Author: Abigail Grenadier

Incoming Trump Administration Prepares Energy Policy Shift

Posted on by Abigail Grenadier

This week’s confirmation hearings shed light on the Trump Administration’s ambitious energy agenda, including plans to expand American energy production, streamline project approvals, and explore a carbon tariff on imports. (PoliticoPro, Jan. 16)

“All of the Above” Energy Policy

  • President-elect Trump has prioritized “drill, baby, drill” as a cornerstone of his agenda, emphasizing energy independence and dominance through increased domestic oil and gas production.
  • Chris Wright, the Energy Secretary nominee, told the Senate Energy Committee on Wednesday that he would use the role to “unleash American energy at home and abroad” if confirmed. (Reuters, Jan. 15)
  • Wright said in his opening statement that he would focus on three objectives: removing barriers for energy projects, accelerating innovation by the national laboratories, and advancing U.S. energy domestically and abroad. (Roll Call, Jan. 16)
  • North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum, the Interior Secretary nominee, said at his Thursday confirmation hearing that the U.S. must expand domestic energy production and electricity generation to meet growing demand, particularly from AI technologies. (Politico, Jan. 16 | Roll Call, Jan. 16 )
  • Burgum supports an “all-of-the-above” approach that would utilize renewables and fossil fuels.  Trump has also tapped Burgum to lead a White House-based energy council that would coordinate policy across the federal government. (Politico, Jan. 9)
  • Former Representative Lee Zeldin, the nominee for EPA Administrator, said at his Thursday hearing he would work in a bipartisan manner with career staff to fulfill the agency’s mission. (PoliticoPro, Jan. 16 | The Hill, Jan. 16)
  • Zeldin vowed to address climate change without “suffocating the economy,” and committed to private sector collaboration to “promote common sense, smart regulation.” (NBC News, Jan. 16 | Washington Post, Jan. 16)

Carbon Tariff Proposal

  • During his Thursday confirmation hearing, Treasury Secretary nominee Scott Bessent (see Policy Landscape story above) expressed interest in a carbon tariff on imports, suggesting it could be part of a broader Trump administration strategy to raise revenue, counter unfair trade practices, and boost negotiating leverage.
  • Bessent indicated the potential for such measures to align with the administration’s broader trade and economic goals. (PoliticoPro, Jan. 16)
  • Recently, Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) proposed a bill, the “Foreign Pollution Fee Act” that would impose a “foreign pollution fee” on imported carbon-intensive products – including construction materials. (E&E News, Dec. 12)
  • The bill’s co-sponsor, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), spoke about the bill at Bessent’s hearing. “If you want to clean up the environment, a carbon fee seems to be a good way to do it, to punish China and India for bad carbon practices,” Graham said. (Politico, Jan. 16)
  • The Roundtable submitted comments today on the Foreign Pollution Fee Act. The letter raises concerns regarding the impact of a carbon tariff on affordable housing constriction, rebuilding after natural disasters, and technical issues on calculating “indirect emissions” associated with product manufacturing.

Other Energy News This Week

  • President Biden issues executive order to advance U.S. artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure: President Biden issued an executive order directing agencies to lease federal land for “gigawatt-scale” to support new data center construction. (AP News, WH Press Release, Jan. 14)
  • 179D energy efficiency tax deduction: The Energy Department (DOE) launched the 179D Portal, offering tools for new commercial construction and retrofits to estimate energy savings and qualify for potential federal tax incentives. (DOE Press Release, Jan. 14)
  • California wild fires raise electricity costs: The Los Angeles wildfires, which caused over $250 billion in damages and severely impacted the region’s electrical infrastructure, have driven a nearly 50% increase in California’s residential electricity rates since 2019, raising concerns about the fairness of passing these wildfire-related costs onto customers. (Politico, Jan. 15)
  • Maryland building emissions standards lawsuit: A coalition of trade organizations filed a federal lawsuit arguing that the Maryland Building Energy Performance Standards (BEPS) is illegal because it is “pre-empted” due to its conflict with federal laws. The Maryland law mandates large buildings to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20% within five years and achieve net-zero emissions by 2040. The lawsuit claims the rules exacerbate the housing crisis, strain the power grid, and violate consumer choice. (Baltimore Banner, Jan. 14 | (Baltimore Sun, Jan. 16)

