couples filing jointly (and $157,000 for single filers) is eligible for the deduction”;  
    • “Provide clarity and flexibility for filers over those income thresholds by:  
         • Including ‘aggregation rules’ for filers with pass-through income from multiple sources;… 
         • Issuing guidance relating to specified service, trade or business (SSTB) income above the thresholds, which may be subject to limitation for the purposes of claiming the deduction; and… 
         • Allowing a de minimis exception to avoid unnecessary compliance costs for businesses earning only a small percentage of SSTB income”; and 
    • “Establish anti-abuse safeguards to prevent improper tax avoidance schemes, such as relabeling employees as independent contractors.” 
  • “The pass-through deduction is an important tax cut for small and mid-size businesses, reducing their effective tax rates to their lowest levels since the 1930s,” said Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin.  “Pass-through businesses play a critical role in our economy.  This 20-percent deduction will lead to more investment in U.S. companies and higher wages for hardworking Americans.” 
  • “The proposed pass-through regulations are a critical step forward in the implementation of tax reform provisions affecting real estate investment, jobs, and economic activity,” said Jeffrey DeBoer, Real Estate Roundtable President and CEO.  “A regulatory framework for the pass-through deduction is necessary to give taxpayers the certainty they need to move forward with new job-creating real estate projects that strengthen and enhance communities.” 
  • The proposed regulations address several issues affecting real estate, such as the ability to aggregate income from multiple real estate partnerships.  Some areas may need further development, such as the rules related to like-kind exchanges. 
  • In January, The Roundtable wrote to Treasury Secretary Mnuchin offering several suggestions designed to maximize the economic impact of the pass-through deduction and avoid unnecessary disruptions to business activity. [Roundtable Letter, Jan. 18].  

The 184-page proposed regulation on the deduction will be formally published in a future edition of the Federal Register. Stakeholders and other interested parties will then have 45 days to submit public comments, followed by a public hearing on the proposed regulation on October 16.

Fed Poised to Raise Interest Rates Amid Growing Concerns About Escalating Trade Disputes

Posted on by Trey Jackson

Federal Reserve policymakers this week signaled they are likely to raise interest rates next month, after releasing minutes of their most recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting showing growing concerns over the economic repercussions from escalating trade disputes. 

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell today delivered remarks on “Monetary Policy in a Changing Economy” at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s annual economic symposium .  (reference:  Powell’s speech, Aug. 24)  

  • Fed Chairman Jerome Powell today delivered remarks on “Monetary Policy in a Changing Economy” at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s annual economic symposium .  Powell said the Fed faces two major risks of “moving too fast and needlessly shortening the expansion, versus moving too slowly and risking a destabilizing overheating.  I see the current path of gradually raising interest rates as the FOMC approach to taking seriously both of these risks.”  ( Powell’s speech , Aug. 24)   
  • As central bankers and economists gathered this week for the symposium, Kansas City Fed President Esther George yesterday told Bloomberg Television, “My own forecast is that it will be appropriate to raise rates a couple more times this year.”  Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan added in a CNBC interview that he sees three or four rate increases necessary over the next nine to 12 months.  
  • FOMC members are aiming to set interest rates to a “neutral” setting — one that neither spurs nor slows economic growth.  Powell’s comments at today’s symposium come after his testimony before the Senate Banking Committee last month, when he stated, “With a strong job market, inflation close to our objective, and the risks to the outlook roughly balanced, the FOMC believes that – for now – the best way forward is to keep gradually raising the federal funds rate,” (Roundtable Weekly, July 20)  
  • Regarding commercial real estate, the FOMC’s meeting minutes released Wednesday show “CRE loans at banks maintained solid growth over the past several quarters, with growth shared across all three major CRE loan categories.”

    • FOMC minutes show growing concern among monetary policymakers over how trade disputes could pose a threat to economic growth.

  • The minutes also show growing concern among monetary policymakers over how trade disputes could pose a threat to economic growth.  “All participants pointed to ongoing trade disagreements and proposed trade measures as an important source of uncertainty and risks.  Participants observed that if a large-scale and prolonged dispute over trade policies developed, there would likely be adverse effects on business sentiment, investment spending, and employment,” according to the  Fed’s minutes.  
  • “Moreover, wide-ranging tariff increases would also reduce the purchasing power of U.S. households.  Further negative effects in such a scenario could include reductions in productivity and disruptions of supply chains,” the minutes continue.  
  • Yesterday, the U.S. and China started implementation of 25 percent tariffs on $16 billion worth of each other’s goods, according to Reuters.  The negative economic impact of tariffs on each state is the focus of a recent U.S. Chamber of Commerce analysis.  (Politico’s Morning Money, Aug. 23)  
  • Commenting on last week’s Q3 Real Estate Roundtable Economic Sentiment Index, Roundtable President and CEO Jeffrey DeBoer noted, “Looking to future market conditions, industry executives are noting uncertainties regarding the November midterm elections and growing interest rate and international trade concerns.  Policymakers must stay focused on developing pro-growth policies that continue to benefit the overall economy and spur job growth.” 

