Economic Headwinds and Geopolitical Uncertainty Top CRE Executives’ Views About Q2 Market Conditions

image - Roundtable President and CEO Jeffrey DeBoer

Commercial real estate executives remain optimistic about overall Q2 market conditions despite growing economic headwinds and geopolitical uncertainty, according to The Real Estate Roundtable’s Q2 2022 Economic Sentiment Index released on May 13, 2022.

  • Roundtable President and CEO Jeffrey DeBoer, above, said, “The decline in this quarter’s Real Estate Roundtable Sentiment Index reflects concerns regarding inflationary pressures, interest rate increases, labor shortages and supply chain disruptions. Even so, the overall sentiment of commercial real estate industry senior executives remains positive. Businesses and individuals continue to rethink how real estate meets their evolving working, living, and traveling preferences. Building owners, managers and financiers across the nation are partnering with their business and residential tenants to respond, while also pressing forward in developing and redeveloping buildings to be greener, smarter, and more efficient.”
  • He added, “Our Q2 Sentiment Index reveals especially bright spots for lease demand in a wide swath of the economy, particularly regarding life sciences, industrial, multifamily, and data center assets. At the same time however, high inflation, rising interest rates, labor and supply chain shortages are increasing costs associated with all real estate development and operations. The impact of ongoing war in eastern Europe is another cloud tempering optimism. We urge national policymakers to focus on creating jobs and supporting strong real estate asset values. Both actions would buttress the overall economy and help local community budgets provide needed safety, education and transportation services.”
  • The Roundtable’s Overall Sentiment Index—a measure of senior executives’ confidence and expectations about the commercial real estate market environments—is scored on a scale of 1 to 100 by averaging the scores of Current and Future Economic Sentiment Indices. Any score over 50 is viewed as positive. ­­­­ 

Topline findings include:

Q2 Real Estate Roundtable Economic Sentiment Index chart

  • The Roundtable’s Q2 2022 Economic Sentiment Index registered an overall score of 51, a decrease of 15 points from the previous quarter’s overall score and 26 points lower than a year earlier. Survey respondents remain optimistic but have tempered their expectations due to geopolitical and economic uncertainties, which include rising interest rates, increased inflation, and labor and supply chain shortfalls.
  • Perceptions vary by property type and geography, with industrial, multifamily, life sciences, and data centers continuing to be most favored. As employers continue to roll out return-to-office policies, the demand for office space remains uncertain.
  • Asset values have trended upward across asset classes compared to last year, while forward-looking expectations are starting to taper off.
  • Participants cited a continued availability of debt and equity capital despite heightened concerns over rising interest rates, geopolitical concerns, and inflationary risk.

Data for the Q2 survey was gathered in April by Chicago-based Ferguson Partners on The Roundtable’s behalf.  See the full Q2 report.

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Global Investors in US CRE Report Positive Outlook, Growing Influence of ESG

AFIRE 2022  investments graphic

Global investors plan to increase net investment this year in US commercial real estate, with a focus on multifamily, life science and industrial assets, according to the Association for International Real Estate Investors’ (AFIRE) 2022 Annual International Investor Survey Report. 

Positive Outlook 

  • AFIRE CEO Gunnar Branson said, “With the 2022 AFIRE International Investor Survey Report, we now have a clearer picture on the longer-term impact of the pandemic on real estate investment, with altered cultural attitudes and sustained strength in investment in secondary and tertiary US cities—led by Austin, Atlanta, Boston and Dallas.” 
  • The survey’s topline findings include:
     
    • Seventy-five percent of respondents expect their volume of investment activity and revenue growth to increase over the coming year.

    • Eighty-one percent of surveyed investors agree that the pandemic has now permanently altered cultural attitudes towards US consumption and live-work preferences.

    • Environmental change, housing, and market affordability are top social concerns for investors.

    • Austin, Atlanta, Boston, and Dallas rank top US cities for planned investment this year.