House Freedom Caucus Members Propose Ending Deductibility of State and Local Business Taxes

Posted on by Abigail Grenadier

This week, House Freedom Caucus Members proposed ending the ability of businesses to deduct their state and local business and property taxes on their federal income tax returns.  (Politico, Jan. 15)

Why It Matters

  • The proposal was raised as a potential offset for relief from the SALT cap on individuals. 
  • The proposal was also included in a “menu” of potential policy options prepared by the House Budget Committee for tax and budget reconciliation legislation.  (PoliticoPro, Jan. 17)
  • The Budget Committee has a key role in setting the overall size of any reconciliation bill, but the actual details of tax changes fall under the jurisdiction of the House Ways and Means Committee.

Industry & Congressional Response

  • “Property taxes and other state-level business taxes are a basic cost of doing business.  Denying the deductibility of these business taxes is nonsensical and would be devastating to American businesses, and especially U.S. real estate.  The purpose of the income tax is to measure and tax income.  Under the proposal, we would no longer have an income tax, we would have a tax on gross revenue.  It would penalize existing property owners, artificially distort business decisions, and raise flashing red lights for anyone even considering a long-term capital investment in the United States,” said Jeffrey DeBoer, President and CEO of The Real Estate Roundtable.
  • Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) addressed the proposal on the Senate floor earlier today.  (Senate Democrats, Jan. 17)
  • “There is no scenario under God’s green Earth that New York taxpayers will ever accept another unfair SALT cap like the House Freedom Caucus proposes….I will do everything I can, first to remove the entire SALT cap tax, and second to never let a new proposal that for the first time imposes the SALT cap on businesses, small and large, to be put into effect. I’m going to do everything I can to fight this dastardly proposal,” said the Senator.
  • The House Freedom Caucus is one of many factions in the House Republican Conference that will have significant leverage over any tax changes in 2025 due to Republicans’ extraordinary slim majority in the House.

House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Jason Smith (R-MO) and House SALT Caucus Co-Chair Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-NY) are scheduled to address Roundtable members at the State of the Industry Meeting next week.

Assessing the Impact of the LA Fires and Insurance Markets

Posted on by Abigail Grenadier

The fires in Los Angeles this week have caused tremendous damage to lives and property, demonstrating how risks from natural catastrophes are a growing challenge to both people and industries across the country. National policy solutions are needed to prepare for the future and effectively manage natural catastrophe risk.  (Associated Press, Jan. 11 | RAND, Jan.16)

Historic Damages

  • The devastating fires tearing through Los Angeles are poised to become the costliest in US history and are fueling an insurance crisis in California, raising questions about how millions of homeowners will secure coverage against future disasters. (Associated Press, Jan. 11)
  • Damages from the LA fires could reach up to $275 billion after the blazes ripped through some of Los Angeles County’s wealthiest neighborhoods. (Orange County Register, Jan. 16)
  • The staggering costs stem from fires hitting densely populated areas filled with some of the nation’s priciest real estate, says Accuweather’s Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter. (Associated Press, Jan. 11)

Insurance Impact

  • The wildfires that destroyed homes in multiple sections of the Los Angeles area will test California’s efforts to stabilize the state’s insurance marketplace after many insurers stopped issuing residential policies due to the high fire risk. (KNBC, Jan.10)
  • The California FAIR Plan was created in 1968 and provides basic fire insurance coverage for high-risk properties when traditional companies would not. (NYT, Jan.14 | Bloomberg, Jan. 15)
  • Some are worried that the FAIR Plan won’t have enough funds to cover the damages, but FAIR Plan spokesperson Hillary Mclean assured the public that “the FAIR Plan has payment mechanisms in place, including reinsurance, to ensure all covered claims are paid.” (KNBC, Jan.10)
  • The U.S. Treasury’s Federal Insurance Office (FIO) released a report Thursday, showing homeowners insurance costs are rising faster than inflation, with premiums 82% higher in high-risk ZIP codes due to climate-related disasters. (Treasury News Release, Jan. 16)
  • The report based on extensive data from 2018-2022, highlights increasing challenges for homeowners and insurers alike, as nonrenewal rates and claims costs surge in areas most affected by severe weather events. (CNBC, Jan. 16)

