Category: Q1 Sentiment Index

While Uncertainty Remains, Commercial Real Estate Executives Are Optimistic About Future Market Conditions

Posted on by Abigail Grenadier

The Real Estate Roundtable’s Q1 Economic Sentiment Index reports that industry executives, while optimistic about the future, remain uncertain about current market conditions, citing inflation, rising interest rates, and supply chain disruptions as concerns. However, executives also express that perceptions and outlooks differ across asset classes, as some remain strong and others show concerns.

  • Roundtable President and CEO Jeffrey DeBoer said, “Fundamentally, our Q1 index illustrates that the trends accelerated by the pandemic have led to mixed performances across asset classes. Multifamily and industrial assets have maintained steady growth due to increased housing demand and supply chain needs, while hospitality and student housing are regaining momentum. But in the office sector, remote work policies, concerns over crime and transportation are driving record-high vacancy rates throughout the country, hurting city budgets and small businesses.”
  • “Looking forward, industry leaders are anticipating the landscape to improve throughout the year, despite recent declines in asset values and the decreased availability of debt and equity capital compared to a year ago. Policymakers should emphasize the need to return to the workplace while considering other innovative solutions such as legislation to convert underutilized offices to housing to entrench this optimism, create jobs, spur economic activity, and increase housing supply and tax revenue,” DeBoer added.
  • The Roundtable’s Economic Sentiment Index—a measure of senior executives’ confidence and expectations about the commercial real estate market environment—is scored on a scale of 1 to 100 by averaging the scores of Current and Future Economic Sentiment Indices.­­­­ Any score over 50 is viewed as positive. ­­­­

Top Line Findings

  • The Q1 2023 Real Estate Roundtable Sentiment Index registered an overall score of 44, an increase of five points from the previous quarter. The Current Index registered at 31, a two-point increase from Q4 2022, and the Future Index posted a score of 58 points, an increase of ten points from the previous quarter.
  • Several survey respondents acknowledged the dangers of generalizing trends across the commercial real estate industry as the disparities between asset classes grow; multifamily and industrial continue to attract interest, hospitality and student housing are beginning to bounce back, meanwhile Class B office is struggling.
  • Nearly all survey participants (93%) expressed that asset values have fallen year-over-year. That said, conversations with industry leaders suggest that the market is still in a period of price discovery. With low transaction volume and a limited supply of debt capital, there is lingering uncertainty as to where asset prices will ultimately land.
  • Survey participants overwhelmingly indicated that the availability of debt and equity capital is worse today compared to one year ago (93% and 82% respectfully). However, over half of participants expect the capital markets landscape to improve over the next 12 months.

Data for the Q1 survey was gathered in January by Chicago-based Ferguson Partners on The Roundtable’s behalf.  See the full Q1 report. 

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Commercial Real Estate Executives’ Perceptions Of Industry Fundamentals Hold Steady Despite Current Market Conditions

Posted on by Trey Jackson

Commercial real estate executives continue to view current conditions as significantly less favorable than previous quarters due to rising interest rates, increased inflation, supply chain disruptions, and labor shortages. However, leaders’ views of where the markets will be one year from today have improved, indicating a cautiously optimistic outlook for the future, according to The Real Estate Roundtable’s Q3 2022 Economic Sentiment Index. 

Roundtable President and CEO Jeffrey DeBoer said, “Our Q3 Sentiment Index reflects many of the challenges our economy and industry have faced since early 2022. While these challenges will continue to be bottlenecks in the near term, CRE leaders are optimistic about the future, as underlying real estate fundamentals, such as housing, remain in high demand.

DeBoer added, “Industrial and multifamily continue to be a source of strength, but office and retail still struggle to regain momentum following the pandemic. These are uncertain times, but quality assets and owners will persevere as they continue to meet fundamental demand.”