    • London is the only non-US city among the top five for global investment in 2022, followed by New York and Seattle

Market Sectors & ESG Influence 

AFIRE graphic on ESG

  • The AFIRE report shows 90% of survey respondents plan to increase investment in multifamily over the next three to five years, followed by life sciences (77%) and industrial (7 %).
  • The growing influence of Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) criteria is also clear, with survey respondents reporting:

    • Carbon footprint reduction measures (90%) and actionable climate change strategies (89%) are rated as the most important ESG priorities for US real estate investments in the near future.

    • Diversity (74%) and talent attraction/ development (75%) follow environmental factors among ESG trends.

    • Almost nine in ten respondents recognize the future financial benefit of taking action now on ESG. Notably, more than half of respondents (55%) agree that they would accept a lower than-expected rate of return if it meant realizing other social or environmental benefits

The annual survey responses were collected in February from the AFIRE membership—which represents nearly 175 organizations from 23 countries, with approximately US$3 trillion assets under management—and the global institutional investor community.

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Bipartisan Push in Senate Seeks to Include Cannabis Reform Banking Legislation in Economic Competitiveness Bill

US Capitol

A bipartisan push in the Senate is underway to pass a bill that would allow federally regulated banks to provide mortgage and financial services to state-licensed, cannabis-related businesses (CRBs)—without the threat of federal penalties. (The Hill, May 4) 

SAFE & COMPETES 

  • The Secure and Fair Enforcement (SAFE) Banking Act (H.R. 1996) would provide commercial property owners a safe harbor if they lease space to a state-approved CRB. Additionally, owners who lease space to CRBs under SAFE could finance their properties without repercussions from federal anti-money laundering statutes. The Roundtable is a long-standing supporter of the legislation. (Roundtable Weekly, May 3, 2019).
  • The cannabis reform bill was first introduced in Congress in 2013 by Rep. Ed Perlmutter (D-CO) and has passed the House six times—either as an amendment to a larger legislative package or as a standalone bill.  Each time, the legislation has stalled in the Senate. (Rep. Perlmutter news release, Feb. 9)
  • This year, the SAFE Banking Act passed the House on Feb. 4, after it was added as an amendment to the America COMPETES Act, which aims to ease the nation’s supply chain problems and boost domestic manufacturing. 

Next: Senate-House Conference 

  • A House-Senate conference on the America COMPETES Act will aim to negotiate a final bill and pass it with the support of 60 senators before the August recess. (Reuters, May 4)
  • Sen. Steve Daines (R-MT) addressed the SAFE Act  recently with The Hill , stating, “We’ve got nine Republican co-sponsors officially on it, close to 50 Democrats. There are some other Republicans that I’m confident, if we had a vote, would vote for it.” (Sen. Daines news release, March 23, 2021)

An Unbanked Industry 

Map of State Cannabis proposals from Wikipedia

  • Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA) said she is “fighting every which way” to include the SAFE ACT in the final version of the COMPETES Act. “This [cannabis] is a cash-only business right now. It’s dangerous for the employees,” added Murray, who is the third-ranking Democrat in the Senate and a member of the bicameral conference committee. (PoliticoPro, May 5 and The Hill, May 4)
  • Public safety is an urgent reason to include the SAFE Act as part of the conference’s final bill, according to a recent letter sent to Senate leaders by the American Bankers Association and all 50 state banking associations. (April 28 letter)
  • State-licensed cannabis businesses currently operate in 37 states, with additional states weighing legalization. (ABA April 28 letter)

A Senate bill seeking wider cannabis reforms is supported by Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), Senate Finance Committee Chair Ron Wyden (D-OR) and Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ). The Democratic leaders originally planned to introduce their bill this month, but recently announced it will be delayed until August. (PoliticoPro, April 14)

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Senators Joe Manchin and Lisa Murkowski Aim for Bipartisan Compromise on Energy Policy as Alternative to Stalled Build Back Better Act

Sens. Joe Manchin and Lisa Murkowski

Senators Joe Manchin (D-WV), left, and Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), right, have led bipartisan meetings with lawmakers over the last two weeks to explore potential areas of agreement for a scaled-back energy and climate legislative package before the midterm elections. (Politico Morning Energy and E&E News, May 5 | The Hill, April 25) 