Policymaker and Industry Reaction

  • Policymakers are working to streamline the permitting process to expedite recovery and are actively monitoring the insurance marketplace. Senator Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI) told CBS News “We will be watching to see whether the collapse of a trembling home insurance market accelerates after this added shock”. (CBS News, Jan.16)
  • California Governor Gavin Newsom has temporarily suspended permitting and review requirements under the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) and the California Coastal Act. The move aims to expedite the rebuilding process for fire victims, enabling faster restoration of homes and businesses, Newsom said. (GlobeSt., Jan. 14)
  • The proliferation of natural catastrophe threats has raised concerns about commercial insurance coverage for real estate.
  • Republicans on the Senate Banking Committee, led by Senators John Kennedy (R-LA) and Mike Rounds (R-SD), are drafting legislation to reform the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) and provide broader disaster relief for victims of catastrophes like wildfires, floods, and storms. (The Hill, Jan. 14)
  • The proposed initiative aims to expand and improve disaster coverage without relying on taxpayer subsidies, addressing long-term issues with the NFIP and creating a more comprehensive program for natural disasters.

Real Estate Industry Response

  • The real estate industry continues to lead in the response and recovery to these fires.
  • A group of 15 leading multifamily firms and commercial real estate industry groups has quickly banded together to support residents and rebuild Los Angeles following the wildfires that struck the city. RER members, including Cityview, Lincoln Property Company, and Marcus & Millichap support the coalition. (ConnectCRE, Jan. 16)

Natural catastrophe insurance will be discussed at RER’s upcoming Homeland Security Task Force and Risk Management Committee Meeting next week at our 2025 State of the Industry Meeting in Washington, DC.

HUD Nominee Scott Turner Outlines Housing Policy Priorities in Senate Hearing

Posted on by Abigail Grenadier

Scott Turner, President-elect Donald Trump’s nominee for Secretary of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), emphasized the transformative potential of Opportunity Zones (OZs) and collaboration with the private sector during his Senate nomination hearing on Thursday. (The Hill, Jan. 16)

Senate Hearing Recap

  • At the hearing, members of the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs asked HUD nominee Scott Turner how he would address pressing housing challenges, including the affordable housing crisis, the rising rate of homelessness, and HUD reform. (Turner Testimony)

  • There is an estimated shortage of 5.5 million housing units, resulting in high rents and home prices in many parts of the country. Additionally, HUD released its 2024 Annual Homelessness Assessment Report, which found an 18 percent increase in the estimated point-in-time count of homeless individuals from 2023 to 2024.

  • Speaking on the housing challenges facing the country, Turner said, “We have a housing crisis in our country. We have the American people and families that are struggling every day…HUD, if you will, is failing at its most basic mission, and that has to come to an end.”

  • Turner continued, “As a country, we’re not building enough housing. We need millions of homes, all kinds of homes, multifamily, single-family, duplex, condo, manufacturing housing, you name it…I believe that we need to bring HUD staff back to the office to do the job and empower them to serve the American people.”

HUD Nominee’s Policy Priorities

  • Turner, who previously ran the White House Opportunity and Revitalization Council during Trump’s first term, highlighted Opportunity Zones, public-private partnerships, and tailored local solutions as key elements of his plan to address the housing crisis.

  • As executive director of the Council, Turner was responsible for carrying out the implementation of Opportunity Zones, which were passed as part of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (TCJA).

  • The Roundtable—along with 22 other real estate organizations—urged the Senate to approve Turner’s nomination, writing in a Jan. 14 letter to the Senate committee that Turner is well-equipped to lead as Secretary of HUD.

The Power of Opportunity Zones

  • RER has long championed Opportunity Zones (OZs) as a transformative tool to stimulate economic growth and increase the supply of affordable housing in low-income areas. By creating tax incentives for investments in designated low-income census tracts, OZs have channeled investment into areas most in need.