The Roundtable’s Overall Q3 2022 Sentiment Index—a reflection of the views of real estate industry leaders—registered an overall score of 44. The Economic Sentiment Overall Index is scored on a scale of 1 to 100 by averaging the scores of Current and Future Indices. Any score over 50 is viewed as positive. The Current Index registered at 38, a 19-point decrease compared to Q2 2022; however, the Future Index registered a score of 51, a 5-point increase from the previous quarter, reflecting leaders’ optimism in future conditions. ­­­­

Topline findings:

  • The Q3 2022 Real Estate Roundtable Sentiment Index registered an overall score of 44, a decrease of 7 points from the previous quarter’s overall score and 34 points lower than a year earlier.
  • Survey respondents are cautious of rising interest rates, increased inflation, supply chain disruptions, and other issues but remain optimistic regarding the underlying fundamentals for real estate.
  • While fundamentals, such as industrial and multifamily, remain strong in terms of supply and demand, there is concern over current market conditions for other asset classes, particularly office and retail.
  • Although in the short-term the pandemic has led to a lack of enthusiasm for office and retail assets, industry leaders expect strong, long-term demand for assets that allow increased flexibility by providing tenants with more amenities and higher quality accommodations.
  • Rising interest rates and general market uncertainty represent clear challenges facing asset pricing; where trades are taking place, they have been occurring at a discount relative to recent high-water marks.
  • In terms of capital markets, participants noted that capital is available, though market uncertainty has induced hesitancy for risk-taking and tightening across both debt and equity.

Data for the Q3 survey was gathered in July 2022 by Chicago-based Ferguson Partners on The Roundtable’s behalf. Read the full Q3 report.

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Economic Headwinds and Geopolitical Uncertainty Top CRE Executives’ Views About Q2 Market Conditions

Posted on by Trey Jackson

image - Roundtable President and CEO Jeffrey DeBoer

Commercial real estate executives remain optimistic about overall Q2 market conditions despite growing economic headwinds and geopolitical uncertainty, according to The Real Estate Roundtable’s Q2 2022 Economic Sentiment Index released on May 13, 2022.

  • Roundtable President and CEO Jeffrey DeBoer, above, said, “The decline in this quarter’s Real Estate Roundtable Sentiment Index reflects concerns regarding inflationary pressures, interest rate increases, labor shortages and supply chain disruptions. Even so, the overall sentiment of commercial real estate industry senior executives remains positive. Businesses and individuals continue to rethink how real estate meets their evolving working, living, and traveling preferences. Building owners, managers and financiers across the nation are partnering with their business and residential tenants to respond, while also pressing forward in developing and redeveloping buildings to be greener, smarter, and more efficient.”
  • He added, “Our Q2 Sentiment Index reveals especially bright spots for lease demand in a wide swath of the economy, particularly regarding life sciences, industrial, multifamily, and data center assets. At the same time however, high inflation, rising interest rates, labor and supply chain shortages are increasing costs associated with all real estate development and operations. The impact of ongoing war in eastern Europe is another cloud tempering optimism. We urge national policymakers to focus on creating jobs and supporting strong real estate asset values. Both actions would buttress the overall economy and help local community budgets provide needed safety, education and transportation services.”
  • The Roundtable’s Overall Sentiment Index—a measure of senior executives’ confidence and expectations about the commercial real estate market environments—is scored on a scale of 1 to 100 by averaging the scores of Current and Future Economic Sentiment Indices. Any score over 50 is viewed as positive. ­­­­ 

Topline findings include:

Q2 Real Estate Roundtable Economic Sentiment Index chart

  • The Roundtable’s Q2 2022 Economic Sentiment Index registered an overall score of 51, a decrease of 15 points from the previous quarter’s overall score and 26 points lower than a year earlier. Survey respondents remain optimistic but have tempered their expectations due to geopolitical and economic uncertainties, which include rising interest rates, increased inflation, and labor and supply chain shortfalls.
  • Perceptions vary by property type and geography, with industrial, multifamily, life sciences, and data centers continuing to be most favored. As employers continue to roll out return-to-office policies, the demand for office space remains uncertain.
  • Asset values have trended upward across asset classes compared to last year, while forward-looking expectations are starting to taper off.
  • Participants cited a continued availability of debt and equity capital despite heightened concerns over rising interest rates, geopolitical concerns, and inflationary risk.

Data for the Q2 survey was gathered in April by Chicago-based Ferguson Partners on The Roundtable’s behalf.  See the full Q2 report.

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CRE Executives’ Optimism About Q1 Market Conditions Tempered by Inflation and Interest Rate Concerns

Posted on by Trey Jackson

As the economy continues to recover from the global pandemic, commercial real estate executives see strong market fundamentals and steady economic growth, according to The Real Estate Roundtable’s Q1 2022 Economic Sentiment Index. While optimistic about the economic outlook going forward, inflation concerns and a rising interest rate environment are frequently cited as potential headwinds for the industry.