The FOMC’s next meeting is scheduled for Sept. 25-26.  Former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh (2006 to 2011) will address Roundtable members on Sept. 26 during The Roundtable’s Fall Meeting in Washington, DC.

Hospitality CEOs Meet With President Trump to Advocate Reauthorization of Brand USA Program; Visa Application Process Improvements

Posted on by Trey Jackson

The vital contributions to the U.S. economy and job creation by the travel and tourism industry were the focus of a meeting Tuesday between President Trump and CEOs of 13 hospitality companies, including four members of The Real Estate Roundtable. 

Among the hotel CEOs participating in the White House meeting on travel and tourism this week were former Real Estate Roundtable Chairman Chris Nassetta of Hilton, along with Roundtable members Elie Maalouf of InterContinental Hotels Group; Patrick Pacious of Choice Hotels International; and James Risoleo of Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc. 

– enlarge photo –

  • The White House meeting focused on ways the Trump Administration and private industry can work together to achieve travel-related economic growth.  Among the policies discussed to help improve inbound travel: expanding and enhancing secure visa policies; supporting the Brand USA destination marketing agency; the importance of international inbound travel to reduce the growing trade deficit; and transportation infrastructure — all critical to increasing both international and domestic travel. 
  • Among the hotel CEOs participating in the meeting were former Real Estate Roundtable Chairman Chris Nassetta of Hilton, along with Roundtable members  Elie Maalouf of InterContinental Hotels Group; Patrick Pacious of Choice Hotels International; and James Risoleo of Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc. 
  • The Visit U.S. coalition, which includes The Roundtable, is urging Congress to reauthorize Brand USA — the nation’s tourism marketing program, which is not supported by taxpayer dollars, but through fees on foreign visitors who do not require a visa when entering the U.S.  Legislation is needed to authorize the program beyond 2020 and ensure that visitor fees authorized for collection from 2021 to 2027 will not be diverted to the Treasury Department, as currently scheduled. 
  • An FY2017 return on investment analysis showed each dollar of Brand USA marketing generated almost 28 dollars in visitor spending.  Moreover, Brand USA-generated international visitor spending is estimated to have produced 486 million dollars in federal tax revenue, and another 526 million dollars in state and local tax revenue.
  • Roger Dow, president and CEO of the U.S. Travel Association, said, “The president is a keen listener whenever you’re talking about growing the economy, and he was receptive to the idea that travel growth can be achieved without compromising security.” 

A panel discussion at The Roundtable’s June 14 Annual Meeting focused on the travel and tourism issue.  Participants included Senator Amy Klobuchar (D-MN); Roundtable Board Member Anthony E. Malkin, Chairman and CEO, Empire State Realty Trust; USTA’s Roger Dow; and American Hotel & Lodging Association’s President and CEO Katherine Lugar.  (Roundtable Weekly, June 15, 2018.)

Policymakers, Roundtable Members Focus on Economy, Elections, And Monetary Policy

Posted on by Trey Jackson

This week’s Real Estate Roundtable Fall Meeting featured discussions with U.S. policymakers regarding national public policies affecting the commercial real estate industry, job creation and the economy. 

Roundtable Chair Debra A. Cafaro (Chairman & CEO, Ventas, Inc.)

  • Roundtable Chair Debra A. Cafaro (Chairman & CEO, Ventas, Inc.) opened the meeting stating: “The ‘results-oriented’ focus of The Roundtable continues to emphasize our optimism about the economy and the positive contributions the real estate industry provides as a job creator and a cornerstone for retirement savings.”   She added, “we must continue to proactively advance policies that promote a healthy balance of capital and people flows to create sustainable economic growth that is good for our industry and our national economy.” 

Meeting speakers included:  

  • Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper (D-CO) called for private-public collaboration to address a range of national policy challenges affecting urban, suburban and rural areas, including workforce housing and infrastructure.
  • Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA) discussed incentivizing the private sector to achieve pro-growth economic policy. 

    Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper (D-CO) called for private-public collaboration to address a range of national policy challenges affecting urban, suburban and rural areas, including workforce housing and infrastructure.