  • Since its inception, the Opportunity Zones program has raised nearly $100 billion in private capital, catalyzed the creation of more than 500,000 jobs, and spurred multifamily housing developments in underserved areas. 20% of multifamily units under construction were located in OZs as of early 2024. (The New Localism, Jan. 9)

  • Given the program’s success, prominent experts, including Bruce Katz (Founding Director of the Nowak Metro Finance Lab at Drexel University) and Steven G. Glickman (co-founder and former CEO of the Economic Innovation Group, former senior economic adviser in the Obama White House) have advocated for making OZs a permanent part of the tax code to ensure its long-term benefits. (Governing, Jan. 2)

  • RER has called on Congress to improve and extend the program, which is set to expire along with other key provisions of the TCJA at the end of this year.

RER will continue to work with policymakers in Congress and officials at HUD to build on the success of programs like Opportunity Zones. Through bipartisan policies that harness the power of the private sector to significantly increase the supply of affordable housing, the U.S. can make meaningful progress toward ending the housing crisis.

This Week on Capitol Hill: Confirmation Hearings and Tax Policy Debates

Posted on by Abigail Grenadier

This week, the Senate conducted confirmation hearings for several of President-elect Donald Trump’s Cabinet nominees, providing critical insights into the nominees’ perspectives and potential policy directions on real estate, housing, the economy, and tax policy under the incoming administration.

Senate Confirmation Hearings

  • Scott Bessent – Nominee for Secretary of the Treasury: Treasury nominee Scott Bessent faced bipartisan scrutiny during his Senate Finance Committee confirmation hearing over tax policy, tariffs, and China on Thursday. (Axios, Jan 17)
  • He emphasized the importance of extending the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, stating, “This is the single most important economic issue of the day.” (Roll Call, Jan. 16 | PoliticoPro, Jan. 16)
  • “We must make permanent the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and implement new pro-growth policies to reduce the tax burden on American manufacturers service workers and seniors,” Bessent said in his testimony. He also praised the Opportunity Zones program as a “resounding success,” highlighting its potential to address housing challenges, promote inner-city redevelopment, and support rural growth. (Politico, Jan, 16)
  • He also called for spending cuts and shifts in existing taxes to offset the costs that extending the tax cuts would add to the federal deficit. (AP News, Jan. 16)
  • Lee Zeldin, nominee for EPA Administrator, Chris Wright, nominee for Energy Secretary, and Doug Burgum, nominee for Housing and Urban Development Secretary, also testified this week and are expected to be confirmed. (see Energy story below)
  • Sean Duffy – Nominee for Secretary of the Department of Transportation: Appearing before the Senate Commerce Committee, Duffy emphasized his commitment to safety and pledged to streamline regulatory processes that delay infrastructure projects. Promising to uphold the 2021 infrastructure law, he stated, “I commit to implementing the law,” and vowed to expedite funding distribution, addressing delays to ensure critical projects move forward efficiently. (Politico, Jan. 17)

Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) Nominee

  • On Thursday, Trump announced he would nominate Bill Pulte for Director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA). (HousingWire | Reuters Jan. 16)
  • If confirmed, Pulte would oversee Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) standing behind roughly half of the U.S. residential mortgage market.
  • The Trump administration is expected to pursue a plan to release Fannie and Freddie from government control. (GlobeSt., Jan. 17)
  • GOP lawmakers have raised the idea of including language to mandate Fannie and Freddie’s release in this year’s reconciliation package as a way to offset the cost of extending expiring tax cuts. (Politico, Jan. 16)

House Ways and Means Committee Hearing – TCJA

  • The tax debate kicked off Tuesday with the House Committee on Ways and Means’ first hearing on extending key provisions of the TCJA led by Chairman Jason Smith (R-MO). (Fox News, Jan. 14)
  • At the hearing, lawmakers discussed expiring provisions of the TCJA including the SALT deduction, Section 199-A, opportunity zones, and child tax credits.
  • Congress faces the dual challenge of addressing expiring tax provisions while managing fiscal pressures. While bipartisan cooperation is possible on certain issues like affordable housing, divisions over business tax rates, SALT deductions, and the debt ceiling could stall progress.