Market Conditions

John Fish 2021 Suffolk

  • Additionally, Roundtable Chair John Fish (Chairman and CEO, Suffolk), above, on Feb. 14 discussed the real estate market and return-to-office efforts on Bloomberg’s “The Tape” podcast. (Listen to podcast from 10:45 to 16:55)
  • The Roundtable’s Overall Q1 2022 Sentiment Index—a reflection of the views of real estate industry leaders—registered a score of 66, a seven-point increase relative to the Q1 2021 score, demonstrating continued optimism for market conditions despite a decrease of seven points from Q4 2021. The Current Index registered at 71, a 27- point increase compared to Q1 2021. The Economic Sentiment Overall Index is scored on a scale of 1 to 100 by averaging the scores of Current and Future Indices. Any score over 50 is viewed as positive.
  • The Roundtable’s quarterly economic survey also shows that 69 percent of respondents believe that general market conditions today are “much better or somewhat better” versus one year ago—and that 53 percent anticipate conditions will continue to improve one year from now.
  • Roundtable President and CEO Jeffrey DeBoer said, “We are encouraged by the decreasing number of cases of COVID-19, pandemic-related restrictions being lifted throughout the country, cities continuing to reopen safely and efficiently, and increased travel and consumer spending. Our nation’s post-pandemic recovery is reliant on the revitalization of cities, safe transportation systems, significant return of employees to the workplace, and healthy real estate values.”
  • He added, “Throughout the pandemic the real estate industry has assisted suddenly jobless residents and troubled business tenants restructure leases to remain in their properties. Industry leaders now look forward to reimagining people’s living, shopping, work, and other spaces in the built environment to accommodate the evolving needs of the post-COVID economy.”

Topline Findings 

Q1 2022 General Conditions

  • The Q1 2022 Real Estate Roundtable Sentiment Index registered a score of 66, a decrease of seven points from the fourth quarter of 2021 but a seven-point increase over Q1 2021. While optimistic about the economic outlook going forward, inflation concerns and a rising interest rate environment were frequently cited as potential headwinds for the industry.
     
  • Survey respondents’ outlook varied between asset classes and location; most participants felt that real estate assets, particularly single and multifamily housing and industrial, remain largely “priced to perfection” with limited supply being chased by seemingly “boundless” capital.
     
  • This supply-demand imbalance has generally led to compressed cap rates across favorable asset classes and results in perceptions that valuations will remain elevated.
  • Participants cited a continued abundance of debt and equity capital and strong investor demand for real estate. 

Data for the Q1 survey was gathered in January by Chicago-based Ferguson Partners on The Roundtable’s behalf. See the full Q1 report. 

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Commercial Real Estate Executives Report Improved Current Markets and Caution Ahead

Posted on by Trey Jackson

Q2 2021 Sentiment Index Graph - RWCommercial real estate executives report Q2 market conditions have stabilized since the previous quarter, yet note the future is clouded by concerns about labor shortages, inflationary pressures and the outcome of current policy proposals in Washington, according to The Real Estate Roundtable’s Q2 Economic Sentiment Index.  

Current and Future Sentiment

  • The Roundtable’s Overall Sentiment Index is scored on a scale of 1 to 100 by averaging Current and Future Indices; any result over 50 is viewed as positive. This quarter’s Overall Sentiment registered a score of 77.

  • The Roundtable’s Q2 Current Sentiment score of 78 is a 34-point increase over Q1, reflecting increased vaccination, a reduction in the number of positive COVID tests, and moves to reopen businesses. The current sentiment score also stands in contrast to the economic environment of one year ago, when the current sentiment score hit 13, an 11-year low. 

  • However, sentiment reported in Q2 about Future Conditions registered a flat score of 75 – only one point more than the previous quarter – reflecting continued concerns about the pandemic’s long-term impacts.  

Roundtable Insight

  • Roundtable President and CEO Jeffrey DeBoer said, “Industry leaders are encouraged by the steady progress of vaccinations, rapidly declining infection rates and businesses reopening, but their ongoing concerns over increasing construction costs, inflationary pressures and labor supply have resulted in a more measured outlook.”

