Category: Economic Growth & CRE

Trump 2016 Campaign Advisor: Foreign Tourism Supports U.S. Economic Growth, Job Creation and Reduces Trade Deficit

Posted on by Trey Jackson

A Dec. 4 report by Heritage Foundation Economist Stephen Moore finds that “promoting and facilitating foreign tourism to the United States can be an effective way to increase American jobs and national output while reducing the nation’s trade deficit.”

According to Tourism to the U.S. Means More Growth, More Jobs, Lower Trade Deficit by Stephen Moore, when international travelers visit the United States, their spending at hotels, retail stores, attraction properties and restaurants totals nearly $250 billion per year. This economic activity supports approximately 1.2 million U.S. jobs and at least $30 billion in worker pay and benefits.

  • Moore advised President Trump during the 2016 campaign and worked closely with Larry Kudlow, now the chief White House economic adviser. (Washington Examiner, Dec. 4)
  • Moore’s analysis shows the impact of foreign travel on the U.S. economy and how the growth rate of visitor spending in the U.S. has fallen in comparison to other nations in recent years. 
  • According to the report, when international travelers visit the United States, their spending at hotels, retail stores, attraction properties and restaurants totals nearly $250 billion per year. This economic activity supports approximately 1.2 million U.S. jobs and at least $30 billion in worker pay and benefits.
  • The report also shows that tourism from abroad lowers the trade deficit.  In 2017, international tourism generated a $77 billion trade surplus — more than any other industry except for financial services — which reduces the U.S. overall trade deficit by an equivalent amount. (Tourism to the U.S. Means More Growth, More Jobs, Lower Trade Deficit by Stephen Moore)
  • The Roundtable is part of the Visit U.S. coalition, which advocates for reauthorization of the Brand USA program — a public-private partnership that markets the United States as a travel destination to international travelers.  The Roundtable joined a coalition of nearly 600 organizations last week in a letter urging Congress to pass legislation that puts Brand USA funding at risk.  (Roundtable Weekly, Nov. 30)
  • Today, Brand USA operates at a 29:1 return on investment-a program with undeniable economic benefits at no cost to the taxpayer.   If Congress does not renew Brand USA this year, $17.7 billion in visitor spending, $5 billion in tax revenue, and 51,000 American jobs generated are at risk. (Return On Investment Analysis, Oxford Economics and Visit U.S. Letter to Congressional Leadership, Nov. 30) 

The economic importance of foreign travel and tourism to the United States’ economy and commercial real estate industry was the focus of a panel discussion during The Roundtable’s 2018 Annual Meeting. (Roundtable Weekly, June 15, 2018).

 

New Reports Measure Impact of Tax Reform on Real Estate Investment and CRE’s Impact on National, State Economies

Posted on by Trey Jackson

Tax reform enacted late last year will cause investment in nonresidential structures to increase by an average of more than $23 billion from 2019-2028, and rise nearly $10 billion this year alone, according to new projections released Monday by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).  (The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2018 to 2028, April 9)

CBO chart: Effects of the 2017 Tax Act on Investment Through Changes in Incentives affecting Nonresidential and Residential Structures. Click to Enlarge— Page 119 of  full CBO Report

The new report isolates and analyzes the impact of recent tax reform legislation on different types of economic activity, including investment in structures. 

Tax reform’s positive impact on nonresidential investment stems from the corporate and individual rate reductions, as well as the new pass-through deduction.  Combined, these changes reduce the user cost of capital.  Cost recovery rules for structures were largely unchanged in the recent tax policy changes.

CBO projects tax reform will have a dampening effect on investment in residential housing: -$9 billion in 2018, and an average of -$13 billion annually from 2019-2028.  These numbers reflect the combined, net effect of a reduction in investment in owner-occupied housing and an increase in investment in rental housing.  Limitations on the deductibility of property taxes and mortgage interest are putting downward pressure on investment in owner-occupied housing.  Rental property investment, in contrast, benefits from the same tax reforms that affect nonresidential investment. 

As a nonpartisan arm of Congress, CBO’s annual economic and budget outlook is widely watched by the private sector for indications of how recent policy changes are affecting the overall economy.

CBO: Trillion Dollar Deficits by 2020

According to the report, borrowing to fund tax cuts and increased spending will also send deficits soaring past $1 trillion in the coming years and increase the overall debt burden to 96 percent of GDP by 2028.  (The Hill, April 9)

Under the  recent $1.3 trillion spending agreement, defense and non-defense spending will increase by nearly $300 billion over the next two years.  (Roundtable Weekly, March 23)

Although economic growth is projected by CBO to rise to 3.3 percent in 2018 – much higher than the 2.6 percent recorded last year – the estimated growth rate will decrease to 2.4 percent in 2019, followed by a drop to an average of just over 1.7 percent for the subsequent eight years of the ten-year budget period.  (The Washington Post, April 10)

Deficits are also forecast to climb dramatically.  CBO anticipates a deficit of $804 billion in 2018 (43 percent higher than it projected just last June, prior to the tax bill and spending agreement).  The amount of debt held by the public will approach 100 percent of GDP over the next ten years, an amount far greater than any period since World War II.  (CNN, April 11)

NAIOP: Building Accounts for 18.0 % of National Economic Activity in 2017

According to the   NAIOP report , combining residential and nonresidential buildings,  as well as infrastructure, the total impact of construction spending (direct, indirect and induced) – accounted for 18.0 percent of all the nation’s economic activity in 2017. 