What’s Next: RER President & CEO Jeffrey DeBoer will be on Marcus & Millichap’s 2025 Economic & CRE Outlook webinar next Thursday, January 23. He will be joined by Mark Zandi and a panel of industry leaders discussing the macro environment and the potential policies of the new administration and key trends on jobs, the FED outlook, tax policy expectations and more. (Register)

Tax Policy 2025: Competing Strategies and CRE Priorities

Posted on by Abigail Grenadier

The Real Estate Roundtable (RER) is focused on advancing a tax code that encourages investment, supports economic growth, and ensures fair treatment for commercial real estate. With significant provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) set to expire, tax policy is already dominating early Congressional discussions.

Congressional Dynamics

  • The tax debate is set to kick off on Tuesday, Jan. 14, with the House Committee on Ways and Means’ first hearing on extending key provisions of the TCJA led by Chairman Jason Smith (R-MO).
  • Congress faces the dual challenge of addressing expiring tax provisions while managing fiscal pressures. While bipartisan cooperation is possible on certain issues like affordable housing, divisions over business tax rates, SALT deductions, and the debt ceiling could stall progress.
  • House Speaker Mike Johnson and top House leaders doubled down on their plan to bundle border, tax, and energy policies into a single bill. Meanwhile, Senate leaders are continuing with their two-bill approach, aiming for faster legislative wins for the new administration. (The Hill, Jan. 10)
  • The two chambers are effectively competing to see which strategy can deliver results more quickly.
  • Trump indicated he can live with either approach. “I like one, big, beautiful bill,” Trump said at a press conference on Tuesday. On Wednesday after meeting with Senate Republicans, he told reporters “Whether it’s one bill or two bills, it’s going to get done one way or the other. The end result is the same.” (Axios, Jan. 8 | The Hill, Jan. 8)
  • Speaker Johnson and Republicans are determined to pass their budget blueprint by the end of February. Johnson told reporters Thursday that he’s still working with the Senate to properly “sequence” the massive effort. (PoliticoPro, Jan. 9)
  • On Thursday, Senate Majority Leader John Thune refused to commit to the House’s preferred approach and called it an ongoing conversation. “Obviously we want to give the House as much space as possible,” he told reporters. “They believe they can move and execute on getting a bill across the finish line fairly quickly. But we are prepared to move here, as well.” (PoliticoPro, Jan. 9)
  • “We’re going to be having conversations with each chairman to make sure that the targets they’re given are achievable within their committee, and then ultimately get pulled back into budget reconciliation to give us the ability to do all the things you want to do,” House Majority Leader Steve Scalise told Punchbowl News. (Punchbowl News, Jan. 10)

Senate Bipartisan Outreach

  • Eleven moderate Senate Democrats, led by Sens. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) and Mark Warner (D-VA) wrote to Republican leaders, offering to work with them on extending expiring tax cuts and raising the debt ceiling, proposing bipartisan reforms to balance tax policy and fiscal responsibility. (PoliticoPro, Jan. 10)
  • The letter stated the group was willing to cut spending, protect family-oriented tax policies, maintain competitive business tax rates, — and indicated that they could provide enough votes to allow Republicans to overcome a filibuster in the Senate without having to go through the reconciliation process.
  • While the GOP is unlikely to accept the offer amid internal divisions, the proposal highlights potential avenues for compromise on tax reform and debates ahead.

Roundtable Tax Priorities for 2025

RER encourages lawmakers to ensure that any major tax legislation in 2025 retain or include:

  • The reduced tax rate on capital gains. 
  • Tax fairness for partnerships and pass-through entities.
  • Safeguard like-kind exchanges.
  • Extend, improve, and enact smart tax policies to address the severe housing shortage.
  • Tax rules that encourage, rather than deter, foreign investment in U.S. real estate.

As negotiations and debates continue, RER remains committed to working with lawmakers to ensure the U.S. maintains a competitive tax code that encourages capital formation, rewards entrepreneurial risk-taking, and supports policy objectives, including accessible and affordable housing and safe and healthy communities.

Navigating Rising Costs and Policy Challenges in CRE for 2025

Posted on by Abigail Grenadier

While CRE leaders are optimistic about 2025, clear headwinds emerging from escalating construction costs and trade policies threaten to slow development activity and increase strain on industry stakeholders. These challenges demand coordinated efforts between policymakers and the private sector to stabilize costs, address labor shortages, and promote balanced trade measures.