BBB Energy Measures 

  • $300 billion in clean energy tax credits were part of last year’s failed, multi-trillion Build Back Better (BBB) Act, which Democrats advanced through the House under fast-track, filibuster-proof budget reconciliation rules. The Roundtable sent a letter in November to congressional tax writers with specific recommendations to improve the BBB bill’s energy tax provisions affecting real estate. (Roundtable Weekly, Nov. 19)
  • The BBB legislation stalled in the Senate after failing to attract key Democratic votes from Sens. Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema (AZ). Manchin’s concern about rising inflation led to his opposition of the bill. (Wall Street Journal, April 28)
  • Last week, Sen. Sinema discussed the post-BBB policy landscape during The Roundtable’s Spring Meeting in Washington. Other featured speakers included Sens. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) and John Hickenlooper (D-CO), who are among the members of the bipartisan group. (Roundtable Weekly, April 29 and E&E News, May 5) 

Search for Agreement 

Sen. Tom Carper (D-DE)

  • This week, the BBB Act’s energy-related tax credits were a focus of the small bipartisan group, which also included Senate Environment and Public Works Chair Tom Carper (D-DE), above.
  • Carper on May 5 said, “I think some progress was made in better understanding what the Finance Committee voted on in the energy tax package that was debated and voted on months ago.” He added, “Republicans will not be anxious to support any kind of reconciliation bill. But let’s see how much we can get done in a bipartisan approach.” (Politico Morning Energy, May 5)
  • Another meeting participant, Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-ND), said general discussions need to eventually produce an agreement on specific measures “long before” the July 4th recess. Cramer also told E&E News that any Republican support for a bipartisan package “depends on how long Santa’s list is.”
  • Support for a bipartisan clean energy package would need to clear a 60-vote threshold in the Senate to pass the evenly-divided chamber before November’s midterm elections. 

Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) recently stated, “I think it’s a make-or-break moment for the elements of Build Back Better that are still on the table. The clock is ticking. This is a perishable moment.” (Wall Street Journal, April 28) 

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Coalition Requests Changes to Treasury Tax Regulations Affecting Outbound Foreign Real Estate Investment

IRS BuildingThe Real Estate Roundtable and four other national trade groups submitted recommendations to modify proposed Treasury regulations regarding partnerships and other pass-through entities that own direct or indirect interests in a passive foreign investment company (PFIC). (Read PFIC comment letter, April 25)

Passive Foreign Investment Companies and Proposed Regulations

  • A PFIC is a foreign corporation that derives a significant share of its income from passive sources or primarily owns assets that are held for the production of passive income, including capital gains, interest, dividends and rent. PFICs commonly arise when structuring investment funds and pooling capital to invest in foreign real estate.
  • Special U.S. tax rules apply to PFIC income. The rules generally accelerate the recognition of PFIC income by PFIC shareholders, or impose an interest charge if the income is deferred. PFIC shareholders can elect which tax regime to apply.
  • Recently proposed Treasury regulations would require any U.S. partner of a partnership that directly or indirectly owns a PFIC to make PFIC-related tax elections at the individual partner level, in addition to other changes.

Recommended Changes

PFIC Coalition logos

  • The April 25 coalition letter suggests the proposed rules would result in an exponential increase in the number of separate PFIC filings, greater administrative burdens and a higher cost of compliance. The rules would also lead to inadvertent failures to file elections since small investors are less well-versed in the PFIC rules than the investment partnerships and their advisors.
  • The letter also urges the IRS to allow partnerships to make PFIC elections at the entity level for all partners, including on behalf of indirect partners who own their interest through an upper-tier partnership. A partnership could make the election for a partner through a partner’s grant of a power of attorney to the general partner of the partnership. An implicit delegation of this authority (e.g., the authority in the partnership agreement to file tax returns) would be sufficient.
  • “If Treasury incorporates these changes,” said Real Estate Roundtable President and CEO Jeffrey DeBoer, “the end result will be less friction and expense for real estate funds as they raise and deploy capital for productive real estate investment.”

Other signatories of the letter include the Alternative Investment Management Association, the American Investment Council, the Managed Funds Association, and the S Corporation Association.