In related news, a report recently published by the NAIOP Research Foundation shows that commercial real estate in 2017 supported 7.6 million American jobs and contributed $935.1 billion to the nation’s GDP.  (Economic Impacts of Commercial Real Estate, 2018 Edition, NAIOP)

The annual study, authored by economist Stephen S. Fuller, Ph.D, measures the contributions to GDP, salaries and wages generated, and jobs created and supported from the development and operations of commercial real estate – and includes detailed data on commercial real estate development activity in all 50 states. 

According to the study, combining residential and nonresidential buildings (warehouse/industrial, office, retail, health care, entertainment, education, public safety, religious and lodging) – as well as infrastructure for water, sewer, highways and power, the total impact of construction spending (direct, indirect and induced) — accounted for 18.0 percent of all the nation’s economic activity in 2017.

“The importance of commercial development to the U.S. economy is well established, and the industry’s growth is critical to creating new jobs, improving infrastructure, and creating places to work, shop and play,” said Thomas Bisacquino, NAIOP president and CEO.  (NAIOP news release).

CRE as a driving force of national economic growth, as well as tax reform’s impact on the industry, will be a focus of The Roundtable’s April 25, 2018 Spring Meeting, which will feature  Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and other key policymakers.

Trump’s State of the Union Includes Increased Infrastructure Investment Proposal; New Reports Show Debt Ceiling Will Be Reached in March

Posted on by Trey Jackson

In his State of the Union address this week, President Trump called for a bipartisan approach on infrastructure and immigration – policy issues that could define the second year of his Administration before mid-term elections in November.

In his State of the Union address this week, President Trump called for a bipartisan approach on infrastructure and immigration. 

The president’s address included a proposed 50 percent increase in infrastructure spending compared to a 1 trillion dollar goal stated earlier. (USA Today, Jan. 5). “Tonight, I am calling on the Congress to produce a bill that generates at least 1.5 trillion dollars for the new infrastructure investment we need.  Every federal dollar should be leveraged by partnering with state and local governments and, where appropriate, tapping into private sector investment, to permanently fix the infrastructure deficit,” Trump said. 

Although the president’s comments did not include details about how to fund the infrastructure initiative, he also emphasized the need to reduce the average permitting time for infrastructure projects from 10 years to two – noting that the Empire State Building was built in one year. 

Roundtable President and CEO Jeffrey DeBoer commented on the positive economic benefits that such an infrastructure program would bring to the nation. “Modernizing our roads, tunnels, mass transit, drinking water, power grid, and telecommunications systems – in rural and urban areas alike – are vitally important to economic growth, productivity and America’s global competitiveness,” DeBoer said. 

He added, “Real Estate Roundtable members are experienced in addressing the financing, permitting and government partnership issues that frequently slow or stop infrastructure projects.  We intend to provide positive feedback and ideas to all policymakers working to facilitate improvements in our nation’s infrastructure.”  (Roundtable Letter on Infrastructure Funding, Jan. 11) 

The White House said on Wednesday that it will offer Congress detailed principles on the infrastructure proposal in the coming weeks. (Bloomberg, Feb. 1).   

Roundtable President and CEO Jeffrey DeBoer noted that both infrastructure and immigration policies could create more jobs and spur higher wages. 

President Trump also made immigration a key focus of his address, proposing a four-point immigration reform and border security framework. A vote may be held next week in Congress on the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA, or “Dreamers”) immigration program. 

The Roundable’s DeBoer noted that both infrastructure and immigration policies could create more jobs and spur higher wages.  “Pro-growth immigration reform that honors our roots as a nation of immigrants and safeguards our nation’s security is also critically important to continue the upward trajectory of our economy,” DeBoer stated. 

Debt Ceiling  

Looming over policy debates on Capitol Hill and a Feb. 8 scheduled expiration of government funding is the nation’s debt ceiling, which will be reached in March according to reports this week from the Treasury Department and Congressional Budget Office. The debt ceiling allows the government to finance commitments that have already been made — it does not authorize new spending. 

Both reports forecast the government will be unable to meet its debt obligations in March. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on Wednesday urged congressional leaders to “act promptly” to increase the limit. (Reuters, Jan. 31).  

Congressional lawmakers are reportedly working on a fifth Continuing Resolution this fiscal year to fund the government through March 23 — it needs to pass next week to prevent another government shutdown.  (BNA, Feb. 1)