Market & Financial Headwinds in CRE Construction

  • The commercial construction sector is facing mounting challenges that could reshape its trajectory.
  • Labor Shortages: Baby boomer retirements are thinning the skilled workforce, with an estimated 5.4% of construction workers aged 65 or older and poised to exit the industry.
  • Simultaneously, a larger share of young adults is pursuing college over the trades, creating a gap in new talent pipelines. Overall, the national number of job vacancies in construction has doubled between 2017 and 2023. (ConnectCRE, Jan. 2 | Construction Dive, Jan. 2)
  • Rising Capital and Material Costs: Construction loans are difficult to get and relatively expensive, with interest rates hovering above 8%, while material costs remain elevated due to inflation and lingering tariffs on construction imports like lumber, steel, copper, and cement. (ConnectCRE, Jan. 2)

Tariff Proposals

  • Recent trade and policy developments could exacerbate these challenges.
  • Trump Administration’s Tariff Proposals: President-elect Trump has proposed sweeping tariff increases, including a 60% tariff on Chinese imports and an additional 25% tariff on goods from Mexico and Canada.
  • These measures could raise U.S. tariffs to their highest levels since 1934 and result in an $800 billion annual increase in tariffs across markets, according to PwC estimates​​. (Barron’s Jan. 3, Construction Dive)
  • Steel Supply Chain Disruption: President Biden’s decision to block Nippon Steel’s acquisition of U.S. Steel has raised concerns about the future of one of America’s largest steelmakers.
  • The acquisition would bolster U.S. Steel’s production capacity and supply chain stability with investments such as $2.7 billion in capital for aging U.S. steel plants, a shared $500 million annual research & development budget, and the transfer of cutting-edge blast furnace technology to U.S. Steel.
  • With construction being the primary steel-consuming sector, accounting for over 50% of steel consumption, U.S. Steel’s uncertain trajectory could pose challenges for steel-dependent CRE projects. (The Washington Post, Jan. 3 | The Wall Street Journal, Jan. 3)​​

Office Markets & Return to Work

  • The U.S. office market faces a stark divide: while overall vacancy rates remain high due to aging buildings and remote work policies, demand for top-tier office space with modern amenities is surging in major cities. (Axios, Jan. 10 | WSJ, Jan. 7)
  • Tenants occupied 22% more premium office space in late 2023 compared to pre-pandemic levels, according to CBRE. (WSJ, Jan. 7)
  • Many outdated buildings have the potential for conversion to residential use, while landlords of premium properties have regained leverage, scaling back tenant concessions for the first time in four years. (WSJ, Jan. 7)
  • JPMorgan Chase may soon require all employees to return to the office. This move follows a growing trend among major corporations, including Amazon, AT&T, and Walmart, that are ending remote work and returning to pre-pandemic office norms. (Axios, Jan. 1 | Forbes, Jan. 9)
  • RER Board Member Scott Rechler (Chairman & CEO, RXR) highlighted stronger office markets, despite vacancies, and increased transactions and property conversions for New York City in 2025 this week on CNBC’s Squawk Box. (CNBC Squawk, Jan. 8)

As rising costs and shifting policies reshape the CRE landscape, RER is committed to working with policymakers to stabilize material costs, innovate solutions to labor shortages, and adjust trade policies to avoid disproportionate impacts on the CRE sector.

Electric Grid Strain: CRE’s Role in Addressing Energy Challenges

Posted on by Abigail Grenadier

Demands for artificial intelligence (AI), advanced manufacturing, electric vehicles, and building electrification are straining the U.S. electric grid—creating challenges and opportunities for commercial real estate (CRE). (Deloitte, Dec. 9)