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CRE Leaders and Lawmakers Discuss Domestic Policy Agenda, Ukraine, Climate and Economic Issues

Real Estate Roundtable Spring 2022 Meeting

National lawmakers and Real Estate Roundtable members met this week to discuss domestic and geopolitical issues affecting the economy and industry—including inflation and the Fed; the congressional legislative agenda; and the war in Ukraine. The Roundtable’s 2022 Spring Meeting also featured a discussion on climate-related financial and regulatory proposals. (Roundtable April 2022 Policy Issue Profiles and Executive Summary

Senator Sinema & Market Conditions 

Senator Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ) at RER's 2022 Spring Meeting

  • A discussion with Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ), above, on policymaking in the Senate launched The Roundtable meeting on April 25. 
  • Roundtable Chair John Fish (Chairman & CEOSuffolk) and Roundtable President and CEO Jeffrey DeBoer led a dialogue among industry executives and House and Senate members on CRE market conditions. Roundtable members offered their views on inflationary pressures, supply chain disruptions, and back-to-office challenges. 

Ukraine, Climate and the Fed 

  • On April 26, Roundtable members convened for policy discussions with the following guests:
     
  • Lieutenant Colonel (Ret.) Alexander Vindman
    L to R: Jeffrey DeBoer, Alexander Vindman, John FishA 20-year military veteran, former Director with the White House’s National Security Council, and now a senior advisor with VetVoice Foundation, Mr. Vindman addressed the war in Ukraine. “It is a geopolitical earthquake that will shape how power is used in the 21st century,” Vindman said, adding that an eventual reconstruction effort will require a massive international effort involving public-private partnerships and private equity. (Photo: left to right, Jeffrey DeBoer, Mr. Vindman, and John Fish)
  • Senator Bill Cassidy (R-LA) 
    Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA)
    As a member of the Senate’s Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, Finance, and Joint Economic Committee, Sen. Cassidy provided his insight on the congressional agenda, including economic and energy policy issues. “The real estate sector acts as both a leading indicator and a reflection of what is happening in our communities across the country,” said Cassidy, above left. At right is Roundtable Chair John Fish.
  • Climate Panel
    Tony Malkin and Sen. John Hickenlooper (D-CO)A Roundtable panel addressed climate-related issues and their impact on investor demand, property values and interest rates. (Video of the discussion). The panel also discussed regulatory issues such as the SEC’s proposed climate risk disclosure rule. (Roundtable Weekly, March 25). Speakers included:

Roy Hilton March, Kathleen McCarthy and Bill Stein

  • Former Fed Board Member Kevin Warsh 
    Kevin Warsh and Scott RechlerWarsh, above left, a former member of the Fed Board of Governors (2006-2011), discussed the Fed’s potential actions to temper inflation and guide the economy to a “soft landing” with Roundtable Member Scott Rechler, right, (Chairman & CEO, RXR Realty), who serves on the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Board of Directors. 

Next on The Roundtable’s meeting calendar is the all-member June 16-17 Annual Meeting in Washington, DC. 

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Roundtable Warns SEC Proposed Rules Affecting Private Fund Advisers Pose Unnecessary Burden on Capital Formation and Investment

SEC logo on wall with American flag

The Roundtable submitted comments this week to address the potential negative consequences of recently proposed Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) regulations affecting real estate private equity investment fund advisers. (SEC comment letter, April 25) 

Negative Consequences 

  • The Roundtable’s April 25 comments detail how the proposal could have a negative impact on real estate private fund disclosures, reporting, fees and expenses, and operations—with significant results for the $18-trillion private fund adviser marketplace.
  • The letter also explains how the Commission’s extensive reporting requirements proposed under the new rules would increase compliance costs, decrease returns for all private fund investors and drive smaller fund sponsors away from the market. (SEC Feb. 9 News Release | Proposed Rule | Fact Sheet)
  • The Roundtable letter raises concerns that the SEC proposal, if finalized, could hinder real estate capital formation; harm development and improvement of real properties; and curtail essential economic activity that encourages job creation. 