  • “As the long-term economic repercussions of the pandemic remain unclear, Washington lawmakers should prioritize new policies that encourage continued economic growth over initiatives that could hinder the recovery,” DeBoer added. 

  • The Roundtable’s survey for the Q2 Sentiment Index also shows that eighty-three percent of respondents believe that general market conditions today are “much better or somewhat better” versus one year ago – and that availability of capital remains plentiful compared to one year ago.

  • The Roundtable’s Q2 Economic Sentiment Index’s Topline Findings include:

    • An Improvement in Current Market Conditions
      Respondents’ views reflect the progress of the national vaccination rollout and improvements in near-term conditions, compared to the economic trough one year ago.
    • Increasing Values for In-Demand Asset Classes
      Respondents report investors are starting to bid up asking prices for in-demand asset classes such as life science and storage.
    • Steady Capital Markets
      Most respondents cited accessible capital market for debt and equity, especially when compared to a far more difficult overall market one year ago.   

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Roundtable’s Q1 Sentiment Index Shows CRE Execs Optimistic About Market Conditions

Posted on by Trey Jackson

Q1-2021-Sentiment Index Graph - HomePage

Commercial real estate industry leaders continue to acknowledge the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on various asset classes, while expressing increased optimism about market conditions for the remainder of 2021, according to The Real Estate Roundtable’s Q1 2021 Economic Sentiment Index. The March 3 Index also reports on growth potential for the industrial and multifamily sectors, while hospitality and retail continue to face challenges due to government restrictions and health guidelines.

  • Real Estate Roundtable President and CEO Jeffrey DeBoer stated, “Our Q1 index indicates that despite the extremely challenging past 12 months, industry leaders are optimistic that market conditions are trending in positive way. General supply and demand market balance, functioning capital markets, and low leverage – combined with increased vaccination efforts – have sparked the strong uptick in optimism. Of course all of this is threatened if vaccinations stall overall, or if national policymakers impose new tax or regulatory burdens on the industry.”
  • DeBoer also noted the positive role that real estate has played in combatting the pandemic. “Throughout the pandemic, real estate owners, managers, investors and lenders each have focused on mitigating the impact of the crisis on their residential and business tenants. The industry has restructured leases with tenants under stress, advocated for federal rental and other assistance, helped educate tenants on how to access relief, provided significant reforms to health-related building operational protocols, and issued detailed guidance to ensure safe and effective ways to re-enter buildings,” he said.
  • The Roundtable’s Q1 2021 Sentiment Index registered at 59 – a fifteen-point increase from the previous quarter.  [The Overall Index is scored on a scale of 1 to 100 by averaging Current and Future Indices; any score over 50 is viewed as positive.]. This quarter’s Current Conditions Index of 44 increased 17 points from the previous quarter, while this quarter’s Future Conditions Index of 74, is an increase of 13 points compared to last quarter. The last time the Future Conditions Index registered at 74 was Q3 2010.

    The report’s Topline Findings include: 

  • The Q1 2021 Real Estate Roundtable Sentiment Index registered a score of 59, an increase of 15 points from the fourth quarter of 2020. Respondents continued to express optimism about future conditions; however, the outlook is highly dependent upon asset class and portfolio mix.
  • The industrial and multifamily sectors were cited as having been the most resilient to the global pandemic, and best positioned to emerge successful in a post-pandemic environment. Retail and hospitality sectors continue to face challenges stemming from public health measures and government restrictions.
  • Low transaction volume has resulted in limited visibility into asset valuations over the past year. Among the trades that have occurred, industrial assets have seen their values increase, mirroring the market overall, while multifamily properties are trading at a slight discount to their pre-COVID values.
  • Capital flows within the real estate market are following the sector-specific impacts of the pandemic. Most respondents cited accessible capital markets for high quality assets, particularly in the industrial and multifamily spaces. However, out-of-favor property types and strategies with leasing and/or development exposure are finding it more difficult to secure institutional equity and financing. 

Data for the Q1 survey was gathered by Chicago-based FPL Associates on The Roundtable’s behalf.  For the full Q1 report, visit here and full news release.