     

  • Craig S. Phillips — counselor to U.S. Department of Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin — addressed issues such as GSE reform; reauthorization of the Terrorism Risk Insurance Program Reauthorization Act of 2015 (TRIPRA) beyond its scheduled expiration date at the end of 2020; the ongoing implementation of recent tax law changes; and the new federal “Opportunity Zones” investment program. (Roundtable Comment Letter, June 28)  
  • Sen. David Perdue (R-GA) — member of the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee and the only former Fortune 500 CEO in Congress — emphasized the need for bipartisanship in Congress to address an ongoing budget deficit crisis and eliminate regulatory redundancy.
  • Kevin Warsh — former Governor, Federal Reserve (2006-2011) — discussed the strength of the current economy and future potential economic risks.  Mr. Warsh’s op-ed in the Wall Street Journal this week addresses the Fed’s nearly $3 trillion balance sheet and maintaining a “neutral real interest rate.”
  • Bob Woodward — Pulitzer Prize-winning Journalist & Author, The Washington Post — spoke about his latest book, Fear: Trump in the White House and the mid-term elections. 

The Roundtable’s State of the Industry Meeting and it’s policy advisory committees will meet January 29-30, 2019 in Washington, DC.

House Passes “Tax Reform 2.0” Legislation; President Trump Signs Government Funding Bill

Posted on by Trey Jackson

he House today passed “Tax Reform 2.0” legislation (H.R. 6760) that would make permanent the 2017 tax cuts for individuals and certain pass-through businesses – currently set to expire at the end of 2025. 

The   House today passed “Tax Reform 2.0” legislation (H.R. 6760) that would make permanent the 2017 tax cuts for individuals and certain pass-through businesses – currently set to expire at the end of 2025.

  • As GOP policymakers seek to highlight last year’s Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (P.L. 115-97) as their signature achievement before the November mid-term elections, today’s bill passed on a mostly partisan vote of 220-191. Among the provisions in H.R. 6760:
    • Individual marginal rates of 10%, 12%, 22%, 24%, 32%, 35%, and 37%;
    • Capping the deduction for state and local taxes (SALT) at $10,000; and
    • a 20% tax deduction for the business income of certain pass-through businesses. 
  • “By making the new code permanent for families and small businesses, the Protecting Family and Small Business Tax Cuts Act will keep America’s economy booming,” House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Kevin Brady (R-TX) said on the House floor. 
  • The House on Thursday passed two other tax bills (H.R. 6756 and H.R. 6757) that would expand incentives for retirement savings and startup businesses. All three bills now go to the Senate, where chances to pass H.R. 6760 are unlikely without support from Democrats. 
  • Also today, President Trump signed a spending bill that funds most government programs through Sept. 30, 2019 while extending others via a “Continuing Resolution” until Dec. 7.  Funding for those programs was scheduled to expire on Sunday at midnight. (White House Statement, Sept. 28) 
  • Among the programs extended for another year is the EB-5 immigration investment program – the 14th extension since Sept. 2015.

As the confirmation process for President Donald Trump’s Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh dominated the Senate this week, the House adjourned today until after the midterm elections. (Politico, Sept. 28).

Midterm Elections Produce Divided Congress; Lame Duck Session Faces Government Funding Deadline

Posted on by Trey Jackson

Lawmakers return to Washington next week for a Lame Duck session after midterm elections that secured Democratic control of the House in January.  Policymakers will immediately face a Dec. 7 deadline to fund parts of the government that may collide with President Trump’s goal to fund a border wall on the Mexican border – a possible impasse that could threaten a partial government shutdown.

Lawmakers return to Washington next week for a Lame Duck session after midterm elections that secured Democratic control of the House in January.

  • Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) this week cautioned against a possible shutdown.  “75 percent of the government got funded before the end of September and we all know we need to work together here at the end to finish that up.  So we’re going to do the best we can to achieve the president’s priorities. And hopefully we won’t be headed down that path,” McConnell said. (Politico, Nov. 7) 
  • Several immigration programs (including the EB-5 investment program) are scheduled to expire on Dec. 7 unless Congress pursues its typical course and extends them as part of the next government funding measure.  However, Congress also faces a Nov. 30 funding expiration for the National Flood Insurance Program. 
  • Other major legislation is not expected to pass during the Lame Duck, although President Trump and Democrats have recently expressed interest in working together on an infrastructure package (CNBC, Nov. 7).   Congress may also consider a tax bill with technical corrections and an extension for expiring tax breaks that could carry over to the new year.
  • Beyond the Lame Duck, it is expected that both parties in the 116th Congress will introduce legislation to maneuver for public favor affecting the 2020 presidential campaign.  (AP, Nov. 7)  

    Roundtable President and CEO Jeffrey DeBoer said, “We believe we will continue to be successful in Washington – regardless of which party controls the power levers – by maintaining our focus on smart research; strong political relationships; and our long-standing positive bipartisan approach to advocacy that emphasizes commercial real estate’s contributions to job creation, communities, retirement savings and overall economic strength.”