Why it Matters

  • The grid is at a “tipping point.” Heightened demands for power by consumers, businesses, and government are posing significant risks to energy reliability and driving data center construction to meet the needs. (PoliticoPro, Dec. 18)
  • The organization authorized by Congress to assess grid capacity highlighted last month the “critical reliability challenges” needed to satisfy “escalating energy growth,” as retiring power plants age-out of service. The report also noted the need to accelerate construction of transmission projects to bring electricity to the nation’s cities and suburbs. (N. American Electric Reliability Corp., 2024 Assessment.)
  • President Joe Biden is expected to issue an executive order as soon as today to boost the construction of data centers on federal land to support AI, while also aiming to increase geothermal and nuclear energy production to power them. (PoliticoPro, Jan. 9)
  • Data center construction is surging to meet demand with site selection largely driven by power availability. Microsoft and Meta recently announced billions of data center investments. (E&E News, Jan. 10 | CBRE, Aug. 2024)
  • The Department of Energy (DOE) estimates data centers could consume up to 12% of U.S. electricity by 2028, largely attributed to demand from cloud and AI providers. (DOE News Release, Dec. 20)
  • As The Roundtable’s Policy Guide on building performance standards states, the transition to a digital economy raises serious concerns about electricity availability. “AI could soon need as much electricity as an entire country” as “[v]ast swaths of the U.S. are at risk of running short of power.” (Roundtable Weekly, Oct. 11)

Bipartisan House Report on AI

  • Policymakers and industry leaders are focusing more than ever on solutions to expand power generation and modernize the grid.
  • The Bipartisan House Task Force on AI released a report last month finding that AI’s critical role in U.S. economic and national security interests hinges on a robust power grid. (House AI Report, December 2024).
  • Recommendations from the Bipartisan House AI Task Force report include:
    • Develop metrics and standards to measure energy use and efficiency.
    • Allocate infrastructure costs to customers who benefit most from upgrades.
    • Use AI to improve energy infrastructure, production, and efficiency.

EPA’s Energy Data Campaign

  • Looking ahead, utilities, policymakers, and data center operators must collaborate to balance priorities such as grid upgrades, renewable energy procurement, water resource management, and equitable cost allocation. (Deloitte, Dec. 9)
  • This week, EPA continued its building energy data campaign to assist real estate owners in coordinating with utilities to access tenant space energy data.
  • To aid both owners, operators, and utility representatives in understanding this issue and potential solutions, EPA has prepared a number of energy data resources that can be found here.

A resilient electric grid is critical to sustaining economic growth. These issues will be featured in discussions at The Roundtable’s State on the Industry meeting on Jan. 22-23.

Congress Faces Shutdown Threat Amid Funding Battles

Posted on by Abigail Grenadier

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) announced this afternoon that the House will vote tonight on a revised version of the bill that was defeated on Thursday, excluding the debt ceiling provision advocated by President-elect Trump. (Politico, Live updates)

Latest Funding Plan

  • On Thursday, Democrats and a group of Republicans rejected a second Continuing Resolution (CR) proposal in a decisive 174-235 vote, which fell short of the two-thirds majority needed under expedited rules.  (Axios, Dec. 20)
  • Elon Musk and President-elect Trump amplified tensions in Congress, urging Johnson to abandon the bipartisan agreement he reached with top Democrats in favor of a Republican-preferred measure earlier in the week. (AP, Dec. 20)
  • By rejecting the Trump-endorsed proposal, Democrats signaled they would not support legislation unless they were included in negotiations.

Roundtable Urges National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) Extension

  • The Roundtable and 11 other organizations wrote to Congressional leadership urging swift action to extend the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) before its December 20 expiration. (NFIP Letter, Dec. 20)
  • The letter emphasized the urgency of passing the “NFIP Extension Act of 2024” in the event of a government funding lapse. This legislation, already introduced in both the House and Senate, would extend the NFIP through September 30, 2025, ensuring continuity and aligning the program with the end of the fiscal year.

Debt Ceiling

  • House Republican leaders unveiled a plan this afternoon to raise the debt ceiling by $1.5 trillion in early 2025, paired with $2.5 trillion in cuts to mandatory spending. (Politico, Dec. 20)
  • GOP leaders aim to use the reconciliation process next year to pass these measures with a simple majority vote in the Senate, bypassing the filibuster. The proposal directly challenges President-elect Donald Trump’s demands for immediate bipartisan action to raise the debt ceiling.
  • GOP leaders hope to leverage this budget tool to achieve major policy goals, such as increased border security and expiring tax cuts, but face challenges in rallying the slim majorities they will have in both chambers when the new Congress is sworn in. (Politico, Dec. 20)

What’s next: The GOP plan sets the stage for a contentious fiscal battle in 2025, as the party grapples with how to balance its policy priorities against the looming threat of economic fallout.