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Commercial Real Estate Executives See a Coronavirus Vaccine as Cure for Current Market Challenges

Posted on by Trey Jackson

Commercial real estate executives recognize the various challenges in the current market as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, while remaining optimistic about future market conditions, according to The Real Estate Roundtable’s Q3 2020 Economic Sentiment Index released today.  The report emphasizes the importance for developing, testing, and distributing a vaccine in the coming months in order for market conditions to show further improvements.

  • “As our Q3 index shows, commercial real estate markets continue to suffer from the effects that the COVID-19 pandemic has had on businesses and residential tenants” said Real Estate Roundtable President and CEO Jeffrey DeBoer. “Hospitality, senior housing, and retail commercial real estate tenants in particular are struggling currently, as are CMBS loan pools consisting of these asset types. Other commercial real estate sectors, notably office and multifamily, also are facing challenges related to the overall economic hit from the health care crisis and are very cautious in their activities. However, generally balanced CRE market conditions and responsible leverage prior to the crisis positions the industry to stabilize and move forward positively once a vaccine is available,” DeBoer added.
  • The Roundtable’s Q3 2020 Sentiment Index registered at 42 – a four point increase from the previous quarter.  [The Overall Index is scored on a scale of 1 to 100 by averaging Current and Future Indices; any score over 50 is viewed as positive.]. This quarter’s Current Conditions Index of 21 increased eight points from the previous quarter, while this quarter’s Future Conditions Index of 63, is an increase of one point compared to last quarter, and a 13-point increase compared to Q1 2020. 
  • The report’s Topline Findings include:
    • Many respondents expressed optimism about future market conditions as they feel current market conditions are the result of the COVID-19 pandemic, as opposed to poor underlying market fundamentals.  However, until a vaccine or treatment is released and the general populace regains its confidence, responders felt the market would stay in its current challenged state.  
    • Survey responders expect a challenging market for at least the next six to nine months while a vaccine is created, tested, and distributed. Assuming a vaccine is released, most responders assume the market will be in recovery by this time next year.
    • Transaction volume has been down since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic in most markets.  Anticipated asset price discounts for most property types have yet to materialize as property owners are not willing to capitulate to market pressures if they can keep hold of their assets until a post-vaccine market. 
    • Many responders described the capital markets as open, but challenging to access.  Construction and permanent financing options have increased since the beginning of the pandemic, but are still selective, relative to the projects they will finance.  Institutional equity has continued to enter the market where it has an existing relationship with a manager; otherwise, investors are reluctant to enter the market at this time.    
  • DeBoer noted, “While a vaccine continues to be explored, it is imperative that Congress and the Administration soon come to an agreement on the next round of COVID-19 relief. Extending added unemployment benefits, additional funding for the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP), and a rental assistance program to help impacted people as well as struggling small businesses is needed. Moreover, property owners, hospitals, schools and others need liability protection against frivolous lawsuits and businesses need assistance as they seek to cover new and unusual expenses related to safety and cleaning protocols.” 

Data for the Q3 survey was gathered by Chicago-based FPL Associates on The Roundtable’s behalf. The Roundtable table’s Q4 Sentiment Index will be released in November.

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Q2 Economic Sentiment: Commercial Real Estate Execs Confirm COVID-19 Market Downturn

Posted on by Trey Jackson

Q2 2020 Sentiment Index - Homepage

Commercial real estate executives confirmed a downturn in Q2 market conditions due to job losses and business shutdowns related to COVID-19, according to The Real Estate Roundtable’s 2020 Q2 Economic Sentiment Index released today.  The report also shows there is an expectation for an improvement in market conditions by next year, dependent upon the return of jobs and the ability to safely reopen businesses. 