Interrelated, Multiple Rulemakings 

SEC building

  • The SEC, above, has proposed a number of other complex rules with potentially wide-ranging, significant consequences—all at the same time—and given the public abnormally short, 30-day comment windows to participate in these interrelated rulemakings. (Roundtable Weekly, April 8)
  • The Commission’s private fund adviser proposal is one of many of these rulemakings. This rulemaking alone seeks open-ended and extensive information from stakeholders and the public, including more than 800 individual questions and more than 60 specific questions on the cost-benefit analysis portion.
  • The Real Estate Roundtable and 24 other national business organizations recently submitted comments to SEC Chairman Gary Gensler regarding the need for more time to assemble meaningful stakeholder analysis as part of the rulemaking process. (Coalition letter, April 5) 

The Roundtable’s Real Estate Capital Policy Advisory Committee (RECPAC) will continue to engage the SEC on its various rulemakings and address individual proposals in more detail at its next meeting on June 16 during The Roundtable’s all-member June 16-17 Annual Meeting 

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Biden Administration Issues Rules Affecting Environmental Approval and Sourcing of Major Infrastructure Projects

Infrastructure highway construction San Diego

The Biden administration announced this week the restoration of strict environmental reviews for major infrastructure projects. Additionally, the U.S. Office of Management and Budget (OMB) issued new guidance to help federal agencies implement the “Build America, Buy America” sourcing provisions passed as part of the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) last November. (PoliticoPro and Council on Environmental Quality, April 19)

Project Permitting & Climate Change

  • The environmental guidelines will revive how federal agencies authorize and issue permits for infrastructure construction projects. The regulations reaffirm that Federal agencies must evaluate all environmental impacts – including those associated with climate change – during reviews of proposed projects like bridges, mass transit and energy generation. (Wall Street Journal, April 19)
  • A second, broader proposal with additional changes is expected later this year. It is uncertain how the regulatory review guidance will affect projects authorized in the Roundtable-supported $1 trillion IIJA. (White House Council on Environmental Quality, April 19, 2022 and Roundtable Weekly, Nov. 12, 2021)
  • The restored regulations, which take effect on May 20, will also allow federal agencies to adopt environmental review standards that are more stringent than what is outlined in the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA). The NEPA environmental review rules were in effect since 1970 before the Trump administration scaled them back in 2020. (Reuters, July 15, 2020)
  • Under Trump’s revisions, full environmental-impact statements were required to be completed within two years, while less comprehensive reviews had a one-year deadline. (Wall Street Journal, July 15, 2020)

Infrastructure Materials Sourced in America

Pouring Steel

  • The OMB’s preliminary guidance issued this week instructs federal agencies how to implement new “Buy America” requirements applicable to federally funded infrastructure projects. (Associated Press, April 18)
  • The IIJA requirement provision mandates that all federal agencies must ensure that a “Buy America” requirement applies to all infrastructure projects that receive federal financial assistance, whether or not funded through IIJA. (National Law Review Q&A, April 20)
  • The new requirements, which take effect on May 14, require material purchased for infrastructure projects be produced in the U.S, with waivers included in case there are either not enough U.S. producers or domestic material costs prove excessive. (White House blog, April 20)

The Biden administration’s effort to increase domestic manufacturing and ease supply chain pressures from overseas sourcing comes as inflation has reached a 40-year high ahead of the 2022 midterm elections. (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, April 12)

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Inflation Threatens Biden Agenda as Fed Chair Powell Addresses Raising Interest Rates

White House Spring

President Joe Biden traveled throughout the country this week to promote the benefits of infrastructure projects as rising inflation threatens his administration’s revamped “Building a Better America” domestic agenda. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell affirmed expectations that interest rates will begin increasing next month with consumer inflation running at an annual pace of 8.5 percent. (NBC News, April 19 and Associated Press, April 20) 

Revising “Build Back Better”