CRE’s Year of Transformation: Lessons from 2024 and Outlook for 2025

Posted on by Abigail Grenadier

As 2024 comes to a close, the commercial real estate industry has made significant strides in recovery and adaptation.

2024 Roundtable Highlights

  • Over the past year, industry confidence has rebounded. RER’s Q4 Sentiment Index reached 73—a three-year high—and a 12-point jump from Q1 of this year. Despite ongoing challenges, the industry has demonstrated resilience and emerged stronger.
  • RER President & CEO Jeffrey DeBoer spoke about the industry’s 2025 priorities in a recent episode of the Leading Voices in Real Estate podcast, saying, “Real estate cuts across all aspects of our economy, and it’s what makes cities strong. You can’t find a time in history where nations have been strong without healthy cities. Right now, cities are struggling, and we want to help them back.”
  • Looking ahead to 2025, RER remains focused onadvancing policies that support liquidity, innovation, and adaptive reuse to ensure CRE remains a pillar of economic growth and community development.
  • 2025 Policy Priorities Survey: Next week we will be distributing our Policy Issues Survey to all members to gather input on our policy priorities for 2025.

Top Takeaways from 2024

Construction skyline
  • Key drivers of the industry’s growing confidence include easing interest rates and improving financial conditions, which have helped to stabilize asset values and encourage investment activity. By year-end, easing monetary policy and growing investor confidence have started to open up capital availability, with more progress expected in 2025. (Roundtable Weekly, Nov. 8)

  • Office-to-residential conversions saw a banner year, with more than 70 projects completed in 2024. Bolstered by the growing number of state and local incentive programs, 71 million sq. ft. (1.7% of U.S. office inventory) was undergoing or planned for conversion​ as of Q3. Property conversions will continue to see growing momentum in 2025, helping to alleviate elevated vacancy rates. (CBRE, Nov. 11)

  • Loan modifications and extensions, encouraged by regulators and supported by RER, have helped many distressed owners stabilize properties and avoid defaults. While 2024 was a challenging year for the office sector, markets have started to reach an inflection point as capital becomes more available, vacancy rates start to peak, return-to-office momentum grows, and transaction activity picks up. (Roundtable Weekly, Nov. 15)

  • Meanwhile, multifamily and industrial assets—especially data centers—continued to demonstrate strength, benefiting from robust tenant demand and the rapid expansion of AI-driven technologies. (CBRE, Dec. 11)

Prospects for 2025 and Trends to Watch

  • Economic growth: The CRE sector is poised to benefit from moderate economic growth and a more favorable interest rate environment. Investors are cautiously optimistic about improving liquidity and stabilizing valuations, which could unlock much-needed capital. (Commercial Observer, Dec. 10, CBRE, Dec. 11)

  • Office recovery: In San Francisco, office vacancy rates have dropped for the first time in four years—a sign that the office sector is beginning to turn the corner on the pandemic-era economy. Conversion activity is also expected to remain robust, supported by state and local incentives. (S.F. Chronicle, Dec. 16, GlobeSt., Dec. 17)

    • As RER Chair Emeritus William C. Rudin (Co-Executive Chairman, Rudin) recently told Squawk Box, “the demise of office and New York City are greatly exaggerated…there is capital, the CMBS market is back, the banks are coming back to the market,” indicating a welcome trend that could help drive an office revival across America’s downtowns.

  • The data center market will likely see explosive growth driven by artificial intelligence and cloud computing, although power constraints may limit development. Demand for data centers is expected to grow 160% by 2030, driving the buildout of the physical infrastructure needed to support the next digital revolution. (Goldman Sachs, May 14) (McKinsey, Oct. 29)

  • Political and regulatory shifts following the 2024 election—including potential changes to trade, immigration, and fiscal policies with a new Congress and presidential administration—could pose new opportunities or risks in 2025.  Collaborating with and educating policymakers on the impact these policies have on real estate will be crucial to ensuring that public policies support economic growth, job creation, housing affordability, and industry stability.

Heading into 2025, RER will continue advocating for policies that strengthen economic growth and capital availability while addressing industry challenges, including expanded tax credits for affordable housing and property conversions, permitting reform, and other initiatives that support a vibrant and resilient CRE sector.