  • A new Congress will also bring Democratic control of House committees and a substantial new policy dynamic.  Extensive hearings on last year’s tax overhaul are expected from the new chair of the House Ways and Means Committee Richard Neal (D-MA), the long-standing leader of the House Real Estate Caucus. 
  • Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), who served as Speaker of the House from 2006-2011 and is favored to re-assume that role, stated her caucus plans to revive a “Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming” that will lend heightened focus on risks and impacts from climate change and extreme weather events. (The Hill, Nov. 8.) 
  • It is also possible that GSE reform and a focus on housing issues could gain traction in next year’s House Financial Services Committee, which will be led by incoming Chair Maxine Waters (D-CA).  Her committee will also consider reauthorization of the federal terrorism insurance program. 
  • GlobeSt reported this week there “is one piece of must-pass legislation for the CRE industry that will require bipartisan support – the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act, which is set to expire at the end of 2020.  This law impacts most business properties and is a key to transactions and refinancing. Without a doubt it has to be extended.”  (What A Divided Government Means For CRE, Nov. 7) 

The new dynamic of a divided Congress will refocus the commercial real estate industry on its policy agenda. Roundtable President and CEO Jeffrey DeBoer said, “The Real Estate Roundtable will maintain its steady course. We believe we will continue to be successful in Washington – regardless of which party controls the power levers – by maintaining our focus on smart research; strong political relationships; and our long-standing positive bipartisan approach to advocacy that emphasizes commercial real estate’s contributions to job creation, communities, retirement savings and overall economic strength.”

The Roundtable will hold its State of the Industry Meeting on January 29, 2019 in Washington, DC.

Commercial Real Estate Industry Leaders See Positive Market Fundamentals for Remainder of 2018

Posted on by Trey Jackson

Commercial real estate executives continue to see strong and balanced market conditions for the remainder of 2018 and moving forward into the new year, according to The Real Estate Roundtable’s Q4 2018 Economic Sentiment Index released today.

Commercial real estate executives continue to see strong and balanced market conditions for the remainder of 2018 and moving forward into the new year, according to The Real Estate Roundtable’s Q4 2018 Economic Sentiment Index. 

“Our latest Sentiment Index finds commercial real estate industry leaders experiencing continued positive market conditions and cautiously predicting solid performance into 2019. Concerns exist about interest rate and construction cost increases, as well as labor shortages. However, these concerns have not yet caused significant market disruption.” said Roundtable President and CEO Jeffrey DeBoer. “With some exceptions, supply and demand in major markets remains essentially in balance, and access to debt and equity remains strong. Disciplined, not aggressive, development and investment are the current watchwords of smart real estate executives,” DeBoer added. 

The Roundtable’s Q4 2018 Sentiment Index registered at 50 — a two point decrease from Q3 2018. [The Overall Index is scored on a scale of 1 to 100 by averaging Current and Future Indices; any score over 50 is viewed as positive.] This quarter’s Current Conditions Index of 53 decreased by three points from the previous quarter. This time last year, the Q4 2017 Current Conditions Index registered at 53 as well, highlighting the sustained equilibrium in the market this past year. This quarter’s Future Conditions Index of 47, decreased by two points from the previous quarter. 

The report’s Topline Findings include:

  • The Q4 index came in at 50, a two point drop from Q3. Most suggest that current market conditions are positive and expect such conditions to continue into the new year. However, some responders continue to question, “How much longer can this last?”   
  • Responders pointed to the increase in costs for constructions projects and the corresponding decline in development returns as a concerning market factor. As a result, fewer responders were highly optimistic about market conditions in 2019 as yield becomes increasingly hard to find.   
  • For the first time in many quarters, a large proportion of responders are indicating a belief that asset values will start declining. However, pricing is expect to stay relatively strong for assets in major markets. 
  • Responders feel debt and equity capital are plentiful in today’s market. Equity investors and lenders alike continue to show strong appetite for real estate.

Ninety percent of survey participants report Q4 2018 asset values today are “about the same” or “somewhat higher” compared to this time last year. Looking ahead, a minority of participants said they expect values to be “somewhat lower” one year from now with 55% of respondents seeing no significant value declines.

DeBoer noted, “After the midterm elections we look forward to continuing to work on positive, pro-growth national public policy. The nation needs policy action to address the growing labor shortage and infrastructure needs. The terrorism risk insurance act will also need to be extended in the new Congress. We intend to try to help policymakers tackle these and others issues by offering smart research and positive bipartisan advocacy that emphasizes commercial real estate’s contributions to job creation, communities; and retirement savings.” 

Data for the Q4 survey was gathered in October by Chicago-based FPL Associates on The Roundtable’s behalf.