  • Democrats are expected to resuscitate parts of the moribund Build Back Better (BBB) Act when Congress returns on April 25 by focusing on a scaled-back package to attract enough party line support in the 50-50 Senate for passage. (Roundtable Weekly, April 15)
  • A key consideration for Senate Democrats and the White House will be agreement on policy priorities with Sens. Joe Manchin (D-WV) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ), who rejected the administration’s BBB social and climate policy package late last year. (Roundtable Weekly, Jan. 21)
  • Sen. Manchin cited inflation as one of his top concerns about passing more spending bills. “Getting inflation under control will require more aggressive action by a Federal Reserve that waited too long to act,” Manchin recently said. (The Hill, April 12)
  • Sen. Sinema will discuss the current policy landscape in Congress with Real Estate Roundtable members next week in Washington DC during The Roundtable’s April 25 Spring Meeting.
  • Rising consumer prices and inflation have been a focus of Republicans as the mid-term elections are only about six months away. (BGov and Fortune, April 20)
  • House Ways and Means Committee Ranking Member Kevin Brady (R-TX) on April 12 discussed inflation’s threat to small businesses and the administration’s agenda on CNBC’s Squawkbox

Fed & Interest Rates

Fed Chair Jerome Powell

  • The Consumer Price Index’s rise to 8.5 percent last month – the fastest annual increase in 40 years – sparked expectations that the Fed will move aggressively to raise interest rates. (Bureau of Labor Statistics, April 12 and CBS News, April 21) 
  • The Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee will meet next on May 3-4 to consider monetary policy, the discount rate and consider a reduction in the nearly $9 trillion in bonds on its balance sheet.
  • Powell, above, commented  yesterday on the Fed’s target for annual price increases. “We really are committed to using our tools to get 2 percent inflation back,” he said, adding, “It’s absolutely essential to restore price stability.” 
  • Powell also noted a half point interest rate increase next month may be the start of future interest rate increases. “I would say 50 basis points will be on the table for the May meeting,” he stated. (CNBC, April 21)
  • He also said the Fed will act to get demand and supply back in balance, “so that inflation moves down and does so without a slowdown that amounts to a recession.” (CNBC, April 21)
  • The Fed also released this week its latest “Beige Book” containing anecdotal information on current economic conditions. The report stated “supply chain backlogs, labor market tightness, and elevated input costs continued to pose challenges” and that “outlooks for future growth were clouded by the uncertainty created by recent geopolitical developments and rising prices.” (Fed’s Beige book, April 20) 

The Roundtable’s Spring Meeting next week will include a discussion with former Fed Board Member Kevin Warsh on inflation, interest rate expectations, potential asset bubbles and other economic challenges.

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Roundtable CEO Questions Wisdom of Administration’s Proposed Carried Interest Tax Increase

Jeffrey DeBoer, Real Estate Roundtable President and CEO

This week, Real Estate Roundtable President and CEO Jeffrey DeBoer, above, challenged the Administration’s recently proposed budget, which would recharacterize nearly all real estate carried interest as ordinary income, in Bisnow, a prominent commercial real estate media outlet. (Bisnow, April 13) 

Taxing Carried Interest as Ordinary Income 

  • President Biden’s budget includes tax proposals recycled from last year that failed to pass congressional  negotiations, including taxing long-term capital gains at ordinary income rates – and taxing carried interest in real estate partnerships as ordinary income. (Roundtable Weekly, April 1) 
  • In Bisnow’sTaxing Carried Interest as Ordinary Income: The Idea that Never Dies, but Never Becomes Law Either,” DeBoer noted, “The president’s carried interest budget proposal would, for the first time, limit capital gain tax treatment to the return on cash and cash-equivalent investment. This would ignore the reality that real estate owners and developers bear significant financial risks beyond their capital contribution.”
  • DeBoer added, “The capital gains tax incentive has always recognized and rewarded other factors beyond just invested cash, including the assumption of construction, litigation and market risk, as well as the sweat equity associated with owning investment real estate.
  • Targeting tax evaders and illegal transactions is appropriate, DeBoer noted, but he emphasized that penalizing entrepreneurship and discouraging noncash risk-taking by recharacterizing all carried interest as ordinary income would be a mistake.
  • Proposals to recharacterize carried interest as ordinary income have been introduced in Congress perennially since 2007. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 included a provision extending the holding period requirement from one to three years for carried interest to qualify for the reduced long-term capital gains tax rate. 

Carried interest and other tax issues outlined in The Roundtable’s recently released 2022 Policy Agenda will be discussed during the April 25-26 Spring Meeting (Roundtable-level members only) in Washington DC.  

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