  • “The commercial real estate industry, like all industries, experienced in the second quarter a sudden onset of economic disruption due to business lockdowns and stay-at-home shutdown orders put in place to combat the pandemic,” said Real Estate Roundtable President and CEO Jeffrey DeBoer.  “The economic damage to commercial real estate has been particularly harmful for the retail and lodging sectors of the industry.  Although our Q2 survey results show there is hope for improved conditions within the next year, there are significant concerns that other sectors of the industry could be dragged down if jobs don’t rebound and government assistance tapers off.  The fear is that business and residential tenants may be suddenly unable to pay rent beyond the sectors already impacted and struggling to come back,” DeBoer added.
  • The report’s Topline Findings include:
    • The Real Estate Roundtable Q2 2020 Sentiment Index registered a score of 38, a decrease of 14 points from the first quarter of 2020.   Many respondents confirm tenants are having increased difficulties paying their rent obligations as a result of massive job losses.  Most survey participants expect the eventual reopening of businesses and resolution of rental obligations will lead to improved real estate market conditions.
    • Many survey respondents have seen the industry quickly adapt to new social distancing environments by implementing technologies and online processes that provide some continuity for current operations.  Market volatility is leading to uncertainty about how future retail real estate and multifamily demand will be affected.
    • Job losses have led to widespread economic uncertainty.  Lockdowns and stay-at-home orders have also impaired the ability of survey respondents to accurately value commercial real estate assets.  As a result, transactions have slowed until a medical solution to the outbreak may allow reopening of properties, renewed business activity and underwriting of investments. 
    • The majority of survey participants indicated the availability of debt and equity are worse today than one year ago.  Many respondents indicated they believe there is plenty of equity capital on the sidelines, but it is unwilling to invest in a market without price discovery.  As for debt markets, debt funds have been largely absent from the market and only the most pristine assets are qualifying for new debt capital.  
    • The Roundtable’s Q2 Overall Sentiment Index is scored on a scale of 1 to 100 by averaging Current and Future Indices; any score over 50 is viewed as positive. 
  • The Q2 Current Conditions Index dropped to 13 from Q1’s score of 55 – yet the Q2 Future Conditions Index increased 12 points to register 62 when compared to Q1’s score of 50.
  • The 49-point disparity between the Q2 Current Index (13) and Future Index (62) is the most significant difference registered by The Roundtable’s Quarterly Economic Sentiment Survey in its 12-year history.  The next highest disparity previously occurred in Q1 2009, when the difference between current and future indices registered 40 points during the financial crisis.
  • DeBoer noted, “The unprecedented wave of job losses is disproportionally impacting women, minorities and veterans.  Unemployment and business closures have added tremendous stress on people worried about taking care of their families and maintaining their housing. And it also has added to the worries of business owners, particularly in terms of meeting their payroll and rent obligations.  The Roundtable continues to support the Federal government’s efforts to date including the CARES Act, the FED lending facilities and the expanded unemployment benefits.  In addition to finding ways to improve and extend these programs, we now call on Congress to create a temporary assistance program specifically designed to help COVID impacted residential and commercial tenants meet their rent obligations.”
  • He added, “Such a program would help people and businesses cope with the current economic downturn. It would help building owners maintain their workforce that is necessary to ensure that visitors to buildings are safe and  healthy.  It would ease pressure on financial institutions and local governments.  The next COVID relief bill must include a rent assistance program for people and businesses.”

Data for the Q2 survey was gathered by Chicago-based FPL Associates on The Roundtable’s behalf.  The Roundtable’s Q3 Sentiment Index will be released in early August.

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Commercial Real Estate Executives Report Balanced Real Estate Market Conditions Supported by Stable Economy

Posted on by Trey Jackson

 

The Real Estate Roundtable’s 2020 Q1 Economic Sentiment Index released this week registered a three point increase over the 2019 fourth quarter index. Commercial real estate (CRE) industry executives continue to experience generally balanced market fundamentals across nearly all product types, with limited overbuilding and conservative overall industry debt. CRE executives also positively noted the continued macro-economic job growth and low interest rates. Election year politics and international tensions somewhat temper the overall optimistic sentiment causing some CRE executives to prepare for potential market disruptions later in 2020.    

“As our Q1 index shows, we are beginning a new decade optimistic about continued overall economic growth,” said Roundtable President and CEO, Jeffrey D. DeBoer. “Commercial real estate markets remain fundamentally sound; supply and demand are in relative balance; debt and equity capital markets are functioning and disciplined; wages are rising; and, unemployment is low,” DeBoer added.   

The Roundtable’s Q1 2020 Sentiment Index registered at 52 – a three point increase from the previous quarter.  [The Overall Index is scored on a scale of 1 to 100 by averaging Current and Future Indices; any score over 50 is viewed as positive.]  This quarter’s Current-Conditions Index of 55 increased two points from the previous quarter, while this quarter’s Future-Conditions Index of 50 came in at five points higher compared to Q4 2019.

The report’s Topline Findings include:

  • The Real Estate Roundtable Q1 2020 Sentiment Index registered a score of 52, a three point increase over the last quarter of 2019. Respondents feel the overall economy is stable and the commercial real estate market continues to be supported by strong market fundamentals. Many respondents have stopped attempting to predict an end to this cycle as they see no apparent economic hurdles to current market stability.

  • Despite respondents finding comfort with the current market climate, many are anticipating two phases of the 2020 calendar year: pre-election and post-election. Many noted that election years are notoriously unpredictable and point to a large volume of transactions already underway as platforms attempt to execute before the summer.

  • Asset values remain elevated across most property types and geographies. While certain respondents suggest that asset values have room to grow, others view current pricing as being at peak levels.

  • Debt and equity capital are perceived as widely available in most markets. Many respondents noted the high level of discipline they are witnessing in the debt markets on behalf of lenders. This level of discipline suggests a healthy state in the capital markets, and is a contributing factor to the continuation of the current cycle.

DeBoer noted, “There is natural concern regarding the uncertainty of the coming presidential election.  However, the commercial real estate industry’s leading executives are positive about today’s economy and optimistic about future market conditions.  As the year progresses, The Roundtable will continue working with national policymakers to maintain and strengthen pro-growth policies to create jobs, expand housing opportunities, and benefit the overall economy.”

Data for the Q1 survey was gathered in January by Chicago-based FPL Associates on The Roundtable’s behalf.  For the full survey report, visit http://www.rer.org/Q1-2020-Sentiment-Index/

 

CRE Execs Report Solid Q4 Market Fundamentals Ease Concerns Over Economic Uncertainty and Geopolitics

Posted on by Trey Jackson

Jeffrey DeBoer, President and CEO, The Real Estate Roundtable

Commercial real estate executives report solid fundamentals are countering concerns about economic uncertainty and geopolitics, maintaining an optimistic outlook for market conditions in 2020, according to The Real Estate Roundtable’s 2019 Q4 Economic Sentiment Index released today. 

  • The Q4 Sentiment Index dropped one point from the previous quarter to register a score of 49, which shows a positive view regarding the U.S. economy and real estate market conditions. The Overall Economic Sentiment Index is scored on a scale of 1 to 100 by averaging Current and Future Indices and a score of approximately 50 is viewed as positive.
  • For Q4, the Current-Conditions Index of 53 remains the same as the previous quarter. The Q4 Future-Conditions Index of 45 decreased three points from Q3.  The Overall Sentiment Index has registered between 49 and 77 every quarter since Q3 2009 – except for Q1 2019 (45 score) and Q4 2016 (48 score).
  • “Our Q4 Sentiment Index shows that macro real estate markets remain fundamentally sound and reasonably leveraged, with balanced supply and demand,” said Real Estate Roundtable President and CEO Jeffrey DeBoer (above).  “The markets continue to benefit from business and consumer spending, encouraged by low unemployment, rising wages and low energy prices.”

The report’s Topline Findings include:

  • The Real Estate Roundtable Q4 2019 Economic Sentiment Index registered a score of 49 – a one-point decrease from the previous quarter. Survey participants remain confident in stable market fundamentals, but are concerned about recession talk, troubled international markets and politics.  
  • Sixty-two percent of Q4 survey respondents believe markets conditions will be about the same or better in 2020.  Approximately 82% of respondents see today’s market as about the same or better compared to the same time last year. 
     
  • More than 65% of respondents anticipate asset values to maintain their current level or be somewhat higher going into 2020.  Additionally, half also suggested asset values increased over the past year.  Respondents consistently suggested the number of buyers for assets was decreasing, a factor which is creating challenging selling and buying circumstances. 
     
  • Most respondents feel debt and equity capital are readily available for quality investments.  The availability of capital and refinancing opportunities are offsetting a decline in buyers/investors in some markets.

DeBoer added, “Real estate leaders cautiously await the outcome of several unpredictable influences on the global and domestic economies.  Despite the uncertainty, U.S. real estate markets have shown consistent stability, which positions them well to withstand potential economic gyrations in the future.”  He also said, “Washington policymakers need to keep their focus on policies that encourage long-term job creation and support economic growth in local communities.”

Data for the Q4 survey was gathered in October by Chicago-based FPL Associates on The Roundtable’s behalf.  For the full survey report, visit www.rer.org/q4-2019-sentiment-index-report

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